The Siable-Law Model of Stock Returns

This study investigates the tail shapes of empirical distributions of returns on an extensive group of common stocks. The tails of the return distributions are found to be thinner than those of infinite variance stable distributions. Therefore, although homogeneity is evident in general, economic and statistical inferences drawn from stable-law parameters estimated from samples of stock returns may be misleading. This is in spite of the apparent overall similarity (in shape) between empirical and stable distributions.     

Asymmetric Multivariate Stochastic Volatility

This paper proposes and analyses two types of asymmetric multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models, namely, (i) the SV with leverage (SV-L) model, which is based on the negative correlation between the innovations in the returns and volatility, and (ii) the SV with leverage and size effect (SV-LSE) model, which is based on the signs and magnitude of the returns. The paper derives the state space form for the logarithm of the squared returns, which follow the multivariate SV-L model, and develops estimation methods for the multivariate SV-L and SV-LSE models based on the Monte Carlo likelihood (MCL) approach. The empirical results show that the multivariate SV-LSE model fits the bivariate and trivariate returns of the S&P 500, the Nikkei 225, and the Hang Seng indexes with respect to AIC and BIC more accurately than does the multivariate SV-L model. Moreover, the empirical results suggest that the univariate models should be rejected in favor of their bivariate and trivariate counterparts.     

Bayes Estimation of Shift Point in Geometric Sequence

A sequence of independent lifetimes X ₁, X ₂,…, X _m , X _m+1,… X _n were observed from geometric population with parameter q ₁ but later it was found that there was a change in the system at some point of time m and it is reflected in the sequence after X _m by change in parameter q ₂. The Bayes estimates of m, q ₁, q ₂, reliability R ₁ (t) and R ₂ (t) at time t are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. A simulation study is carried out.     

The Two-Piece Normal-Laplace Distribution

This article considers the two-piece normal-Laplace (TPNL) distribution, a split skew distribution consisting of a normal part, and a Laplace part. The distribution is indexed by three parameters, representing location, scale, and shape. As illustrated with several examples, the TPNL family of distributions provides a useful alternative to other families of asymmetric distributions on the real line. However, because the likelihood function is not well behaved, standard theory of maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation does not apply to the TPNL family. In particular, the likelihood function can have multiple local maxima. We provide a procedure for computing ML estimators, and prove consistency and asymptotic normality of ML estimators, using non standard methods.     

On an Extended Version of Skew Generalized Normal Distribution and Some of its Properties

