适应性网络空间抽样的设计及估计研究

随着大数据背景下抽样环境复杂化,特别是3S技术（遥感技术、地理信息系统和全球定位系统）日趋成熟,越来越多社会经济问题涉及空间抽样,其样本呈现出规模相对稀少、分布不均匀、局部聚集的特征,使得传统抽样调查面临着严重挑战。本文介绍了适应性抽样技术应用于空间网络环境的基本原理、主要操作步骤和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗估计推断,并以广州市天河区的商户抽样为例讨论实际操作中应注意的问题,以期为流动人口、环境污染、区域经济研究等方面调查提供理论支撑和实证方法参考。     

小微企业网贷风险定价模型研究

对小微企业网贷平台的运营模式进行深入分析,发现其运行机制包括需求的同质化解构、需求的模块化生产、需求的风险评估、个性化需求加总,在此基础上构建小微企业网贷风险定价模型。为验证模型的有效性,抽取国内典型互联网金融平台“人人贷”上近期发生的小微企业标的并进行风险定价,将定价结果与实际利率进行比较,发现该模型适用于“卖方市场”的小微企业网贷,能够提供差异化的贷款利率,从而向小微企业提供个性化的网贷产品。     

河南农村区域经济发展差异及对策

以河南108个县(市)为研究单元,利用县域农民人均纯收入指标,将河南农村社会经济发展状况划分为3大经济区域。通过经济计量方法定量分析了不同经济区域各产业发展与农民收入之间关系,结合各经济区域分布现状格局以及社会经济总体状况之间存在的差异,提出了河南新农村建设应遵循分类规划、分区发展、差异目标的建议。     

提高女性退休年龄对其养老金的影响研究

提高女性退休年龄,实行男女同龄退休,不仅仅是基于性别平等,保障女性权益,更重要地是提高女性退休后的生活质量和水平。文章用数学方法测算出提高女性退休年龄后,对女性退休后的养老金产生的实际影响。     

动漫人才培养模式刍论

我国目前已经出现了波澜不惊的动漫产业潮,但该产业的人才问题已成为制约其健康发展的瓶颈,用何种方式输送该产业发展急需的人才资源,已成为动漫产业发展中亟须解决的迫切问题。简而言之,漫画人才的培养,宜实行“漫画基础人才 项目创造引导”的模式。网游人才和动画人才的培养则可以采用社会类和院校类两种培养机制。     

Navigating health care: brokerage and access for undocumented Latino immigrants under the 2010 Affordable Care Act

ABSTRACT

Brokerage is a prominent mechanism that explains access for Latino immigrants to many American institutions. However, few studies examine the dual nature of brokerage in answering questions on access to health care for undocumented Latino immigrants. The growing importance of Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) and ethnic navigators connecting immigrants to health care under the 2010 Affordable Care Act calls attention to the duality of brokers and its role in access. The study draws from 44 in-depth interviews with providers, clinic directors, navigators, and immigrant patients and two years of fieldwork in FQHCs in California’s San Francisco Bay Area (2011–2013). Results show that brokers enable access through coaching and myth-busting but they also hinder it through scrutiny and bureaucratic filtering. The widespread dependence on brokerage, I argue, leads to ersatz brokerage, such as when providers navigate the health-care system for the undocumented without the appropriate linguistic resources or coordination. Furthermore, the study shows that the duality in brokerage generates misinformation, churning, and alienation. Understanding the relational processes that both include and exclude vulnerable populations from needed services enhances theories of immigrant integration and can help design more efficient policies and address inequalities related to documentation status.     

论图书馆的信息推送服务

信息推送服务是一种个性化的主动信息服务,图书馆在服务过程中必须贯彻以人为本、主动服务、一站式服务、个性化服务理念;网络环境下,基于RSS的信息推送模式比较好的解决信息推送的技术手段,图书馆根据学校的特性选择信息,建立用户需求库、信息资源库,定制用户界面并协同数据库完成信息推送。因此,以用户为中心的信息推送技术必将成为未来信息获取技术的一个重要发展方向。     

Bayesian robustness of the compound Poisson distribution under bidimensional prior: an application to the collective risk model

The distribution of the aggregate claims in one year plays an important role in Actuarial Statistics for computing, for example, insurance premiums when both the number and size of the claims must be implemented into the model. When the number of claims follows a Poisson distribution the aggregated distribution is called the compound Poisson distribution. In this article we assume that the claim size follows an exponential distribution and later we make an extensive study of this model by assuming a bidimensional prior distribution for the parameters of the Poisson and exponential distribution with marginal gamma. This study carries us to obtain expressions for net premiums, marginal and posterior distributions in terms of some well-known special functions used in statistics. Later, a Bayesian robustness study of this model is made. Bayesian robustness on bidimensional models was deeply treated in the 1990s, producing numerous results, but few applications dealing with this problem can be found in the literature.     

Bayesian elastic net single index quantile regression

Single index model conditional quantile regression is proposed in order to overcome the dimensionality problem in nonparametric quantile regression. In the proposed method, the Bayesian elastic net is suggested for single index quantile regression for estimation and variables selection. The Gaussian process prior is considered for unknown link function and a Gibbs sampler algorithm is adopted for posterior inference. The results of the simulation studies and numerical example indicate that our propose method, BENSIQReg, offers substantial improvements over two existing methods, SIQReg and BSIQReg. The BENSIQReg has consistently show a good convergent property, has the least value of median of mean absolute deviations and smallest standard deviations, compared to the other two methods.     

Optimal and lead-in adaptive allocation for binary outcomes: A comparison of Bayesian methods

We compare posterior and predictive estimators and probabilities in response-adaptive randomization designs for two- and three-group clinical trials with binary outcomes. Adaptation based upon posterior estimates are discussed, as are two predictive probability algorithms: one using the traditional definition, the other using a skeptical distribution. Optimal and natural lead-in designs are covered. Simulation studies show that efficacy comparisons lead to more adaptation than center comparisons, though at some power loss, skeptically predictive efficacy comparisons and natural lead-in approaches lead to less adaptation but offer reduced allocation variability. Though nuanced, these results help clarify the power-adaptation trade-off in adaptive randomization.