Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

情商在体育教学中的作用

学校体育教学的现状与时代的要求尚有一定距离,体育教学的改革势在必行。阐述情商EQ在体育教学中所起的作用。     

提高体育专业学生英语学习能力的调查分析

对省内外七所高校不同体育专业学生英语学习能力的全面调查,发现体育专业学生英语能力与其心智发展特点有关;根据这种特点,采取相应的学法教法对策,使他们的英语学习能力得到迅速提高,并为特殊专业学生的英语教学提供了理论和实践依据。     

Two point priors and Γ-minimax estimating in families of uniform distributions

It is shown that when a parameter lying in a sufficiently small interval is to be estimated in a family of uniform distributions, a two point prior is least favourable under squared error loss. The unique Bayes estimator with respect to this prior is minimax. The Γ-minimax estimator is derived for sets Γ of priors consisting of all priors that give fixed probabilities to two specified subintervals of the parameter space if a two point prior is least favourable in Γ.     

Analyzing mental health evaluation: moral and ethical dimensions

Now that evaluators have been sensitized to the importance of moral and ethical issues in their work, it is time to move beyond generalities and examine the moral and ethical implications of specific evaluation models in specific settings. This paper proposes a framework that can be used to examine moral and ethical dimensions of evaluation and illustrates it by analyzing a selected model of mental health evaluation. Such a systematic identification of moral issues can improve evaluation practice both proactively, by shaping the training of evaluators, and retrospectively, by contributing to meta-evaluation.     

A probablistic analysis for an optimal screening problem

Summary We consider a lotL formed byN apparently similar unitsW ₁,…,W _N, where each of theW _i may come from one of two different populationsP ₁ andP ₂;T ₁,…,T _N denote the corresponding lifetimes. The units fromP _i undergo a failure of kindi and their survival function isS _i (t). We assume that the failure rate function are known and that the units fromP ₁ are ?substandard?: λ ₁ (t)≥λ ₂ (t), ∀t≥0. We want to putW ₁,…,W _N under a pre-operational test (burn-in test) in order to eliminate at least a great part of the substandard units and we face the problem of obtaining a rule for stopping the test under the assumption that, with the failure of a unit, it is possible to recognize the population from which the unit comes. Such a problem will be formalized as an optimal stopping problem for a suitably defined Markov process. Our study shall evidentiate some fundamental aspects of the problem and the role of the prior distribution of the (random) numberM ₀ of those units inL coming fromP ₁ (substandard). The latter distribution has a great influence on the form of the solution. This research was supported by the C.N.R. Project ?Statistica Bayesiana e Simulazione in Affidalità e Modellistica Biologica?.     

The validity of indices for rural health manpower needs assessment

Population-to-practitioner ratios have long been the primary index in the designation of health manpower shortage areas. This paper documents that application of the widely used population-to-dentist index results in understatement of the need for dental health manpower in rural areas. Through the analysis of utilization data collected from a statewide health screening program in Colorado, the practice of sole reliance on the population-to-dentist indices as an indicator of need was tested. Another measure, the area-(square miles) to-dentist ratio was formulated, examined, and found to be a more useful referent of the need for additional health manpower in rural areas. Utilization of dental services in sparsely settled rural counties of Colorado was unrelated to population-to-dentist ratios. A strong, statistically significant association of utilization with land area-to-dentist ratios was found. The findings of this analysis suggest a need for reevaluation of needs assessment methodologies used in the designation of health manpower shortage areas. Indices more sensitive to consumer circumstance than to the number of health care providers available must be considered.     

刘湛恩研究综述

刘湛恩（1895—1938）,是我国近代著名爱国教育家、沪江大学首任华人校长。自1938年以来,学界陆续开展对刘湛恩思想与活动的研究。大体来说,学界的研究主要围绕以下几个方面进行：对刘湛恩爱国活动进行概括并歌颂其爱国主义精神;对刘湛恩的教育思想与实践活动进行分析;对刘湛恩与沪江大学的关系进行探讨。有关刘湛恩的研究成果不断丰富和深入,但仍存在一定的研究空间。