Confidence intervals based on the deviance statistic for the hyperparameters in state space models

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of confidence intervals, built using the deviance statistic, for the hyperparameters of state space models. The first procedure is a marginal approximation to confidence regions, based on the likelihood test, and the second one is based on the signed root deviance profile. Those methods are computationally efficient and are not affected by problems such as intervals with limits outside the parameter space, which can be the case when the focus is on the variances of the errors. The procedures are compared to the usual approaches existing in the literature, which includes the method based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator, as well as bootstrap confidence intervals. The comparison is performed via a Monte Carlo study, in order to establish empirically the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The results show that the methods based on the deviance statistic possess a better coverage rate than the asymptotic and bootstrap procedures.     

“中国特色社会主义理论体系概论”课教学实效性路径探微

“中国特色社会主义理论体系概论”课的教学实效性体现在教学的各个环节中。教学前,注重教学实效性意识的培养;教学中,注重宏观整体与纵向历史性相结合、政治理论性与具体现实性相结合、理论深度性与模式多样性相结合;教学后,注重双向评价,以达到教育教学之目的。     

基于功效系数法的城市土地利用效益评价——以武汉市为例

城市土地是城市社会和经济发展的基础。城市土地利用效益评价是理论界研究的热点之一,许多学者从不同层面进行了有益的探讨。本文运用功效系数法,建立了城市土地利用效益评价数学模型。首先,从经济、社会与生态三方面综合筛选评价指标并运用德尔菲法确定指标权重;然后,确定备评价指标的效态及其满意值与不允许值;最后,通过Excel软件计算备指标功效系数和城市土地利用效益的综合功效系数,并以武汉市为实证,进行了模型实用性与可信度的分析与评价。     

创意教学自我效能感及其对教学的影响

创意教学自我效能感是在教学效能感与创意自我效能感概念和理论的基础上提出的,是教师对自己的创造性教学能力及其影响学生学习程度的知觉和信念。它会受到教师对教学任务和自身教学能力的分析、他人评价以及自身经验和生理状态的影响,同时也会影响教师的创造性教学行为,是一个重要的个体预测变量。进一步的相关研究应关注创意教学自我效能感产生的机制、途径以及创意教学自我效能感与学生个体特征是如何相互作用并影响学生的创造力发展等问题。     

论案例教学在公共关系课程中的运用与功效

案例教学是一种科学、高效的教学方法,它能够激发学生的学习兴趣、培养创造性思维,提高实践技能.<公共关系学>是一门应用性很强的课程,在教学中正确地运用案例、准确严密地剖析案例并结合实践进行公共关系策划,能取得较好的教学效果.     

提高企业人力资源总体效能的对策

人力资源总体效能决定了企业实现其商业目标的程度。因此,研究人力资源总体效能,对于提高人力资源管理水平,进而提高组织的绩效,具有重要的意义。在深入分析影响企业人力资源总体效能的各因素的基础上,进一步就如何提高人力资源总体效能给出了具体的对策:做好人力规划、优化工作设计、完善激励机制。     

对增强高校德育实效性的思考

德育是素质教育的核心,也是高校教育的重点.明确德育概念,认清德育关注生命成长的功能,建构多层次的教育目标,把握德育内容的时代性,选择生活化的德育方法,才能增强高校德育的实效性.     

现代教育理念视阈下的德育效能探析

从理论和实践层面对德育低效问题进行了研究,认为仅仅通过从德育模式、方法和途径等方面进行努力,而试图达到德育目标的做法无异于舍本求末.对德育理念的反思和厘定,并以其价值追求贯穿于德育实践体系才是根本之道.最后提出提高德育效能的途径:人的发展是永恒主题;德育要素旨在和谐发展;德性养成重在循序渐进;道德教育贵在自我超越.     

Two-step estimation for inhomogeneous spatial point processes

Summary.  The paper is concerned with parameter estimation for inhomogeneous spatial point processes with a regression model for the intensity function and tractable second-order properties ( K -function). Regression parameters are estimated by using a Poisson likelihood score estimating function and in the second step minimum contrast estimation is applied for the residual clustering parameters. Asymptotic normality of parameter estimates is established under certain mixing conditions and we exemplify how the results may be applied in ecological studies of rainforests.     

Another look at Huber's estimator: A new minimax estimator in regression with stochastically bounded noise

Huber's estimator has had a long lasting impact, particularly on robust statistics. It is well known that under certain conditions, Huber's estimator is asymptotically minimax. A moderate generalization in rederiving Huber's estimator shows that Huber's estimator is not the only choice. We develop an alternative asymptotic minimax estimator and name it regression with stochastically bounded noise (RSBN). Simulations demonstrate that RSBN is slightly better in performance, although it is unclear how to justify such an improvement theoretically. We propose two numerical solutions: an iterative numerical solution, which is extremely easy to implement and is based on the proximal point method; and a solution by applying state-of-the-art nonlinear optimization software packages, e.g., SNOPT. Contribution: the generalization of the variational approach is interesting and should be useful in deriving other asymptotic minimax estimators in other problems.