Influencing behaviour: The mindspace way

The ability to influence behaviour is central to many of the key policy challenges in areas such as health, finance and climate change. The usual route to behaviour change in economics and psychology has been to attempt to ‘change minds’ by influencing the way people think through information and incentives. There is, however, increasing evidence to suggest that ‘changing contexts’ by influencing the environments within which people act (in largely automatic ways) can have important effects on behaviour. We present a mnemonic, MINDSPACE, which gathers up the nine most robust effects that influence our behaviour in mostly automatic (rather than deliberate) ways. This framework is being used by policymakers as an accessible summary of the academic literature. To motivate further research and academic scrutiny, we provide some evidence of the effects in action and highlight some of the significant gaps in our knowledge.     

Rape culture,misogyny, and urban anxiety in NH10 and Pink

One of the most pervasive aspects of Delhi’s post-liberalization psychopathology has been everyday violence against women. The city’s rape culture was given an exceptionally sharp global focus after the horrific gang rape of Jyoti Singh on December 16, 2012. Recent Hindi cinema has begun to engage with some aspects of the capital’s misogynist urban ethos. In this paper, I look at how the Delhi subgenre of the “multiplex film” has engaged with rape culture, misogyny, and urban anxiety through a close textual and discursive analysis of two recent films—NH10 (Navdeep Singh, 2015) and Pink (Aniruddha Roy Chowdhury, 2016). Specifically, I identify how the December 16 “trigger event” and Delhi’s notorious misogyny are finding newer modes of representation through the interplay of genre and exhibition space. In what ways do these films position and imagine the “multiplex viewer”? New engagements with the figure of the consuming middle-class woman and the public discourses that surround her sexual safety and navigation of space have taken a central position in understanding the present urban psychosis of the capital. I suggest that these films and the forms of spectatorial identification that they privilege are intricately linked to the gendered spatial politics of the multiplex.     

Forward irrelevance

We investigate how to combine marginal assessments about the values that random variables assume separately into a model for the values that they assume jointly, when (i) these marginal assessments are modelled by means of coherent lower previsions and (ii) we have the additional assumption that the random variables are forward epistemically irrelevant to each other. We consider and provide arguments for two possible combinations, namely the forward irrelevant natural extension and the forward irrelevant product, and we study the relationships between them. Our treatment also uncovers an interesting connection between the behavioural theory of coherent lower previsions, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic approach to probability theory.     

Optimum covariate designs in partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) design set-ups

The use of covariates in block designs is necessary when the covariates cannot be controlled like the blocking factor in the experiment. In this paper, we consider the situation where there is some flexibility for selection in the values of the covariates. The choice of values of the covariates for a given block design attaining minimum variance for estimation of each of the parameters has attracted attention in recent times. Optimum covariate designs in simple set-ups such as completely randomised design (CRD), randomised block design (RBD) and some series of balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) have already been considered. In this paper, optimum covariate designs have been considered for the more complex set-ups of different partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) designs, which are popular among practitioners. The optimum covariate designs depend much on the methods of construction of the basic PBIB designs. Different combinatorial arrangements and tools such as orthogonal arrays, Hadamard matrices and different kinds of products of matrices viz. Khatri–Rao product, Kronecker product have been conveniently used to construct optimum covariate designs with as many covariates as possible.     

Analysis of supersaturated designs via the Dantzig selector

A supersaturated design is a design whose run size is not enough for estimating all the main effects. It is commonly used in screening experiments, where the goals are to identify sparse and dominant active factors with low cost. In this paper, we study a variable selection method via the Dantzig selector, proposed by Candes and Tao [2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p$p$ is much larger than n$n$. Annals of Statistics 35, 2313–2351], to screen important effects. A graphical procedure and an automated procedure are suggested to accompany with the method. Simulation shows that this method performs well compared to existing methods in the literature and is more efficient at estimating the model size.     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

Characterizations based on order statistics under sampling without replacement

In this paper, we consider finite populations and investigate their characterizations by regressions of order statistics under sampling without replacement. We also investigate some asymptotic results when the size of the population goes to infinity.     

Estimation in capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data

For capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data, a set of estimating equations is constructed to estimate population size and relevant parameters. These estimating equations can be solved by an algorithm similar to the EM algorithm. The proposed method is also applicable to the situation when covariates with no measurement errors have missing data. Simulation studies are used to assess the performance of the proposed estimator. The estimator is also applied to a capture–recapture experiment on the bird species Prinia flaviventris in Hong Kong. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 645–658; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

新中国六十年文化现代化的思考

文化现代化是现代化中最艰难的文化转型.新中国60年来,历史的发展赋予中国文化现代化以鲜明的时代特征.思考新中国60年来文化现代化,从文化与经济政治、时代性与民族性、本土化与全球化、一元与多元、文化事业和文化产业、人的发展与社会发展等六对矛盾着手,辨证把握中国文化现代化的特征,有助于我们深化对中国文化现代化的规律性和艰巨性的认识.     

六十年的光辉历程举世瞩目的辉煌成就

从1949年新中国成立至今,已经整整印年.新中国60年的历程,就是党领导全国各族人民探索、建立、发展中国特色社会主义的光辉历程.新中国成立60年以来,我们在经济建设、政治建设、文化建设和社会建设等各方面取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成就.总结新中国60年的宝贵经验,有助于我们坚持中国特色社会主义道路,进一步推动中国特色社会主义伟大事业向前发展.