浅议《孔雀东南飞》和《长恨歌》中的感伤爱情

感伤作为人类情感的一种特殊形态由来已久,个体的微不足道,命运的不可捉摸,加上理想与现实的矛盾,理智与情感的冲突等等,总会造成感伤的出现,并使之持续不断.如《孔雀东南飞》中的刘兰芝和焦仲卿,《长恨歌》中的唐玄宗和杨贵妃,他们都不能掌握自己的命运,最终都以悲剧收场.虽然他们的身份、社会地位不相同,但他们都同样不能把握自己的命运,都体现出了感伤.究其原因,主要是受时代及自身性格的影响.     

Type a behaviour and back pain

Type A behaviour and back pain     

贾琏:一个纨绔子弟的庸俗与善良

贾琏是《红楼梦》中一位典型的贵族公子形象。他管理家族的日常事务,对整个贾府的正常运转有重要作用。但他也徇私舞弊,有败家行径。他精神生活的空虚集中体现在对女色的贪婪上。他对女性缺少深刻的情感,但对尤二姐却有一定的真情。在为人处世上,贾琏有一定的良知,但遭到贾赦等人的压制。贾琏的人品虽算不上高尚,却高于贾府中诸多男主子,是个有缺陷但仍不失可爱的人物。贾琏的纨绔作风是当时腐化的社会环境和家庭影响的结果。     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

On the surge of altruism

To date, many arguments to explain altruistic behavior were based on `kin selection'. This note shows that evolution can sustain altruism even if the players are not necessarily genetically linked. Depending on the payoff parameters in a prisoner's dilemma game, there can be four distinct types of equilibria, for each of them the proportion of altruists in the population is described. The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for valuable comments. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

中美证券市场在险价值比较分析

在险价值作为金融行业计量市场风险的一种工具,已经被广泛接受。从期望在险价值的概念,计算出中美证券市场的期望在险价值并从实证研究中得出以下三个结论:从投资风险角度来看,中国证券市场的投资风险高于美国证券市场,同时证实上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场;就美国证券市场而言,投资风险最近十年低于整个100年的风险;上证指数和深成指数自设定以来季度在险价值服从分布,而美国整个100年的道琼斯工业指数的季度不服从分布,但近十年的季度服从分布。     

《石头记》甲戌本研究综述 ——20世纪《红楼梦》版本研究综述之一

上个世纪由胡适发现的甲戌本在<红楼梦>版本史上占有重要地位.红学家对甲戌本是否只写了16回,关于甲戌本"凡例"的真假,甲戌本独有的"顽石变美玉"的故事是原有的还是后来增补的,曹雪芹究竟是赞成<红楼梦>的书名还是赞成<石头记>的书名,以及甲戌本的血缘和发现的意义等问题作了多方面的研究.这些成果,为我们认识曹雪芹和<红楼梦>提供了借鉴.     

希望在别处——试解《毕司沃斯先生的房子》中逃离的含义

本文通过对"房子"在不同背景下的意义进行阐释,阐述了移民的后代急欲逃离这种没有文化依托的"无根人"状态,而得到梦想中的"房子"--即精神上完整的自我的决心和奋斗的历程.     

Sequential search using question-sets with bounded intersections

The paper is concerned with sequential search on a finite set: an unknown element of the finite set is to be found testing its subsets, and getting the information that the unknown element is or is not an element of the tested subset. The optimum of the strategy lengths is found under the condition that the intersection of any two different test-sets is bounded. This condition is generalized taking the intersection of any m different test-sets instead of two, and the general problem is also solved.     

Optimality of blue's in a general linear model with incorrect design matrix

We consider the Gauss-Markoff model (Y,X₀β,σ²V) and provide solutions to the following problem: What is the class of all models (Y,Xβ,σ²V) such that a specific linear representation/some linear representation/every linear representation of the BLUE of every estimable parametric functional p'β under (Y,X₀β,σ²V) is (a) an unbiased estimator, (b) a BLUE, (c) a linear minimum bias estimator and (d) best linear minimum bias estimator of p'β under (Y,Xβ,σ²V)? We also analyse the above problems, when attention is restricted to a subclass of estimable parametric functionals.