新中国海洋开发政策的历史考察

新中国海洋开发政策的确立和发展是一个逐步演进的过程。改革开放前,是新中国海洋开发政策的准备时期,这一时期海洋观念和海洋政策主要侧重于海防方面;改革开放至二十世纪末,是国家海洋开发政策基本形成时期,这一时期逐步形成了统筹海洋开发和整治、资源开发和环境保护、科学技术研究和开发等较为全面的政策体系;21世纪,是国家海洋开发政策迈向强国战略的科学发展新时期,这一时期围绕贯彻落实＂实施海洋开发＂和＂发展海洋产业＂战略部署海洋开发政策,从而更加科学、健全。我国海洋开发政策的不断完善,既是国内建设和国际形势发展的内在要求,也是不断解放思想、转变传统海洋观念和发展理念的必然结果。     

Trends,Age Patterns and Differentials in Childhood Mortality in Haiti (1960–1987)

This paper examines the trends, patterns and differentials in childhood mortality in Haiti between 1960 and 1987 with data from three surveys and one census. Data comparability is maximized by a series of adjustments, and both direct and indirect techniques are applied. The results indicate that a slow decline in childhood mortality has occurred since 1960 for the country as a whole. Neonatal survival has shown impressive gains, especially in rural Haiti. Post-neonatal mortality has not, however, declined at the same rate. Mortality between the ages of one and five years has declined at about the same pace as infant mortality, maintaining consistency with model patterns of mortality change. The overall national decline in child mortality appears to have consisted of two phases. The first occurred in rural Haiti during the late 1960s and early 1970s and was due largely to a fall in neonatal mortality. The second phase of the decline was concentrated in Port-au-Prince, and seems to have affected all ages of childhood.     

Where have all the children gone? Women's reports of more childlessness at older ages than when they were younger in a large-scale continuous household survey in Britain

Levels of childlessness reported by the same cohorts of women and surveyed by the British General Household Survey increase with age by over 50 per cent between their early 40s and their late 50s for women born in the early 1940s. Yet the reported mean fertility of parous women remains constant with increasing age. Similar results hold within sub-groups such as different educational and marital status groups. Possible reasons for these findings include declining comparability of the base population over time due to differential migration, mortality, or institutionalization, changes in survey design and content, and differential non-response by childless and parous women. The evidence shows that these are not adequate explanations. The most likely reason is deliberate under-reporting of childbearing among older cohorts of women. The findings have implications for the interpretation of retrospective data in surveys and for the availability of informal care for older people.     

Multiple Marginal Independence Testing for Pick Any/C Variables

Many survey questions allow respondents to pick any number out of c possible categorical responses or “items”. These kinds of survey questions often use the terminology “choose all that apply” or “pick any”. Often of interest is determining if the marginal response distributions of each item differ among r different groups of respondents. Agresti and Liu (1998, 1999) call this a test for multiple marginal independence (MMI). If respondents are allowed to pick only 1 out of c responses, the hypothesis test may be performed using the Pearson chi-square test of independence. However, since respondents may pick more or less than 1 response, the test's assumptions that responses are made independently of each other is violated. Recently, a few MMI testing methods have been proposed. Loughin and Scherer (1998) propose using a bootstrap method based on a modified version of the Pearson chi-square test statistic. Agresti and Liu (1998, 1999) propose using marginal logit models, quasisymmetric loglinear models, and a few methods based on Pearson chi-square test statistics. Decady and Thomas (1999) propose using a Rao-Scott adjusted chi-squared test statistic. There has not been a full investigation of these MMI testing methods. The purpose here is to evaluate the proposed methods and propose a few new methods. Recommendations are given to guide the practitioner in choosing which MMI testing methods to use.     

Sampling refugee groups: The example of Syrians in Turkey

Quantitative surveys among refugees not only advance our scientific understanding of forced migration, but they also provide political and civil society actors with the information they need to take measures to improve their protection and living conditions. These actors often need to acquire such information within a short period of time. However, the methods to access and survey this group to gain valid findings are subject to scientific debates. Based on a survey among Syrian refugees in Turkey, this article demonstrates a study design that generated valid knowledge about this population within a limited amount of time and resources. As a unique feature of the article, we compare our sample with four other sources of information to scrutinize how well it resembles the target population. As we can show, although point estimations differ to some extent, the internal distributions of sample characteristics are comparable across sources confirming the success of our sampling method.