Adaptive positive and negative runs test

As a nonparametric randomness test, the positive and negative runs test is widely used in practice due to the simplicity of its procedures. The test can lose efficiency if the alternative distribution is symmetrical at 0.5. In addition, the test can only be applied to test the randomness of a sequence from the uniform distribution. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive positive and negative runs test method to maximize the power function by choosing the optimal cut point. Also, the test is extended to check the randomness of a sequence generated from any other given distributions. Furthermore, we derive the exact distribution and obtain the asymptotical critical values of the proposed test statistics. Compared with the existed test, the efficiency of the proposed adaptive positive and negative runs test is competitive through simulation study.     

Design and analysis considerations for comparing dynamic treatment regimens with binary outcomes from sequential multiple assignment randomized trials

In behavioral, educational and medical practice, interventions are often personalized over time using strategies that are based on individual behaviors and characteristics and changes in symptoms, severity, or adherence that are a result of one's treatment. Such strategies that more closely mimic real practice, are known as dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs). A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is a multi-stage trial design that can be used to construct effective DTRs. This article reviews a simple to use ‘weighted and replicated’ estimation technique for comparing DTRs embedded in a SMART design using logistic regression for a binary, end-of-study outcome variable. Based on a Wald test that compares two embedded DTRs of interest from the ‘weighted and replicated’ regression model, a sample size calculation is presented with a corresponding user-friendly applet to aid in the process of designing a SMART. The analytic models and sample size calculations are presented for three of the more commonly used two-stage SMART designs. Simulations for the sample size calculation show the empirical power reaches expected levels. A data analysis example with corresponding code is presented in the appendix using data from a SMART developing an effective DTR in autism.     

The Bayesian elastic net regression

A Bayesian elastic net approach is presented for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression models. A simple Gibbs sampling algorithm was developed for posterior inference using a location-scale mixture representation of the Bayesian elastic net prior for the regression coefficients. The penalty parameters are chosen through an empirical method that maximizes the data marginal likelihood. Both simulated and real data examples show that the proposed method performs well in comparison to the other approaches.     

Two-step variable selection in partially linear additive models with time series data

Lots of semi-parametric and nonparametric models are used to fit nonlinear time series data. They include partially linear time series models, nonparametric additive models, and semi-parametric single index models. In this article, we focus on fitting time series data by partially linear additive model. Combining the orthogonal series approximation and the adaptive sparse group LASSO regularization, we select the important variables between and within the groups simultaneously. Specially, we propose a two-step algorithm to obtain the grouped sparse estimators. Numerical studies show that the proposed method outperforms LASSO method in both fitting and forecasting. An empirical analysis is used to illustrate the methodology.     

Some results for maximum likelihood estimation of adjusted relative risks

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of relative risks via log-binomial regression requires a restricted parameter space. Computation via non linear programming is simple to implement and has high convergence rate. We show that the optimization problem is well posed (convex domain and convex objective) and provide a variance formula along with a methodology for obtaining standard errors and prediction intervals which account for estimates on the boundary of the parameter space. We performed simulations under several scenarios already used in the literature in order to assess the performance of ML and of two other common estimation methods.     

Supporting Disadvantaged Young People into Work: Insights from the Capability Approach

The Capability Approach (CA) offers a perspective on the employment activation of young people that is concerned with their freedom to make choices that they value rather than focusing solely on outcomes, such as having to take any job. It incorporates empowerment and the individual and external conversion factors that influence the conversion of resources into functionings for young people, such as getting a job that they value. This article considers the implications of using the CA as a lens for analyzing youth activation polices. A more capability informed approach to employment activation would not measure success solely by the transition into work, but rather by whether it has improved the young person's capabilities, and might focus, for example, on more sustainable and valued careers and develop individuals' freedom of choice in the labour market. Using data from two UK case studies of third sector organizations that support young people into work, it explores these issues empirically, including the extent to which these employment activation programmes, in their current form, can enhance the capabilities of beneficiaries. Conclusions on the implications of a CA for employment activation are made.     

Convolution power kernels for density estimation

We propose a new type of non-parametric density estimators fitted to random variables with lower or upper-bounded support. To illustrate the method, we focus on nonnegative random variables. The estimators are constructed using kernels which are densities of empirical means of m i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with expectation 1. The exponent m   plays the role of the bandwidth. We study the pointwise mean square error and propose a pointwise adaptive estimator. The risk of the adaptive estimator satisfies an almost oracle inequality. A noteworthy result is that the adaptive rate is in correspondence with the smoothness properties of the unknown density as a function on (0,+∞)$(0,+\infty )$. The adaptive estimators are illustrated on simulated data. We compare our approach with the classical kernel estimators.     

Kernel adjusted nonparametric regression

In this paper we propose and study a new kernel regression estimator in which the kernel is taken from a properly adapted location-scale family of the design distribution. We show that, while the original smoothing may be performed with sub-optimal bandwidths, adaptation of proper scale parameters yields overall optimal estimators. Unlike traditional smoothing methodology, our approach does not aim at estimating pivotal higher order derivatives.     

Regularization and variable selection for infinite variance autoregressive models

Autoregressive models with infinite variance are of great importance in modeling heavy-tailed time series and have been well studied. In this paper, we propose a penalized method to conduct model selection for autoregressive models with innovations having Pareto-like distributions with index α∈(0,2)$\alpha \in (\mathrm{0,2})$. By combining the least absolute deviation loss function and the adaptive lasso penalty, the proposed method is able to consistently identify the true model and at the same time produce efficient estimators with a convergence rate of n^−1/α$n^{-1/\alpha }$. In addition, our approach provides a unified way to conduct variable selection for autoregressive models with finite or infinite variance. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of our method.     

Complexity leadership in bureaucratic forms of organizing: A meso model

We consider Complexity Leadership Theory [Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R., & McKelvey, B. (2007). Complexity Leadership Theory: Shifting leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era. The Leadership Quarterly.] in contexts of bureaucratic forms of organizing to describe how adaptive dynamics can work in combination with administrative functions to generate emergence and change in organizations. Complexity leadership approaches are consistent with the central assertion of the meso argument that leadership is multi-level, processual, contextual, and interactive. In this paper we focus on the adaptive function, an interactive process between adaptive leadership (an agentic behavior) and complexity dynamics (non-agentic social dynamics) that generates emergent outcomes (e.g., innovation, learning, adaptability) for the firm. Propositions regarding the actions of complexity leadership in bureaucratic forms of organizing are offered.