心理素质教育的教育学基础

心理素质教育有其深厚的教育学基础 :(1)教育人性观是心理素质教育必须遵循的根本思想 ;(2 )心理素质教育目标的确立必须符合素质教育总体目标的要求 ;(3)心理素质教育的内容理应是学校素质教育的重要内容 ;(4)心理素质教育模式的构建必须遵循素质教育模式的规范。     

Choice of Parametric Accelerated Life and Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data: Asymptotic Results

We discuss the impact of misspecifying fully parametric proportional hazards and accelerated life models. For the uncensored case, misspecified accelerated life models give asymptotically unbiased estimates of covariate effect, but the shape and scale parameters depend on the misspecification. The covariate, shape and scale parameters differ in the censored case. Parametric proportional hazards models do not have a sound justification for general use: estimates from misspecified models can be very biased, and misleading results for the shape of the hazard function can arise. Misspecified survival functions are more biased at the extremes than the centre. Asymptotic and first order results are compared. If a model is misspecified, the size of Wald tests will be underestimated. Use of the sandwich estimator of standard error gives tests of the correct size, but misspecification leads to a loss of power. Accelerated life models are more robust to misspecification because of their log-linear form. In preliminary data analysis, practitioners should investigate proportional hazards and accelerated life models; software is readily available for several such models.     

Semiparametric Inference Methods for General Time Scale Models

In this paper we consider semiparametric inference methods for the time scale parameters in general time scale models (Oakes, 1995, Duchesne and Lawless, 2000). We use the results of Robins and Tsiatis (1992) and Lin and Ying (1995) to derive a rank-based estimator that is more efficient and robust than the traditional minimum coefficient of variation (min CV) estimator of Kordonsky and Gerstbakh (1993) for many underlying models. Moreover, our estimator can readily handle censored samples, which is not the case with the min CV method.     

Perfect simulation for correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive

In this paper we present a perfect simulation method for obtaining perfect samples from collections of correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive. We show how to use this method to produce a perfect sample from a Boolean model conditioned to cover a set of points: in W.S. Kendall and E. Thönnes (Pattern Recognition 32(9): 1569–1586, 1999), this special case was treated in a more complicated way. The method is applied to several simple examples where exact calculations can be made, so as to check correctness of the program using ²-tests, and some small-scale experiments are carried out to explore the behaviour of the conditioned Boolean model.     

试析毛泽东社会主义目标模式的乌托邦情结

毛泽东社会主义目标模式中的乌托邦情结是导致毛泽东晚年错误的源头之一。本文试图通过对毛泽东社会主义目标模式中的乌托邦情结的历史演变以及形成的理论渊源、实践基础的分析 ,总结其经验教训 ,以求在新的历史条件之下 ,按照马克思主义所具有的与时俱进的理论品质 ,以科学的精神研究新情况 ,解决新问题 ,将中国特色的社会主义建设事业向前推进     

A Minimum Distance Estimation Approach to the Two-Sample Location-Scale Problem

As reported by Kalbfleisch and Prentice (1980), the generalized Wilcoxon test fails to detect a difference between the lifetime distributions of the male and female mice died from Thymic Leukemia. This failure is a result of the test's inability to detect a distributional difference when a location shift and a scale change exist simultaneously. In this article, we propose an estimator based on the minimization of an average distance between two independent quantile processes under a location-scale model. Large sample inference on the proposed estimator, with possible right-censorship, is discussed. The mouse leukemia data are used as an example for illustration purpose.     

宏观经济指标与上证综指长短期走势的预测

上证综合指数和宏观经济指标,如广义货币供应量、国内生产总值、出口与进口的比值,以及外商直接投资之间存在长期的均衡关系,可以通过宏观经济指标来预测上证综合指数的长期走势。误差修正模型的估计结果表明,上证综合指数具备经济"晴雨表"的功能。     

试析清末新政对中国文化与经济近代化的影响

近代中国的落后,使得中国饱受列强的欺凌,先进的中国人掀起了爱国自救运动,与此同时,清政府的上层统治者也在审时度势推行"清末新政",其对中国的文化与经济发展起到重大作用.     

对目前我国大学“文学概论”课几个问题的思考

从建国至今半个世纪以来,我国大学“文学概论”教科书在有关“社会主义现实主义”和“两结合”创作方法问题、典型理论问题、“文学反映生活”问题和“生活是文学的唯一源泉”问题上,一直显现出理论上的矛盾和学术态度上的雷同或模棱两可,并由此带来一系列的问题,这些问题值得人们去探讨和反思。     

发达国家大学城的发展模式

20世纪中叶以后,伴随着西方高等教育的大规模发展,一批以大学为主体、以城市为依托、产学研一体化的特殊区域相继而起,并逐步演绎为"自然发展型"和"规划建设型"两种典型现代意义上的大学城。其中,"自然发展型"大学城主要涵指"多校区大学"和"多元化大学"两种模式,"规划建设型"大学城主要涵括"大学科技园"和"现代大学城"两种类型;前者以英国剑桥大学城和美国加州大学城等而著名,后者以日本筑波大学城和美国密苏里大学城而闻世。