A comparison of ordinal logistic regression models using Classical and Bayesian approaches in an analysis of factors associated with diabetic retinopathy

Estimating the risk factors of a disease such as diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the important research problems among bio-medical and statistical practitioners as well as epidemiologists. Incidentally many studies have focused in building models with binary outcomes, that may not exploit the available information. This article has investigated the importance of retaining the ordinal nature of the response variable (e.g. severity level of a disease) while determining the risk factors associated with DR. A generalized linear model approach with appropriate link functions has been studied using both Classical and Bayesian frameworks. From the result of this study, it can be observed that the ordinal logistic regression with probit link function could be more appropriate approach in determining the risk factors of DR. The study has emphasized the ways to handle the ordinal nature of the response variable with better model fit compared to other link functions.     

Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Persistent Shocks

This paper studies the optimal level of discretion in policymaking. We consider a fiscal policy model where the government has time‐inconsistent preferences with a present bias toward public spending. The government chooses a fiscal rule to trade off its desire to commit to not overspend against its desire to have flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. We analyze the optimal fiscal rule when the shocks are persistent. Unlike under independent and identically distributed shocks, we show that the ex ante optimal rule is not sequentially optimal, as it provides dynamic incentives. The ex ante optimal rule exhibits history dependence, with high shocks leading to an erosion of future fiscal discipline compared to low shocks, which lead to the reinstatement of discipline. The implied policy distortions oscillate over time given a sequence of high shocks, and can force the government to accumulate maximal debt and become immiserated in the long run.     

论《乐记》美学理论建构的特点

<乐记>以篇目逻辑体系与范畴潜在逻辑体系的双重组合,形成完整的美学理论建构.其中较为清晰的理论逻辑梳理,范畴的内蕴凝结与潜在的意义钩连,展现了朴素辩证逻辑思维方式与感性体验思维方式在美学理论建构中的融合,对我们理解中国传统文艺美学理论建构的某些特点具有重要意义.     

运用动态优先级轮询机制的数据链仿真

提出了一种数据链的链路层协议——基于动态优先级轮询的接入方式,在OPNET网络仿真开发平台上,构建出基于动态优先级轮询机制的时分多址(TDMA)数据链协议仿真模型,描述了在OPNET仿真平台上的建模过程,给出和分析了动态优先级轮询机制下TDMA数据链性能(地面站入网注册时间、网络吞吐量、中心站和地面站的信道利用率、业务接入时延)的仿真结果。仿真结果表明采用动态优先级轮询机制,系统接入效率高,对于各站点数据上行有较好的均衡性,同时又不失灵活性。     

双／多基地雷达对抗技术

扼要论述了双／多基地雷达的基本概念、模型及其电子对抗特征，并介绍了多传感器数据融合的基本概念；重点论述了用雷达侦察和通信侦察两种传感器通过数据相关处理以实现对双／多基地雷达进行侦察识别的相关识别方法，计算机模拟结果表明此方法是可行的；最后，讨论了对双／多基地雷达的干扰方法。     

论马克思恩格斯的文艺心理学思想

文章针对当前文艺心理研究中存在的深受西方主观唯心主义和客观自然主义文艺心理学派影响的问题,从马恩原著出发深入归纳、总结马克思主义的文艺心理思想,论证马恩的文艺心理学思想是系统和丰富的,从而提出文艺心理学的研究应以马克思主义哲学、美学思想为指导。     

Bias due to Ignoring the Sample Design in Case–Control Studies

Case–control studies allow efficient estimation of the associations of covariates with a binary response in settings where the probability of a positive response is small. It is well known that covariate–response associations can be consistently estimated using a logistic model by acting as if the case–control (retrospective) data were prospective, and that this result does not hold for other binary regression models. However, in practice an investigator may be interested in fitting a non–logistic link binary regression model and this paper examines the magnitude of the bias resulting from ignoring the case–control sample design with such models. The paper presents an approximation to the magnitude of this bias in terms of the sampling rates of cases and controls, as well as simulation results that show that the bias can be substantial.     

机械设计制造及其自动化专业课程实践性环节改革

指出机械设计制造及其自动化专业人才培养模式中专业课程阶段实践性环节改革的必要性,论述具体设置方案及实施效果,为该专业的课程体系及教学内容的改革探索一条可行而有效的途径。     

广东天地会起义与太平天国起义相似性新探

广东天地会起义与太平天国起义作为同时代发生的两次反清起义，在诸多方面有着相似之处。这些相似之处不只是表现在社会背景、原因、冲突对象等方面，更主要体现在性质、领导成份及民众联系程度、内部整合机制等方面。正是诸多相似之处，使得广东天地会起义与太平天国起义有着相似的结局。     

论思想政治工作的创新

面对新形势、新任务 ,为更好的发挥我党思想政治教育工作在社会发展、人们生活中的主导地位 ,必须打破传统的教育模式 ,在继承的基础上大胆创新 ,更新观念 ,充实内容 ,改进方法 ,完善机制 ,提高思想政治工作的实效