论科学发展观与畜牧业以质增效

畜牧产业作为国民经济体系的重要构成部分,作为农业和农村经济中的支柱产业,要想实现以质增效,必须树立科学发展观。在对科学发展观为畜牧业以质增效带来机遇进行深入分析的基础上,从产业规划、结构调整,提高畜牧产品的质量和建立畜产品安全监控体系,实现牧区草地资源开发利用与可持续发展相结合等方面提出落实科学发展观,推进畜牧业以质增效的对策方略。     

Bayesian modeling of dynamic extreme values: extension of generalized extreme value distributions with latent stochastic processes

This paper develops Bayesian inference of extreme value models with a flexible time-dependent latent structure. The generalized extreme value distribution is utilized to incorporate state variables that follow an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with Gumbel-distributed innovations. The time-dependent extreme value distribution is combined with heavy-tailed error terms. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed using a state-space representation with a finite mixture of normal distributions to approximate the Gumbel distribution. The methodology is illustrated by simulated data and two different sets of real data. Monthly minima of daily returns of stock price index, and monthly maxima of hourly electricity demand are fit to the proposed model and used for model comparison. Estimation results show the usefulness of the proposed model and methodology, and provide evidence that the latent autoregressive process and heavy-tailed errors play an important role to describe the monthly series of minimum stock returns and maximum electricity demand.     

上市公司资产重组引发的业绩评价指标的思考

本文主要对上市公司资产重组引发的上市公司业绩评价指标的优缺点进行了分析 ,进而提出了新的评价指标投资资本报酬率、经济增加值 ,以图能够对上市公司业绩进行更准确的评价     

Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns

A stochastic volatility model may be estimated by a quasi-maximum likelihood procedure by transforming to a linear state-space form. The method is extended to handle correlation between the two disturbances in the model and applied to data on stock returns     

大众传播语境下流行歌词诗意回归与精英文化的出路

当代流行歌词与唐宋词有着一脉相承的“血缘关系”，作为大众文化的代表，流行歌词向唐宋词诗意化的回归，不但是对歌词自身品味的提升，也是大众文化向高雅趋同的有力手段，对大众传播语境下精英文化的振兴、当代文化的发展意义重大。     

农民工经济贡献自我评价差异的影响因素研究

随着改革开放的深入，农民工对流入地的经济贡献越来越大。但就农民工个体而言，他们对经济贡献的自我评价受到各种因素的影响而存在差异。本文从农民工的流出/流入地、人力资本、经济回报、社会接纳和社会认同等五个方面入手，通过建立Logistic回归模型，探讨并分析影响农民工对流入地经济贡献自我评价的诸多因素。结果表明，除了流出/流入地对经济贡献自我评价并不显著，其余四项对经济贡献自我评价作用显著。     

Alternative beta estimation for the market model using partially adaptive techniques

The leptokurtosls of many security market return distributions can contaminate ordinary least squares estimates of the β coefficient of the market model. Partially adaptive estimation techniques accommodate the possibility of fat tailed distributions. this methodology limits the influence of extremely large residuals and yields estimates which are both statistically and practically different from ordinary least squares.     

Efficiency and stock performance of EU banks: Is there a relationship?

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the stock performance of EU listed banks is related to their efficiency. Our sample consists of 171 banks operating in 15 EU markets over the period 2002–2006. First, we use stochastic frontier analysis to estimate the cost and profit efficiency of banks, while controlling for environmental factors. Then, we investigate if changes in profit and cost efficiency are reflected in changes in stock prices. Our results indicate that the change in profit efficiency has a positive and significant impact on stocks prices; however, there is no relationship between changes in cost efficiency and stock returns.     

Family-Like Group in a Correctional Institution

This paper examines a particular residential group within a correctional treatment institution. The examination focuses on the family-likeness of this group. The concept of family-like as it exists in the literature is described and the features of family-likeness in the group under discussion are outlined. A comparison is made to other residential groups as well as to other groups described as family-like.     

应计质量的风险定价研究——来自中国A股市场的证据

以2002年～2008年575家A股上市公司为样本,分别运用固定效应和时间序列OLS回归方法,从股价(年报后)和股票回报率两个角度考察A股上市公司应计盈余质量是否会影响投资者对股票的定价。通过将每股盈余分离成每股可控盈余、非可控盈余和经营现金流后发现,年报之后的股票价格与可控盈余之间呈高度正相关。研究结果表明,投资者不能有效识别上市公司财务报表的真实性,盈余管理在一定程度上影响了投资者对股票的客观定价。进一步,通过构建盈余质量的替代变量AQfactor,将其纳入CAPM模型和三因子模型中进行资产定价检验。结果显示,AQfactor虽然与股票回报率正相关,但并不具有统计意义上的显著性,即在中国A股市场上,没有证据表明应计盈余质量可以作为一个信息风险定价因子来解释股票回报;在相对较长而稳定的期间里,超常的报告盈余引起的应计盈余波动并不能给投资者带来稳定回报率。