Abstract

A generalization of Chauvenet's test (see Bol'shev, L. N. 1969 Bol'shev, L. N. 1969. On tests for rejecting outlying observations. Trudy In-ta prikladnoi Mat. Tblissi Gosudart. univ., 2: 159–177. (In Russian) [Google Scholar]. On tests for rejecting outlying observations. Trudy In-ta prikladnoi Mat. Tblissi Gosudart. univ. 2:159–177. (In Russian); Voinov, V. G., Nikulin, M. N. 1996 Voinov, V. G. and Nikulin, M. N. 1996. Unbaised Estimators and Their Applications Vol. 2, Kluwer Academic Publishers.  [Google Scholar]. Unbaised Estimators and Their Applications. Vol. 2. Kluwer Academic Publishers.) suitable to applied the problem of detecting r outliers in an univariate data set is proposed. In the exponential case, the Chauvenet's test can be used. Various modifications of this test were considered by Bol'shev, Ibrakimov and Khalfina (Ibrakimov, I. A., Khalfina 1978 Ibrakimov, I. A. and Khalfina. 1978. Some asymptotic results concerning the Chauvenet test. Ter. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 23(3): 593–597.  [Google Scholar]. Some asymptotic results concerning the Chauvenet test. Ter. Veroyatnost. i Primenen. 23(3):593–597.), Greenwood and Nikulin (Greenwood, Nikulin, P. E. 1996 Greenwood and Nikulin, P. E. 1996. A Guide to Chi-Squared Testing New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc..  [Google Scholar]. A Guide to Chi-Squared Testing. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.) depending on the choice of the estimation method used: MLE or MVUE. As procedures for testing one outlier in exponential model have been investigated by a number of authors including Chikkagoudar and Kunchur (Chikkagoudar, M. S., Kunchur, S. H. 1983 Chikkagoudar, M. S. and Kunchur, S. H. 1983. Distribution of test statistics for multiple outliers in exponential samples. Comm. Stat. Theory. and Meth., 12: 2127–2142. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Distribution of test statistics for multiple outliers in exponential samples. Comm. Stat. Theory. and Meth. 12:2127–2142.), Lewis and Fieller (Lewis, T., Fiellerm N. R. J. 1979 Lewis, T. and Fiellerm, N. R. J. 1979. A recursive algorithm for null distribution for outliers: I. Gamma samples. Technometrics, 21: 371–376. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. A recursive algorithm for null distribution for outliers : I. Gamma samples. Technometrics 21:371–376.), Likes (Likes, J. 1966 Likes, J. 1966. Distribution of Dixon's statistics in the case of an exponential population. Metrika, 11: 46–54. (91, 96, 136, 198–200, 204, 209, 210)[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]. Distribution of Dixon's statistics in the case of an exponential population. Metrika 11:46–54. (91, 96, 136, 198–200, 204, 209, 210).) and Kabe (Kabe, D. G. 1970 Kabe, D. G. 1970. Testing outliers from an exponential population. Metrika, 15: 15–18. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Testing outliers from an exponential population. Metrika 15:15–18.); only two types of statistics for testing multiple outliers exist. First is Dixon's while the second is based on the ratio of the sum of the observations suspected to be outliers to the sum of all observations of the sample. In fact, most of these authors have considered a general case of gamma model and the results for exponential model are given a special case. The object of the present communication is to focus on alternative models, namely slippage alternatives (see Barnett, Vic., Toby Lewis 1978 Barnett, Vic. and Toby, Lewis. 1978. Outlier in Statistical Data New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc..  [Google Scholar]. Outlier in Statistical Data. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.) in exponential samples. We propose a statistic different from the well known Dixon's statistic D_r to test for multiple outliers. Distribution of the test based on this new statistic under slippage alternatives is obtained and hence the tables of critical values are given, for various n (size of the sample) and r (the number of outliers). The power of the new test is also calculated, it is compared to the power of the Dixon's statistic (Chikkagoudar, M. S., Kunchur, S. H. 1983 Chikkagoudar, M. S. and Kunchur, S. H. 1983. Distribution of test statistics for multiple outliers in exponential samples. Comm. Stat. Theory. and Meth., 12: 2127–2142. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Distribution of test statistics for multiple outliers in exponential samples. Comm. Stat. Theory. and Meth. 12:2127–2142.). Notice that the new statistic based test power is greater the Dixon's statistic based test one.     

Quantile Regression via the EM Algorithm

The three-parameter asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) has received increasing attention in the field of quantile regression due to an important feature between its location and asymmetric parameters. On the basis of the representation of the ALD as a normal-variance–mean mixture with an exponential mixing distribution, this article develops EM and generalized EM algorithms, respectively, for computing regression quantiles of linear and nonlinear regression models. It is interesting to show that the proposed EM algorithm and the MM (Majorization–Minimization) algorithm for quantile regressions are really the same in terms of computation, since the updating formula of them are the same. This provides a good example that connects the EM and MM algorithms. Simulation studies show that the EM algorithm can successfully recover the true parameters in quantile regressions.     

