牙哈23凝析气田有效水体及驱动能量评价

牙哈23凝析气田是国内第一个采用整体循环注气部分保压开发的凝析气田，进行有效水体及驱动能量的估算对充分利用天然能量、保持合理的回注比、实现气田开发效益的最大化意义重大。     

A note on current methods of partitioning the contigency x2 statistic

Comparisons are made between the two values of the chisquare statistic in three dimensional contigency tables as defined respectively by the ‘multiplicative’ an ‘additive’ models of zero second order interaction. It is shown that in practice the two definitions frequently give comparable values for the statistics, and it is concluded that interaction measures, and paritioning of the overall association chisuare, are more useful than the considerable writing on the models' deficiencies would seem to indicate. There seems to be a slight bias in favour of the multiplicative model.     

关于我国利率衍生品市场发展的实证研究

伴随着金融体制改革的不断深化和利率市场化的持续推进，我国利率衍生品市场经历了迅速的发展。通过实证分析来探究推动利率衍生品市场发展的包括银行信贷、债券市场、利率等在内的各种驱动因素，发现我国利率衍生品市场发展中存在着显著的信贷效应、债市效应、利率效应和动量效应，其中动量效应最强，债市效应最弱。最后，提出了加快利率市场化、扩大市场参与者、丰富衍生品种类、加强市场监管等完善利率衍生品市场发展的对策建议。     

Rate of convergence for the distribution of the spearman-karber estimator

A Berry-Esseen type of bound is obtained for the error of the normal approximation to the distribution of the Spearman-Karber estimator. It is shown that this bound is of the order of the square root of the common dose mesh.     

Simulating the average run length for cusum schemes using variance reduction techniques

Some variance reduction techniques utilizing the total hazard are developed to estimate the average run lengths of the cumulative sum charts through simulation when the process follows a general probability distribution. Particularly, we propose the hazard estimator and the cycle estimator. Simulation results are shown for the exponential case and these estimators are compared with the raw simulation estimator. Applicability to multivariate CUSUM schemes is briefly discussed in the conclusion.     

Spare Reliability for Capacitated Computer Networks Under Tolerable Error Rate and Latency Considerations

Error rate and transmission time are both critical factors in a computer system. In addition to guarantee the robustness of the computer system under both tolerable error rate and latency, enhancing the system reliability by a routing scheme, named spare reliability, is also a critical task. Virtually, each branch possesses multiple possible capacities. Such a network is termed a capacitated computer network (CCN). Hence, this article develops an efficient algorithm to derive the spare reliability of a CCN, where the spare reliability is the probability that data can be sent through multiple minimal paths considering routing scheme.     

英国商业捕鱼业安全状况分析

介绍英国商业捕鱼业概况,分析英国海洋捕捞渔船和船员的安全状况。结果表明：1997—2007年间,平均渔船事故率为47.9起/1000艘,并且自2002年以来有上升趋势;机器故障占事故总数的62.8%;船长为15～24 m的渔船全损率和事故率远大于船长〈15 m的渔船;渔船船员平均死亡率为99.7人/（100 000人.年）,是农业、狩猎业、林业和渔业（不包括商业捕鱼业）的平均死亡率（9.5）的10.5倍,是所有行业（0.9）的110倍。可见,商业捕鱼业是到目前为止英国最危险的职业。     

Testing the rate ratio under inverse sampling based on gradient statistic

Inverse sampling is widely applied in studies with dichotomous outcomes, especially when the subjects arrive sequentially or the response of interest is difficult to obtain. In this paper, we investigate the rate ratio test problem under inverse sampling based on gradient statistic with the asymptotic method and parametric bootstrap technique. The gradient statistic has many advantages, for example, it is simple to calculate and competitive with Wald-type, score and likelihood ratio tests in terms of local power. Numerical studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of our gradient test and the existing tests, namely Wald-type, score and likelihood ratio tests. The simulation results suggest that the gradient test based on the parametric bootstrap method has excellent type I error control and large powers even in small sample design. Two real examples, from a heart disease study and a drug comparison study, are applied to illustrate our methods.     

涩北二号疏松砂岩气田出水规律研究

涩北二号气田是柴达木盆地的大型生物气田，岩性疏松，气层多而薄，存在边水，气水关系复杂。气田开发过程中气井出水普遍，出水量差异较大，产量递减较快，因此，认清气田出水规律是确保气田控水稳产的基础。以生产动态数据为基础，研究了气田各层组产水特征及水气比上升规律；通过气井出水水源的多因素合理识别，将气田出水井归结为4 种类型；并通过边水水侵量及水侵速度的计算，明确了气田不同层组边水水侵类型，认识了不同层组不同方向上的水侵速度不同；最后，通过地层累计含水率分布的计算，有效地确定了不同层组水侵前缘位置，为下一步气田控水、气井产量合理调整及气藏稳产奠定了基础。     

基于解释结构模型的企业汇率风险应急机制构建研究

由于中国大多数企业缺少对汇率风险的管理,加之汇率波动幅度及波动频率的不确定性增加,使暴露于汇率风险中的企业数量和风险头寸增加.因此,建立科学合理的企业汇率风险应急机制具有现实意义.文章运用解释结构模型(ISM)对构建企业汇率风险应急机制及其影响因素进行了分析研究.通过构建模型,明确了建立企业汇率风险应急机制将受5个等级的16个因素影响,其中2个因素为直接影响因素,5个因素为基础性影响因素.文章试图为企业汇率风险应急机制构建提供理论依据,为企业汇率风险应急管理实践提供有效路径.