On the Monitoring of Autocorrelated Linear Profiles

Control charts are commonly used to monitor quality of a process or product characterized by a quality characteristic or a vector of quality characteristics. However, in many practical situations the quality of a process or product can be characterized by a function or profile. Here we consider a linear function and investigate the violation of common independence assumption implicitly considered in most control charting applications. We specifically consider the case when profiles are not independent from each other over time. In this article, the effect of autocorrelation between profiles is investigated using average run length (ARL) criterion. Simulation results indicate significant impact on the ARL values when autocorrelation is overlooked. In addition, three methods based on time series approach are used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation. Their performances are compared using ARL criterion.     

Identification of Periodic Moving-Average Models

Abstract

ARMA models with seasonally-varying parameters and orders, known as periodic ARMA (PARMA) models, have found wide applications in modeling of seasonal processes. This article considers the identification of orders of periodic MA (PMA) models. The identification is based on the cut-off property of the periodic autocorrelation function (PeACF). We derive an explicit expression for the asymptotic variance of the sample PeACF to be used in establishing its bands. A simulated example is also provided which agrees well with the theoretical results.     

On the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimates for the polynomial spline regression model with unknown knots and AR(1) errors

Asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients and knot points for the polynomial spline regression models with unknown knots and AR(1) errors have been derived by Chan (1989). Chan showed that under some mild conditions the maximum likelihood estimators, after suitable standardization, asymptotically follow normal distributions as n diverges to infinity. For the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimators, iterative methods must be applied. But this is not easy to implement for the model considered. In this paper, we suggested an alternative method to compute the estimates of the regression parameters and knots. It is shown that the estimates obtained by this method are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates considered by Chan.     

On a mixture autoregressive model

We generalize the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (GMTD) model introduced by Le and co-workers to the mixture autoregressive (MAR) model for the modelling of non-linear time series. The models consist of a mixture of K stationary or non-stationary AR components. The advantages of the MAR model over the GMTD model include a more full range of shape changing predictive distributions and the ability to handle cycles and conditional heteroscedasticity in the time series. The stationarity conditions and autocorrelation function are derived. The estimation is easily done via a simple EM algorithm and the model selection problem is addressed. The shape changing feature of the conditional distributions makes these models capable of modelling time series with multimodal conditional distributions and with heteroscedasticity. The models are applied to two real data sets and compared with other competing models. The MAR models appear to capture features of the data better than other competing models do.     

Comparison of data analysis procedures for real-time nanoparticle sampling data using classical regression and ARIMA models

Real-time monitoring is necessary for nanoparticle exposure assessment to characterize the exposure profile, but the data produced are autocorrelated. This study was conducted to compare three statistical methods used to analyze data, which constitute autocorrelated time series, and to investigate the effect of averaging time on the reduction of the autocorrelation using field data. First-order autoregressive (AR(1)) and autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are alternative methods that remove autocorrelation. The classical regression method was compared with AR(1) and ARIMA. Three data sets were used. Scanning mobility particle sizer data were used. We compared the results of regression, AR(1), and ARIMA with averaging times of 1, 5, and 10?min. AR(1) and ARIMA models had similar capacities to adjust autocorrelation of real-time data. Because of the non-stationary of real-time monitoring data, the ARIMA was more appropriate. When using the AR(1), transformation into stationary data was necessary. There was no difference with a longer averaging time. This study suggests that the ARIMA model could be used to process real-time monitoring data especially for non-stationary data, and averaging time setting is flexible depending on the data interval required to capture the effects of processes for occupational and environmental nano measurements.     

Residual Responses to Change Patterns of Autocorrelated Processes

This article studies the residual behaviour of various stationary processes in the presence of change patterns. Three types of change patterns are considered, Additive Outliers, Innovative Outliers and Level Shift. The knowledge of the residual behaviour is important for monitoring production processes. A new method of residual process control is proposed, the patterns chart. In addition to the advantage of detecting change patterns, it distinguishes their nature. The patterns chart's performance is compared to the performance of the special causes control (SCC) chart based on average run length. The results show that the proposed method performs better than a SCC chart. A real case study illustrates that the patterns chart has all the desirable properties of a SCC chart and it overcomes the negative ones.     

Robust designs for experiments with blocks

ABSTRACT

For experiments running in field plots or over time, the observations are often correlated due to spatial or serial correlation, which leads to correlated errors in a linear model analyzing the treatment means. Without knowing the exact correlation matrix of the errors, it is not possible to compute the generalized least-squares estimator for the treatment means and use it to construct optimal designs for the experiments. In this paper, we propose to use neighborhoods to model the covariance matrix of the errors, and apply a modified generalized least-squares estimator to construct robust designs for experiments with blocks. A minimax design criterion is investigated, and a simulated annealing algorithm is developed to find robust designs. We have derived several theoretical results, and representative examples are presented.     

Towards a theory of point optimal testing

This paper puts the case for the inclusion of point optimal tests in the econometrician's repertoire. They do not suit every testing situation but the current evidence, which is reviewed here, indicates that they can have extremely useful Small-sample power properties. As well as being most powerful at a nominated point in the alternative hypothesis parameter space, they may also have optimum power at a number of other points and indeed be uniformly most powerful when such a test exists. Point optimal tests can also be used to trace out the maxemum attainable power envelope for a given testing problem, thus providing a benchmark against which test procedures can be evaluated. In some cases, point optimal tests can be constructed from tests of simple null hypothesis against a simple alternative. For a wide range of models of interst to econometricians, this paper shows how one can check whether a point optimal test can be constructed in this way. When it cannot, one may wish to consider approximately point optimal tests. As an illustration, the approach is applied to the non-nested problem of testing for AR(1) distrubances against MA(1) distrubances in the linear regression model.     

The time series concept of invertibility

Box and JENKINS introduced the concept of invertibility for reasons which are argued to be largely irrelevant. However, the concept has some value since the boundary between invertible and ”strongly“ non-invertible moving average paramter sets, gives rise to bounds on the autocorrelations. As well as being of academic interest, these bounds may be useful for identifying processes.