Hit and run ARMS: adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling with hit and run random direction

An algorithm for sampling from non-log-concave multivariate distributions is proposed, which improves the adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling (ARMS) algorithm by incorporating the hit and run sampling. It is not rare that the ARMS is trapped away from some subspace with significant probability in the support of the multivariate distribution. While the ARMS updates samples only in the directions that are parallel to dimensions, our proposed method, the hit and run ARMS (HARARMS), updates samples in arbitrary directions determined by the hit and run algorithm, which makes it almost not possible to be trapped in any isolated subspaces. The HARARMS performs the same as ARMS in a single dimension while more reliable in multidimensional spaces. Its performance is illustrated by a Bayesian free-knot spline regression example. We showed that it overcomes the well-known ‘lethargy’ property and decisively find the global optimal number and locations of the knots of the spline function.     

Inference after variable selection using restricted permutation methods

When confronted with multiple covariates and a response variable, analysts sometimes apply a variable‐selection algorithm to the covariate‐response data to identify a subset of covariates potentially associated with the response, and then wish to make inferences about parameters in a model for the marginal association between the selected covariates and the response. If an independent data set were available, the parameters of interest could be estimated by using standard inference methods to fit the postulated marginal model to the independent data set. However, when applied to the same data set used by the variable selector, standard (“naive”) methods can lead to distorted inferences. The authors develop testing and interval estimation methods for parameters reflecting the marginal association between the selected covariates and response variable, based on the same data set used for variable selection. They provide theoretical justification for the proposed methods, present results to guide their implementation, and use simulations to assess and compare their performance to a sample‐splitting approach. The methods are illustrated with data from a recent AIDS study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 625–644; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Spatially-adaptive Penalties for Spline Fitting

The paper studies spline fitting with a roughness penalty that adapts to spatial heterogeneity in the regression function. The estimates are p th degree piecewise polynomials with p − 1 continuous derivatives. A large and fixed number of knots is used and smoothing is achieved by putting a quadratic penalty on the jumps of the p th derivative at the knots. To be spatially adaptive, the logarithm of the penalty is itself a linear spline but with relatively few knots and with values at the knots chosen to minimize the generalized cross validation (GCV) criterion. This locally-adaptive spline estimator is compared with other spline estimators in the literature such as cubic smoothing splines and knot-selection techniques for least squares regression. Our estimator can be interpreted as an empirical Bayes estimate for a prior allowing spatial heterogeneity. In cases of spatially heterogeneous regression functions, empirical Bayes confidence intervals using this prior achieve better pointwise coverage probabilities than confidence intervals based on a global-penalty parameter. The method is developed first for univariate models and then extended to additive models.     

Preliminary phi-divergence test estimators for linear restrictions in a logistic regression model

The problem of estimation of the parameters in a logistic regression model is considered under multicollinearity situation when it is suspected that the parameter of the logistic regression model may be restricted to a subspace. We study the properties of the preliminary test based on the minimum ϕ -divergence estimator as well as in the ϕ -divergence test statistic. The minimum ϕ -divergence estimator is a natural extension of the maximum likelihood estimator and the ϕ -divergence test statistics is a family of the test statistics for testing the hypothesis that the regression coefficients may be restricted to a subspace.     

英译汉语篇翻译中评分量表的研发

通过设计问卷来调查英译汉语篇翻译的标准,并以问卷调查的结果为依据给英译汉语篇翻译研发了一个分析性的评分量表。实验性地测试了研发的量表:通过计算两个评分员给出分数的α相关系数来判断量表的信度;用回归分析来判断量表分数解释的效度。统计分析的数据表明此量表具有较高的信度和效度。     

Semiparametric hidden Markov model with non-parametric regression

The hidden Markov model regression (HMMR) has been popularly used in many fields such as gene expression and activity recognition. However, the traditional HMMR requires the strong linearity assumption for the emission model. In this article, we propose a hidden Markov model with non-parametric regression (HMM-NR), where the mean and variance of emission model are unknown smooth functions. The new semiparametric model might greatly reduce the modeling bias and thus enhance the applicability of the traditional hidden Markov model regression. We propose an estimation procedure for the transition probability matrix and the non-parametric mean and variance functions by combining the ideas of the EM algorithm and the kernel regression. Simulation studies and a real data set application are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new estimation procedure.     

A robust class of homoscedastic nonlinear regression models

In this paper, we examine a nonlinear regression (NLR) model with homoscedastic errors which follows a flexible class of two-piece distributions based on the scale mixtures of normal (TP-SMN) family. The objective of using this family is to develop a robust NLR model. The TP-SMN is a rich class of distributions that covers symmetric/asymmetric and lightly/heavy-tailed distributions and is an alternative family to the well-known scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) family studied by Branco and Dey [35]. A key feature of this study is using a new suitable hierarchical representation of the family to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of model parameters via an EM-type algorithm. The performances of the proposed robust model are demonstrated using simulated and some natural real datasets and also compared to other well-known NLR models.     

Wavelet-based estimators of multivariable mean regression function with long-memory data

Wavelet analysis has been proved to be a powerful statistical technique in the non parametric regression. In this paper, we propose non linear wavelet-based estimators for multivariable mean regression function with long-memory data. We also provide an asymptotic expansion for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of the function estimators. This MISE expansion still works even when the underlying mean regression function is only piecewise smooth. This paper extends the corresponding results in the literature for single variable to multivariable case.     

Local linear estimation for covariate-adjusted varying-coefficient models

We consider local linear estimation of varying-coefficient models in which the data are observed with multiplicative distortion which depends on an observed confounding variable. At first, each distortion function is estimated by non parametrically regressing the absolute value of contaminated variable on the confounder. Secondly, the coefficient functions are estimated by the local least square method on the basis of the predictors of latent variables, which are obtained in terms of the estimated distorting functions. We also establish the asymptotic normality of our proposed estimators and discuss the inference about the distortion function. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators and a real dataset of Pima Indians diabetes is analyzed for illustration.