货币政策、时变预期与融资成本

文章在货币当局与市场主体存在不对称信息条件下,探讨了货币当局实施未预期的宽松性政策时,市场主体预期时变性在这一政策行动影响信贷市场融资成本过程中的机制。首先,我们采用外部融资溢价度量融资成本,提出在经济周期的不同阶段,未预期的宽松性政策通过作用于市场主体预期的时变性特征,进而影响外部融资溢价的非线性效应假说,然后,建立包含货币政策变量的马尔科夫区制转换信贷利差模型和市场主体预期形成模型展开检验。研究显示,未预期的宽松性政策会暴露出经济不良的私有信息,从而使市场主体形成悲观的经济前景预期。而且,在经济衰退阶段,政策行动促使市场主体预期恶化的影响效应较小,会较大幅度地降低外部融资溢价;在经济扩张阶段,政策行动促使市场主体预期恶化的影响效应将会越大,进而较小幅度地降低外部融资溢价,这也就意味着,市场主体预期形成方式的时变性,影响到未预期宽松性政策降低信贷市场融资成本的力度。     

Max-Linear Competing Factor Models

Models incorporating “latent” variables have been commonplace in financial, social, and behavioral sciences. Factor model, the most popular latent model, explains the continuous observed variables in a smaller set of latent variables (factors) in a matter of linear relationship. However, complex data often simultaneously display asymmetric dependence, asymptotic dependence, and positive (negative) dependence between random variables, which linearity and Gaussian distributions and many other extant distributions are not capable of modeling. This article proposes a nonlinear factor model that can model the above-mentioned variable dependence features but still possesses a simple form of factor structure. The random variables, marginally distributed as unit Fréchet distributions, are decomposed into max linear functions of underlying Fréchet idiosyncratic risks, transformed from Gaussian copula, and independent shared external Fréchet risks. By allowing the random variables to share underlying (latent) pervasive risks with random impact parameters, various dependence structures are created. This innovates a new promising technique to generate families of distributions with simple interpretations. We dive in the multivariate extreme value properties of the proposed model and investigate maximum composite likelihood methods for the impact parameters of the latent risks. The estimates are shown to be consistent. The estimation schemes are illustrated on several sets of simulated data, where comparisons of performance are addressed. We employ a bootstrap method to obtain standard errors in real data analysis. Real application to financial data reveals inherent dependencies that previous work has not disclosed and demonstrates the model’s interpretability to real data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A Bayesian conditional model for bivariate mixed ordinal and skew continuous longitudinal responses using quantile regression

In this paper, we develop a conditional model for analyzing mixed bivariate continuous and ordinal longitudinal responses. We propose a quantile regression model with random effects for analyzing continuous responses. For this purpose, an Asymmetric Laplace Distribution (ALD) is allocated for continuous response given random effects. For modeling ordinal responses, a cumulative logit model is used, via specifying a latent variable model, with considering other random effects. Therefore, the intra-association between continuous and ordinal responses is taken into account using their own exclusive random effects. But, the inter-association between two mixed responses is taken into account by adding a continuous response term in the ordinal model. We use a Bayesian approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo method for analyzing the proposed conditional model and to estimate unknown parameters, a Gibbs sampler algorithm is used. Moreover, we illustrate an application of the proposed model using a part of the British Household Panel Survey data set. The results of data analysis show that gender, age, marital status, educational level and the amount of money spent on leisure have significant effects on annual income. Also, the associated parameter is significant in using the best fitting proposed conditional model, thus it should be employed rather than analyzing separate models.     

Process Capability Assessment for Asymmetric Tolerances with Consideration of Gauge Measurement Errors

In recent years, the issue of process capability assessment in the presence of gauge measurement errors (GME) for cases with symmetric tolerances was investigated enthusiastically. However, even processes with symmetric tolerances are very common in practical situations, cases of asymmetric tolerances also occur in manufacturing industries. In this article, a novel approach, called the generalized confidence interval (GCI) approach, is applied to assess the capabilities of processes with asymmetric tolerances in the presence of the GME. To examine the performance of the proposed approach, an exhaustive simulation was conducted. The conclusion is that the proposed approach appears quite satisfactorily for assessing process performance with asymmetric tolerances in the presence of GME in terms of the coverage rate (CR) and the average value of the generalized lower confidence limits.