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151.
应用交通流宏观连续模型,模拟上下游信号灯作异步周期变化的协调信号灯路段的交通流动,经数值计算比较,选择改进Murman格式求解.结果表明:改进Murman格式能准确捕捉交通流中无振荡“激波”位置. 相似文献
152.
Suen W 《Journal of population economics》1997,10(4):443-461
This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model
is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent
to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative
income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively
related to the rate of decline of earnings with age.
JEL classification: C24, J14, J26
Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997 相似文献
153.
The maximum likelihood estimation for the critical points of the failure rate and the mean residual life function are presented
in the case of mixture inverse Gaussian model. Several important data sets are analyzed from this point of view. For each
of the data sets, Bootstrapping is used to construct confidence intervals of the critical points. 相似文献
154.
Dietary and Inhalation Intake of Lead and Estimation of Blood Lead Levels in Adults and Children in Kanpur, India 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This research was initiated to study lead levels in various food items in the city of Kanpur, India, to assess the dietary intake of lead and to estimate blood lead (PbB) levels, a biomarker of lead toxicity. For this purpose, sampling of food products, laboratory analysis, and computational exercises were undertaken. Specifically, six food groups (leafy vegetables, nonleafy vegetables, fruits, pulses, cereals, and milk), drinking water, and lead air concentration were considered for estimating lead intake. Results indicated highest lead content in leafy vegetables followed by pulses. Fruits showed low lead content and drinking water lead levels were always within tolerable limits. It was estimated that average daily lead intake through diet was about 114 microg/day for adults and 50 microg/day in children; tolerable limit is 250 microg/day for adults and 90 microg/day for children. The estimated lead intakes were translated into the resultant PbB concentrations for children and adults using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Monte Carlo simulation of PbB level variations for adults showed that probability of exceeding the tolerable limit of PbB (i.e.,10 microg/dL) was 0.062 for the pre-unleaded and 0.000328 for the post-unleaded gasoline period. The probability of exceeding tolerable limits in PbB level was reduced by a factor of 189 in the post-unleaded scenario. The study also suggested that in spite of the introduction of unleaded gasoline, children continue to be at a high risk (probability of exceeding 10 microg/dL = 0.39) because of a high intake of lead per unit body weight. 相似文献
155.
我国财务危机公司投资行为的财务特征分析 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
在引入一个简化的理性财务危机公司投资模型的基础上,论文分析了企业陷入财务危机后,债权人与债务人之间在期权博弈过程中,企业在投资策略的选择上会偏离正常的投资行为的财务特征。在此基础上,重点分析了我国经济转轨时期财务危机公司严重地过度投资和在债务重组过程中的盲目性、短期性和功利性及其形成的主要原因。企业的过度投资是内部人控制和银行债权弱化的具体体现,虚假的债务重组是将危机转嫁给企业债权人的真正动因。 相似文献
156.
157.
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes. 相似文献
158.
Performance measurement with classification information: an enhanced additive DEA model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper presents an improved measurement tool for evaluating performance of branches within a major Canadian bank. While there have been numerous previous studies of performance in the banking industry, particularly at the branch level, this study is different in a very significant way: specifically two kinds of data are used to develop the model. The first type of data is that related to standard transactions, available from any bank; such have formed the basis of numerous previous studies. The second type of data, obtained from the site studied, is classification information, based on branch consultant/expert judgment as to good and poor performance of branches. The purpose herein is to present a modified version of an existing benchmarking model, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and to show how this tool is applied in the banking industry. The mechanism used herein to incorporate expert knowledge within the DEA framework is to first apply a discriminant or classification tool, to quantify the functional relation that best captures the expert's mental model for performance. The outcome of this first phase is an orientation of variables to aid in the definition of inputs and outputs. The resulting orientation then defines the DEA model that makes up the second phase of the model. 相似文献
159.
西方价值判断现代模式的成因中中国文化因素之考察 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
赵敦华 《复旦学报(社会科学版)》2003,(1):24-30
17至19世纪,是西方人的价值观发生新旧交替的时期,其结果形成了价值判断的现代模式。在此过程中,中国文化被当作西方文化的参照系,它既参与了这一新的价值判断模式的形成,又成为这一模式的一个主要判断对象。这一跨文化的互动过程既比较全面地解释了西方价值判断模式转换的原因,也解释了中国文化在西方所遭遇的变化的原因。 相似文献
160.
关于社会福利制度的深层次思考 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
效率和公平是社会福利的两大准则 ,整个人类历史可以说就是一个不断追求效率和公平的历史 ,而其中针对社会弱势群体进行的收入和服务保障更是一个超社会形态的课题 ,是一个关乎人类社会福利的重要问题。针对中国的实际情况 ,本文中所讨论的社会福利制度被限定在“剩余福利模式”上。在对中外社会福利制度的起源及其理论发展进行考察的基础上 ,作者指出 :社会福利的提供应是制度化的政府职责 ,它的实施不仅能有效地保护社会弱势群体 ,还有利于全社会秩序的稳定和经济增长目标的实现 ;在中国目前财政收入相对不足的情况下 ,政府应充分利用社会资源、调动社会力量、推进立法、加紧培育行业组织和非赢利社会组织 ,以达到完善社会福利制度、有效保护社会弱势群体之目的。 相似文献