美国扩军备战的鼓吹者——伦纳德·伍德

伦纳德·伍德认为：美国必须为未来战争做好准备，实行国民经济总动员，建立公民军队、平民军事教育体系和预备役军官。他在担任总参谋长期间采取了一系列的措施：提高总参谋部的效率，改革后勤，改组国民警卫队，改革军队编制，开展“普拉茨堡运动”，颁布1916年《国防法》和《扩军法》，为美国参加第一次世界大战做好了准备。     

Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?

If a specific biological mechanism could be determined by which a carcinogen increases lung cancer risk, how might this knowledge be used to improve risk assessment? To explore this issue, we assume (perhaps incorrectly) that arsenic in cigarette smoke increases lung cancer risk by hypermethylating the promoter region of gene p16INK4a, leading to a more rapid entry of altered (initiated) cells into a clonal expansion phase. The potential impact on lung cancer of removing arsenic is then quantified using a three‐stage version of a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model. This refines the usual two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis by resolving its intermediate or “initiated” cell compartment into two subcompartments, representing experimentally observed “patch” and “field” cells. This refinement allows p16 methylation effects to be represented as speeding transitions of cells from the patch state to the clonally expanding field state. Given these assumptions, removing arsenic might greatly reduce the number of nonsmall cell lung cancer cells (NSCLCs) produced in smokers, by up to two‐thirds, depending on the fraction (between 0 and 1) of the smoking‐induced increase in the patch‐to‐field transition rate prevented if arsenic were removed. At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data.     

现代化进程中古城风貌的保护与延伸

在现代化进程中古城风貌保护与延伸的理论与对策应是社会学学者所关注的一个问题。古城应在动态中进行“城市性格”保护和延伸,在宏观上分异城市功能,在微观上注重“修旧如旧”和“点、线、面”的三位一体,城市社区的建设问题可以在保护和延伸中协调解决。     

On Asymptotic Strategy-Proofness of Classical Social Choice Rules

We show that, when the number of participating agents n tends to infinity, all classical social choice rules are asymptotically strategy-proof with the proportion of manipulable profiles being of order O (1/n).     

方罐扩口生产的关键技术

方罐扩口罐是市场的消费需求;推行薄铁皮罐是降低生产成本之必须。文章着重阐述解决方罐扩口罐生产问题的三大关键技术及应用——电阻焊自感应检测技术实现高质量焊接、凸轮控制系统精确控制的渐进式扩口技术解决扩口成型时材料拉伸不均匀问题、对封口滚轮曲线优化及热处理技术研究与创新提高方罐的封口质量。实际结果：减少了生产中的材料损耗;实现了全开盖的国产化应用;给异型空罐产业转型升级提供示范。     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

Improved model selection criteria for SETAR time series models

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the modified model selection criteria proposed by Hurvich et al. (1990. Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler information for autoregressive model selection in small samples. Biometrika 77, 709–719) for autoregressive models. Second, we provide some highlights on the better performance of this modified criteria. Third, we extend the modification introduced by these authors to model selection criteria commonly used in the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) time series models. We show the improvements of the modified criteria in their finite sample performance. In particular, for small and medium sample size the frequency of selecting the true model improves for the consistent criteria and the root mean square error (RMSE) of prediction improves for the efficient criteria. These results are illustrated via simulation with SETAR models in which we assume that the threshold and the parameters are unknown.     

胀接对管板强度的加强效应

由于胀接使列管与管板紧密连接，管壁厚度的部分或全部可以考虑在管桥 宽度中.本文通过数值计算分析了胀接对管板强度的加强效应.     

基于语义扩展的数字图书馆知识推荐系统

构建个性化知识推荐系统是数字图书馆实现个性化信息服务的有效手段,推荐服务的关键在于完整地理解用户兴趣并准确作出推荐.文章提出了一种基于语义扩展的知识推荐方法,通过分析读者文献检索、浏览的行为提取读者偏好.利用扩展激活模型扩充读者偏好档案,对文献信息资源进行匹配和分级,通过文献的级别决定推荐的次序,对推荐信息进行反馈,动态更新读者的偏好档案.     

印度高等教育规模扩充的驱动因素分析

高等教育规模扩充受多重因素的驱动。在1950—1970年的20年间，印度的高等教育经历了大规模的扩充，持续扩充背后的驱动因素有哪些？本文从不同的角度出发，分析了驱动印度高等教育规模扩充的深层因素。