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591.
R.S. Singh 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》1978,2(1):53-62
This paper deals with a sequence-compound estimation. The component problem is the squared error loss estimation of θ?[a,b] based on an observation X whose p.d.f. is of the form . For each a class of sequence-compound estimators is exhibited whose compound risk (average of risks) up to stage n differs from the Bayes envelope (in the component problem) w.r.t. the empiric distribution Gn of the parameters involved up to stage n by a quantity of order O(n?δt) for a δ>0. It is also shown that at any stage i the difference of the risk of ψ?i and the risk of the Bayes response w.r.t. Gi?1 is O(i?δt). Examples of the above type of families are given where δ is min{1,} and t is arbitrarily close to . Here it may be worthwhile to mention that a rate or better has not yet been obtained even in a very special family of densities. 相似文献
592.
Jussi K. Vaurio 《Risk analysis》1984,4(2):103-115
Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants , it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants. 相似文献
593.
594.
The main purpose of this article is to assess the performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models when occasional level shifts occur in the time series under study. A random level-shift time series model that allows the level of the process to change occasionally is introduced. Between two consecutive changes, the process behaves like the usual autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. In practice, a series generated from a random level-shift ARMA (RLARMA) model may be misspecified as an ARIMA process. The efficiency of this ARIMA approximation with respect to estimation of current level and forecasting is investigated. The results of examining a special case of an RLARMA model indicate that the ARIMA approximations are inadequate for estimating the current level, but they are robust for forecasting future observations except when there is a very low frequency of level shifts or when the series are highly negatively correlated. A level-shift detection procedure is presented to handle the low-frequency level-shift phenomena, and its usefulness in building models for forecasting is demonstrated. 相似文献
595.
596.
《商业与经济统计学杂志》2013,31(4):484-500
In this article I inquire about the effects initial wealth has on black–white differences in early employment careers. I set up a dynamic model in which individuals simultaneously search for a job and accumulate wealth, and fit it to data from the National Longitudinal Survey (1979-cohort). Regime changes and decompositions of racial differences reveal that differences in the labor market environment and in preferences account fully for racial gaps in wealth and in wages persisting several years after high school graduation. Differences in initial wealth partially explain differences in early employment careers. 相似文献
597.
In this article, we introduce a new estimator for the generalized Pareto distribution, which is based on the maximum likelihood estimation and the goodness of fit. The asymptotic normality of the new estimator is shown and a small simulation. From the simulation, the performance of the new estimator is roughly comparable with maximum likelihood for positive values of the shape parameter and often much better than maximum likelihood for negative values. 相似文献
598.
We propose to combine two quite powerful ideas that have recently appeared in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature: adaptive
Metropolis samplers and delayed rejection. The ergodicity of the resulting non-Markovian sampler is proved, and the efficiency
of the combination is demonstrated with various examples. We present situations where the combination outperforms the original
methods: adaptation clearly enhances efficiency of the delayed rejection algorithm in cases where good proposal distributions
are not available. Similarly, delayed rejection provides a systematic remedy when the adaptation process has a slow start. 相似文献
599.
Phased local search for the maximum clique problem 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Wayne Pullan 《Journal of Combinatorial Optimization》2006,12(3):303-323
This paper introduces Phased Local Search (PLS), a new stochastic reactive dynamic local search algorithm for the maximum
clique problem. (PLS) interleaves sub-algorithms which alternate between sequences of iterative improvement, during which
suitable vertices are added to the current clique, and plateau search, where vertices of the current clique are swapped with
vertices not contained in the current clique. The sub-algorithms differ in their vertex selection techniques in that selection
can be solely based on randomly selecting a vertex, randomly selecting within highest vertex degree or randomly selecting
within vertex penalties that are dynamically adjusted during the search. In addition, the perturbation mechanism used to overcome
search stagnation differs between the sub-algorithms. (PLS) has no problem instance dependent parameters and achieves state-of-the-art
performance for the maximum clique problem over a large range of the commonly used DIMACS benchmark instances. 相似文献
600.
A. J. Copas & V. T. Farewell 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》1998,161(3):385-396
In the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSSAL), it is recognized that non-response is unlikely to be ignorable. In some surveys, in addition to the response variables of interest, there may also be an 'enthusiasm-to-respond' variable which is expected to be related to the probabilities of item and unit response. Inference techniques to deal with non-ignorable non-response, based on a propensity-to-respond score, can be developed when there are both item and unit non-responders. For the NATSSAL data, an interviewer-measured interviewee embarrassment variable is combined with demographics to produce a score for the propensity to respond. The necessary likelihood development is outlined and alternative approaches to interval estimation are compared. The methodology is illustrated through an estimation of virginity from NATSSAL data. 相似文献