Bootstrap forecast intervals for asymmetric volatilities via EGARCH model

Bootstrap forecast intervals are developed for volatilities having asymmetric features, which are accounted for by fitting EGARCH models. A Monte-Carlo simulation compares the proposed forecast intervals with those based on GARCH fittings which ignore asymmetry. The comparison reveals substantial advantage of addressing asymmetry through EGARCH fitting over ignoring it as the conventional GARCH forecast. The EGARCH forecast intervals have empirical coverage probabilities closer to the nominal level and/or have shorter average lengths than the GARCH forecast intervals. The finding is also supported by real dataset analysis of Dow–Jones index and financial times stock exchange (FTSE) 100 index.     

Bayesian expectile regression with asymmetric normal distribution

In this paper, we adopt the Bayesian approach to expectile regression employing a likelihood function that is based on an asymmetric normal distribution. We demonstrate that improper uniform priors for the unknown model parameters yield a proper joint posterior. Three simulated data sets were generated to evaluate the proposed method which show that Bayesian expectile regression performs well and has different characteristics comparing with Bayesian quantile regression. We also apply this approach into two real data analysis.     

专业知识教学环节改革的探索与实践

结合教学改革实践,论述了在专业知识传授过程中,不但要注重专业知识的系统性和完整性,更要注重提高学生专业方面的综合素质,并提出了在专业知识传授环节中增加综合训练周提高毕业生专业方面综合素质的改革途径。     

应用化学专业创新人才培养实践教学环节的思考与探索

以培养学生的创新精神和实践能力为主线,论述应用化学专业实践教学的重要性。对如何深化实践教学改革、提高实验、实习教学水平、提升毕业设计(论文)质量进行有益的探索。     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

An Improved Boxplot for Univariate Data

The boxplot is an effective data-visualization tool useful in diverse applications and disciplines. Although more sophisticated graphical methods exist, the boxplot remains relevant due to its simplicity, interpretability, and usefulness, even in the age of big data. This article highlights the origins and developments of the boxplot that is now widely viewed as an industry standard as well as its inherent limitations when dealing with data from skewed distributions, particularly when detecting outliers. The proposed Ratio-Skewed boxplot is shown to be practical and suitable for outlier labeling across several parametric distributions.     

A general algorithm to fit constrained DEDICOM models

The DEDICOM model is a model to analyze square tables describing asymmetric relationships among n entities. Its importance in the asymmetric multidimensional scaling literature is due to the fact that several authors showed a large class of models to be simply a constrained version of DEDICOM. A typical example is the Generalized GIPSCAL proposed by Kiers & Takane. In this paper we present a new algorithm capable to fit, in the least squares sense, any DEDICOM constrained model.     

人事信息系统的基本环节

人事信息系统的主体框架有 6个基本环节 ,即人事信息的收集、加工、贮存、传输、反馈和利用 ,每一环节都有具体的目标要求。充分发挥人事信息系统的整体功能 ,能够强化人事管理的综合效能。     

论唐太宗与大臣之间的语言信息沟通

我国历史上的君主纳谏和大臣向君主进谏 ,大体上符合现代语言信息沟通活动的基本特征。即以语言 (或书面奏疏 )作为媒介载体 ,在君臣之间传递信息 ,使得君臣增进相互了解 ,并协调行动 ,最终达到政令上下的畅通和治理国家的目标。唐太宗是我国古代一位以善于纳谏从谏而闻名于世的开明君主 ,他对语言信息沟通运用的艺术表现在 :(一 )建立全方位的语言信息沟通 ,(二 )清除语言信息沟通的障碍 ,(三 )加强语言信息沟通的制度性措施。