两种目标制下的我国最优货币政策研究

文章构造了一个开放经济下的混合型AD‐AS模型,并根据我国2003～2013年的统计数据对其进行了估计,分别求出了在通货膨胀目标制和利率平滑目标制下事先承诺型的最优货币政策规则。在没有扰动的情况下,我国的宏观经济系统在这两种最优货币政策下都是渐近稳定的。通过两种目标制下最优货币政策的比较,发现在控制产出缺口方面,通货膨胀目标制更有效,在利率的操作性方面,利率平滑目标制更合理。     

LPM模型下的利率政策及其作用

本文探讨在不完全信息条件下,央行以短期流动性效益目标,利用利率政策工具在银行间拆借市场、货币市场以及资本市场上的非对称性传导表现为基础,并以此为逻辑线索线进行分析,指出利率主义的深化、利率政策内生性需求下,利率政策效应在银行间拆借市场、货币市场与资本市场中的链接,因不同的产品时间反应不一致从而使得利率政策在不同的市场产生不同的有效性、内生性变化效果,继而阐明了有限参与市场条件下利率传导的非对称性有效性效应,说明国民经济发展中利率政策调控需要考虑定向调控利率的问题.对央行的定向调控等利率政策的制定与调整提出了合理化建议.     

右删失数据风险函数直方图估计

鉴于生存分析中风险函数较生存函数更能反映生存数据内在失效机制,基于累计风险函数的Nelson-Aalen估计量,构造了右删失数据风险函数的新直方图估计量,并对该估计量的偏差、方差、积分均方误差等统计性质进行了论证,对该估计量的使用注意事项进行了说明,通过数值模拟进一步说明了新估计量的合理性。     

Stochastic comparisons of sample spacings in single- and multiple-outlier exponential models

This article studies some ordering results for the sample spacings arising from the single- and multiple-outlier exponential models. In the single-outlier exponential models, it is shown that the weak majorization order between the two hazard rate vectors implies the hazard rate order as well as the dispersive order between the corresponding sample spacings. We also extend this result from the single-outlier model to the multiple-outlier model for the special case of the second sample spacing. Furthermore, we obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions such that, on the one hand, the hazard rate, dispersive and usual stochastic orders, and on the other hand, the likelihood ratio and reversed hazard rate orders of the second sample spacings from two independent heterogeneous exponential random variables are equivalent.     

Variables acceptance reliability sampling plan for repairable items

Traditionally, acceptance reliability sampling plans have been developed for non-repairable items. However, the functions required for items become more and more complex and, accordingly, the items are composed of several components and tend to be repairable. In this paper, we consider variables acceptance reliability sampling plan for repairable items. We develop a variables acceptance sampling plan based on the failure and repair data observed during the testing period. It is shown that the developed sampling plan improves the reliability characteristic of the population and that the lifetimes of items before and after the reliability sampling test are stochastically ordered.     

Tests for Coefficients in High‐dimensional Additive Hazard Models

We consider hypothesis testing problems for low‐dimensional coefficients in a high dimensional additive hazard model. A variance reduced partial profiling estimator (VRPPE) is proposed and its asymptotic normality is established, which enables us to test the significance of each single coefficient when the data dimension is much larger than the sample size. Based on the p‐values obtained from the proposed test statistics, we then apply a multiple testing procedure to identify significant coefficients and show that the false discovery rate can be controlled at the desired level. The proposed method is also extended to testing a low‐dimensional sub‐vector of coefficients. The finite sample performance of the proposed testing procedure is evaluated by simulation studies. We also apply it to two real data sets, with one focusing on testing low‐dimensional coefficients and the other focusing on identifying significant coefficients through the proposed multiple testing procedure.     

Efficient Estimation of the Partly Linear Additive Hazards Model with Current Status Data

This paper focuses on efficient estimation, optimal rates of convergence and effective algorithms in the partly linear additive hazards regression model with current status data. We use polynomial splines to estimate both cumulative baseline hazard function with monotonicity constraint and nonparametric regression functions with no such constraint. We propose a simultaneous sieve maximum likelihood estimation for regression parameters and nuisance parameters and show that the resultant estimator of regression parameter vector is asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound. In addition, we show that rates of convergence for the estimators of nonparametric functions are optimal. We implement the proposed estimation through a backfitting algorithm on generalized linear models. We conduct simulation studies to examine the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimation method and present an analysis of renal function recovery data for illustration.     

六种荞麦过氧化物酶同工酶研究初报

用聚丙烯酰胺凝胶柱状电泳测定滑源苦荞、蒙８７、大黑三棱、８３—２３０、辽源一７３和美国甜荞六种荞麦的过氧化物酶同工酶，结果表明：其酶谱带依次为五、五、三、三、三、二条，平均相对迁移率分别为０．３１０、０．２８９、０．２９７、０．２７６、０．２８８和０．３８０．据此．可得出：美国甜荞与前五种荞麦的地理起源和亲缘关系较远，而前五种亲缘关系较近，但又确有遗传差异．在抗病能力上．８３—２３０＞辽源—７３＞蒙—８７＞大黑三棱＞滑源苦荞＞美国甜荞．在抗寒能力上，滑源苦荞和蒙—８７最耐寒，大黑三棱、８３—２３０和辽源—７３的耐寒性稍弱，而美国甜荞的耐寒力最差．     

A class of tests of proportional hazards assumption for left-truncated and right-censored data

In this paper, we proposed a class of tests of proportional hazards assumption for left-truncated and right-censored data based on a pair of estimators of the hazard ratio constant. Using counting process and martingale theory, the asymptotically normal distribution of the test statistic is derived and a family of consistent estimators of variance are also provided. Extensive simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed test statistics under finite sample situations. Two real data sets are analyzed to illustrate our method.     

Additive Transformation Models for Clustered Doubly Censored Data

In this article, we propose estimating procedures for additive semiparametric transformation models with clustered doubly-censored data. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed estimators. We apply the proposed methods to the dataset from the well-known Diabetic Retinopathy Study.