An outlier detection scheme for dynamical sequential datasets

Outlier detection plays an important role in the pre-treatment of sequential datasets to obtain pure valuable data. This paper proposes an outlier detection scheme for dynamical sequential datasets. First, the conception of forward outlier factor(FOF) and backward outlier factor(BOF) are employed to measure an object’s similarity shared with its sequentially adjacent objects. The object that shows no similarity with its sequential neighbors is labeled as suspicious outliers, which will be treated subsequently to judge whether it is really an outlier in the dataset. Second, the sequentially adjacent suspicious outliers are defined as suspicious outlier series(SOS), then the expected path representing the ideal transition path through the suspicious outliers in the SOS and the measured path representing the real path through all the objects in the SOS are employed, and the ratio of the length of the expected path to that of the measured path indicates whether there exist outliers in the SOS. Third, in the case that there exist outliers in the SOS, if there are N suspicious outliers in the SOS, then 2^N ? 2 remaining path will be generated by removing k(0 < k < N) suspicious outliers and sequentially connecting the remaining ones. The dynamical sequential outlier factor(DSOF) is employed to represent the ratio of the length of measured path of the considered remaining path to the that of the the expected path of the corresponding SOS, and the degree of the objects removed in a remaining path being outliers is indicated by the DSOF. The proposed outlier detection scheme is conducted from a dynamical perspective, and breaks the tight relation between being an outlier and being not similar with adjacent objects. Experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, and the experimental results verify that the proposed scheme has higher detection quality for sequential dataset. In addition, the proposed outlier detection scheme is not dependent on the size of dataset and needs no prior information about the distribution of the data.     

Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic error distance

ABSTRACT

We propose point forecast accuracy measures based directly on distance of the forecast-error c.d.f. from the unit step function at 0 (“stochastic error distance,” or SED). We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between SED and standard predictive loss functions, and we show that all such loss functions can be written as weighted SEDs. The leading case is absolute error loss. Among other things, this suggests shifting attention away from conditional-mean forecasts and toward conditional-median forecasts.     

美国对伊朗摩萨台政府政策的演变

在伊朗民族主义支持下,摩萨台政府对英伊石油公司实行国有化,由是导致了英伊的石油之争,为美国势力渗透到伊朗及中东提供了机会。为了遏制苏联和共产主义扩张,美国政府试图通过各种手段解决英伊石油争端,杜鲁门政府对摩萨台政府采取有限或中立政策,而艾森豪威尔政府则推翻了摩萨台政府。尽管两届美国政府对摩萨台政府的政策有着显著不同,但事实上存在着很大的连续性。     

博物馆室内与室外景观形态的连续性

室内设计是建筑设计的重要组成和延续 ,室内———建筑———城市的设计应当成为一个完整的系统。文章提出将博物馆室内空间作为城市空间的重要组成这一论点 ,从“城市意象”的角度 ,结合实例解读室内与室外景观形态的连续这种系统的、具有可持续特征的设计方法 ,探讨现代室内设计在创造和发展城市景观形象中的角色和地位。     

维特根斯坦论持续的命名活动

为弄清维特根斯坦后期哲学的哲学史地位,通过对语言游戏的思辨,发现在持续的命名活动中,语言游戏找到一个“基础”,又找到摆脱这样一种“基础”的方法,这可以视作隐藏在语言游戏中的“反基础主义”作法。分析结果表明,在这样的语言游戏中,应注意区别三种关系,即整体的语言真理性的传递与由各种语词组成的整体存在之间的关系、我们对语词用法的观看与这种观看对我们行为的影响之间的关系、我们对名称的一次使用与持续使用之间的关系。     

汉语方言“VVX”式动词重叠的分布与特点

动词重叠是汉语的一大特色,VVX式动词重叠是汉语方言动词重叠式中比较有特色的一种。“VV”和“X”相互配合使“VVX”动词重叠式可以独立运用,与其他动词重叠式相比,“X”对“VVX”式的语法意义起到了细化的作用。我们以“X”的性质为线索,来考察不同性质的“VVX”动词重叠式的分布与特点。     

携带着未来的女性历史缔造——21世纪海内外华文女作家长篇小说创作转型研究

21世纪以来,海内外华文女作家中长篇小说创作不约而同地转型,即从现实批判转向历史缔造。体现了女性写作从女性意识、性别意识,向家国意识、人类意识的观念转型,从女性血缘、情感史,向人类心灵、经验史的思维转型。这种立足现实指向未来的历史叙事,其意义在于能够构成人类多重生存时空＂共时性＂的经验,使现实具有纵深性与延续性的双向延展,进而进入到从女性的生存现状、精神形态到探寻个体灵魂真相的深度书写。这是海内外华文女性文学创造性意识的新品质,标志着海内外华文女作家不仅以女性个体生命体验批判男权文化伦理观念,进而且以超越自我性别的姿态在世界文学建构中确立华文女性文学的位置,是非常值得认真研究的。     

黑格尔艺术终结论之我见

从本质上讲。黑格尔的艺术终结论并没有给艺术宣判死刑,而只是宣布了艺术作为人类最高旨趣和绝对真理之崇高地位的终结。在理论层面上,艺术终结论先验地预设于黑格尔思辨的哲学体系中;就现实意义而言。艺术终结论是黑格尔对现代文明下的艺术危机的敏锐反思和深刻洞见。“终结”之后的艺术将何去何从尚难预测,不过可以肯定的是艺术虽然在一定程度上失去了真理和意义的神圣维度,但作为人之依附物,它将始终会在审美（超越）与生活（功利）的二律背反中不断向前发展。     

凸函数的几种不同定义及作用

凸函数是一类比较重要的函数,在数学规划中有着广泛的应用,考虑到凸函数与连续性、可导性之间的联系及凸函数在不等式证明方面的作用和意义,本文提出了凸函数的几种不同定义,并讨论了它们之间的等价性及凸函数的有关性质和它在不等式方面的相关应用。由于上凸函数和下凸函数统称为凸函数,所以本文所讨论的凸函数都是指下凸函数。     

中国农村居民收入流动性研究——基于绝对收入流动性的视角

利用CHNS的六轮农村居民收入调查数据,从绝对收入流动的视角对中国农村居民的收入流动性及其来源进行了分析.研究发现:(1)中国农村居民的绝对收入流动性处于比较高的水平,并且长期内的收入流动性程度要高于短期.(2)以1996年和2003年为拐点,中国农村居民的绝对收入流动性呈现出先下降后上升再下降的三阶段趋势特征.同时,中国农村居民的绝对收入流动性与同期相对收入流动性的变动趋势相同.(3)中国农村居民的绝对收入流动性主要来源于农村内部各家庭间收入地位的变动,收入增长的贡献程度次之,而农村内部收入差距的扩大对绝对收入流动性的影响有限.