真实固定效应空间随机前沿模型的贝叶斯估计

忽略个体效应和空间效应会严重干扰效率测算,其中忽略个体效应使得技术无效率项发生偏移,忽略空间相关性导致估计量有偏且不一致。本文基于真实固定效应随机前沿模型（引入了个体效应）,引入因变量和双边误差项的空间滞后项,构建了适用性更佳的真实固定效应空间随机前沿模型。对模型进行组内变化以消除额外参数,使用贝叶斯方法（需推导未知参数的后验分布并执行MCMC抽样）估计参数和技术效率。该方法真正克服了额外参数问题,比同类方法直观、简便。数值模拟结果表明,本文方法对参数、个体截距项及技术无效率项的估计精度均较高,且增加样本容量,估计精度变优。     

Supporting Disadvantaged Young People into Work: Insights from the Capability Approach

The Capability Approach (CA) offers a perspective on the employment activation of young people that is concerned with their freedom to make choices that they value rather than focusing solely on outcomes, such as having to take any job. It incorporates empowerment and the individual and external conversion factors that influence the conversion of resources into functionings for young people, such as getting a job that they value. This article considers the implications of using the CA as a lens for analyzing youth activation polices. A more capability informed approach to employment activation would not measure success solely by the transition into work, but rather by whether it has improved the young person's capabilities, and might focus, for example, on more sustainable and valued careers and develop individuals' freedom of choice in the labour market. Using data from two UK case studies of third sector organizations that support young people into work, it explores these issues empirically, including the extent to which these employment activation programmes, in their current form, can enhance the capabilities of beneficiaries. Conclusions on the implications of a CA for employment activation are made.     

Efficient regression modeling for correlated and overdispersed count data

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to propose an efficient estimation procedure in a marginal mean regression model for longitudinal count data and to develop a hypothesis test for detecting the presence of overdispersion. We extend the matrix expansion idea of quadratic inference functions to the negative binomial regression framework that entails accommodating both the within-subject correlation and overdispersion issue. Theoretical and numerical results show that the proposed procedure yields a more efficient estimator asymptotically than the one ignoring either the within-subject correlation or overdispersion. When the overdispersion is absent in data, the proposed method might hinder the estimation efficiency in practice, yet the Poisson regression based regression model is fitted to the data sufficiently well. Therefore, we construct the hypothesis test that recommends an appropriate model for the analysis of the correlated count data. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed test can identify the effective model consistently. The proposed procedure is also applied to a transportation safety study and recommends the proposed negative binomial regression model.     

Statistical Estimates for Modified Gravitation Model by Aggregated Data

A nonlinear regression model for forecasting of passenger flow between various spatial points (towns) is described. Unknown parameters are estimated using aggregated data when the information about a number of the departed passengers from each town is available only. For estimation, the least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used. Numerical examples are performed to illustrate the proposed approaches.     

Convolution power kernels for density estimation

We propose a new type of non-parametric density estimators fitted to random variables with lower or upper-bounded support. To illustrate the method, we focus on nonnegative random variables. The estimators are constructed using kernels which are densities of empirical means of m i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with expectation 1. The exponent m   plays the role of the bandwidth. We study the pointwise mean square error and propose a pointwise adaptive estimator. The risk of the adaptive estimator satisfies an almost oracle inequality. A noteworthy result is that the adaptive rate is in correspondence with the smoothness properties of the unknown density as a function on (0,+∞)$(0,+\infty )$. The adaptive estimators are illustrated on simulated data. We compare our approach with the classical kernel estimators.     

Local asymptotic minimax theory for block-decreasing densities

In this paper, we study Lebesgue densities on (0,∞)^d$(0,\infty {)}^d$ that are non-increasing in each coordinate, while keeping all other coordinates fixed, from the perspective of local asymptotic minimax lower bound theory. In particular, we establish a local optimal rate of convergence of the order n^−1/(d+2)$n^{-1/(d+2)}$.     

Kernel adjusted nonparametric regression

In this paper we propose and study a new kernel regression estimator in which the kernel is taken from a properly adapted location-scale family of the design distribution. We show that, while the original smoothing may be performed with sub-optimal bandwidths, adaptation of proper scale parameters yields overall optimal estimators. Unlike traditional smoothing methodology, our approach does not aim at estimating pivotal higher order derivatives.     

Regularization and variable selection for infinite variance autoregressive models

Autoregressive models with infinite variance are of great importance in modeling heavy-tailed time series and have been well studied. In this paper, we propose a penalized method to conduct model selection for autoregressive models with innovations having Pareto-like distributions with index α∈(0,2)$\alpha \in (\mathrm{0,2})$. By combining the least absolute deviation loss function and the adaptive lasso penalty, the proposed method is able to consistently identify the true model and at the same time produce efficient estimators with a convergence rate of n^−1/α$n^{-1/\alpha }$. In addition, our approach provides a unified way to conduct variable selection for autoregressive models with finite or infinite variance. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of our method.     

Complexity leadership in bureaucratic forms of organizing: A meso model

We consider Complexity Leadership Theory [Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R., & McKelvey, B. (2007). Complexity Leadership Theory: Shifting leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era. The Leadership Quarterly.] in contexts of bureaucratic forms of organizing to describe how adaptive dynamics can work in combination with administrative functions to generate emergence and change in organizations. Complexity leadership approaches are consistent with the central assertion of the meso argument that leadership is multi-level, processual, contextual, and interactive. In this paper we focus on the adaptive function, an interactive process between adaptive leadership (an agentic behavior) and complexity dynamics (non-agentic social dynamics) that generates emergent outcomes (e.g., innovation, learning, adaptability) for the firm. Propositions regarding the actions of complexity leadership in bureaucratic forms of organizing are offered.     

An estimation of distribution algorithm for lot-streaming flow shop problems with setup times

Lot-streaming flow shops have important applications in different industries including textile, plastic, chemical, semiconductor and many others. This paper considers an n-job m-machine lot-streaming flow shop scheduling problem with sequence-dependent setup times under both the idling and no-idling production cases. The objective is to minimize the maximum completion time or makespan. To solve this important practical problem, a novel estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) is proposed with a job permutation based representation. In the proposed EDA, an efficient initialization scheme based on the NEH heuristic is presented to construct an initial population with a certain level of quality and diversity. An estimation of a probabilistic model is constructed to direct the algorithm search towards good solutions by taking into account both job permutation and similar blocks of jobs. A simple but effective local search is added to enhance the intensification capability. A diversity controlling mechanism is applied to maintain the diversity of the population. In addition, a speed-up method is presented to reduce the computational effort needed for the local search technique and the NEH-based heuristics. A comparative evaluation is carried out with the best performing algorithms from the literature. The results show that the proposed EDA is very effective in comparison after comprehensive computational and statistical analyses.