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81.
Tahani Coolen-Maturi 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2017,46(19):9476-9493
Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning, and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate among three-ordered classes or groups. In this article, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for three-group ROC analysis for ordinal outcomes is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modeling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. This article also includes results on the volumes under the ROC surfaces and consideration of the choice of decision thresholds for the diagnosis. Two examples are provided to illustrate our method. 相似文献
82.
In this article, we propose a weighted simulated integrated conditional moment (WSICM) test of the validity of parametric specifications of conditional distribution models for stationary time series data, by combining the weighted integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of Bierens (1984) for time series regression models with the simulated ICM test of Bierens and Wang (2012) of conditional distribution models for cross-section data. To the best of our knowledge, no other consistent test for parametric conditional time series distributions has been proposed yet in the literature, despite consistency claims made by some authors. 相似文献
83.
ABSTRACTThis paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison with the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014), and they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of USA output growth. 相似文献
84.
周圣 《西南交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2012,13(3):122-126
从有效投资组合的角度构建持有期下含有无风险资产的均值—条件风险价值模型,用Lagrange乘子法对该模型求解,可得到:一定条件下,新模型的有效前沿与均值—方差模型有效前沿是一致的;且当借贷利率不同时,新模型的有效前沿可以根据组合预期收益率与借贷利率的不同关系,由线段、双曲线以及射线三个部分组合而成。 相似文献
85.
86.
M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nikos Tzavidis Nicola Salvati Monica Pratesi Ray Chambers 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2008,17(3):393-411
Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately,
cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation,
using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models
are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random
effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on
strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow
for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models
was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction
of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do
not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate
for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality.
The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation
of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random
effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small
area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the
2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of
poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption
expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are
in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of
inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology
and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile
estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information
and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function. 相似文献
87.
We consider the problem of estimating the maximum posterior probability (MAP) state sequence for a finite state and finite emission alphabet hidden Markov model (HMM) in the Bayesian setup, where both emission and transition matrices have Dirichlet priors. We study a training set consisting of thousands of protein alignment pairs. The training data is used to set the prior hyperparameters for Bayesian MAP segmentation. Since the Viterbi algorithm is not applicable any more, there is no simple procedure to find the MAP path, and several iterative algorithms are considered and compared. The main goal of the paper is to test the Bayesian setup against the frequentist one, where the parameters of HMM are estimated using the training data. 相似文献
88.
李利君 《河南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2009,27(6):91-94
附条件逮捕发端于司法实践,对协调办案需要和人权保障意义重大。但各地运行状况并不统一,学界也存在着一定的理论争议。对此可以从文本认同、理论认同和感情认同三个角度加以探讨,既指出理论质疑,也阐明其存在的合理性和改善的必要性。 相似文献
89.
认知语境的构建 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
王江汉 《安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,11(1):86-88
本文在关联理论的框架下讨论发话人怎袢通过语言和非语言手段制约受话人的认知语境以及受话人如何在认知环境中选择并延伸认知语境. 相似文献
90.
蒯振华 《安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,11(3):111-114
本文从语用学角度出发探讨了语境与交际的关系.重点论述了人们在交际过程中,在交际模式的指导下如何利用语境,寻找到最佳的关联,推理出说话者的真正意图,具体分析了语境在交际中所起的重大作用. 相似文献