资源税改革：以煤炭为例的资源经济学分析

以煤炭为例,利用修正的E1 Serafy使用者成本法估计煤炭资源耗减成本可以证明,中国煤炭资源的开发利用存在使用者成本,并随着煤炭产量的大幅增加而迅速提高,需要通过征收从价资源税来反映煤炭资源的真实成本。计算结果还表明,1992--2009年间,中国基于使用者成本的从价煤炭资源税理论税率在2％-14％之间波动。进一步通过动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型分析从价煤炭资源税对宏观经济的影响,可以发现,对煤炭资源征收5％-12％的从价资源税,宏观经济成本将在可承受范围之内,而且能够反映煤炭作为稀缺性资源的耗减成本。因此,中国的资源税改革具有可持续发展的意义。     

论法律效果与社会效果的“有机统一”

法律效果与社会效果作为司法裁判的二元目标,是法律的规则性、规则的理性与限度之张力在司法实践中的具体表现.在中国司法语境中,社会主义法治是“两个效果有机统一”政策的构成性前提,也是其实践的规定性组成部分.遮蔽于道德理由的规则之治,是一种具有明显优势的社会治理模式,但也有其限度和局限,这是“两个效果有机统一”的践行性前提.相应地,落实“法律效果”就是最大化规则之治的优点与功能,以维系秩序与保障权利;关切“社会效果”则是基于规则适用结果与最优道德判断的不一致性,要求适度返回法律背后的道德理由,平衡法律适用的社会效用.法律效果在法治国家司法中处于优先地位,对社会效果的考量,须设定各种制度与方法约束.唯此才能使司法裁判做到“规范上封闭和认知上开放”,真正实现“两个效果有机统一”.     

On the significance of social control: Treatment‐entry pressures,self‐choice and alcohol and drug dependence criteria one year after treatment

Storbjörk J. On the significance of social control: treatment‐entry pressures, self‐choice and alcohol and drug dependence criteria one year after treatment This article explores how self‐choice and treatment‐entry pressures are associated with one‐year treatment outcome (dependence symptoms, 0–6, 12 months) among alcohol and drug misusers, respectively. Informal pressures (from family and friends), formal pressures (related to work, healthcare, social services, social allowances, child custody) and legal pressures (related to the police, criminal justice system, compulsory treatment) were analysed. A sample (N= 1,210) representative of the addiction treatment system of Stockholm County was interviewed when starting a new treatment episode and after one year. Regression analyses indicated that self‐choice and pressures are associated with outcome among alcohol misusers but not among drug misusers when controlling for background factors and severity. Self‐choice (without pressures) correlated with a good outcome (a lower number of dependence criteria). Pressures were generally associated with poorer outcome. Alcohol misusers who had experienced threats regarding child custody did better in comparison with those not experiencing such pressure. The difference in results by drug type and implications were discussed.     

出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口的影响分析

我国是钢铁生产大国、贸易大国,同时面临着高投入、高排放等诸多问题。“十一五”期间,国家采取了调整出口退税率等措施来限制“两高一资”产品的出口。回顾我国钢铁行业1994年以来出口退税率的调整变化,运用计量经济学模型,采用月度数据分析2004年-2010年出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁行业出口的影响。研究显示,出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口量存在微小的长期正向影响,短期作用效果不显著;国外需求因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用最突出,无论在长期或短期影响都非常显著;汇率、价格因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用其次,只存在长期均衡关系。     

自贸协定对中国和“一带一路”沿线国家福利影响的实证研究

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,越来越多的国家参与到“一带一路”的合作与建设中来,而自由贸易协定可以促进国家间的贸易合作,消除或减少贸易壁垒,促进国家社会居民福利。为了定量化测算自由贸易协定给中国以及其他国家带来的贸易和福利影响,采用基于李嘉图比较优势、Eaton Kortum国际贸易模型和部门间投入产出表的Caliendo Parro模型,构建了包括43国家40个部门的国际贸易模型,利用模型中的福利计算公式,计算了中国在2005～2011年期间签订的自贸协定的福利和进出口效应,模拟计算了关税为零后给中国和“一带一路”沿线国家带来的福利变化和进出口贸易效应。测算表明:关税为零后促进了“一带一路”沿线国家和欧盟国家的福利,“一带一路”沿线29国平均增加0.86%、欧盟17国增加达0.72%;促进了中国进出口的增长,如中国对韩国出口增长幅度达128.00%、中国从斯洛伐克的进口增长达140.20%。测算还表明,对于已经和中国签订并执行自贸协定的国家,关税进一步降为零后它们的福利增加和进出口影响不大,如秘鲁福利增加0.06%、智利福利增加0.03%;进出口方面,中国从新西兰的进口将增加24.00%,中国对秘鲁的出口将增加53.8%。测算结果表明:中国应该坚持多边主义和国际贸易自由化,与更多的“一带一路”沿线国家签订自贸协定,利用与“一带一路”沿线国家的自贸区应对中美贸易摩擦,并探索对现代新型自由贸易协定的规则制定和监管措施。     

Design and analysis considerations for comparing dynamic treatment regimens with binary outcomes from sequential multiple assignment randomized trials

In behavioral, educational and medical practice, interventions are often personalized over time using strategies that are based on individual behaviors and characteristics and changes in symptoms, severity, or adherence that are a result of one's treatment. Such strategies that more closely mimic real practice, are known as dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs). A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is a multi-stage trial design that can be used to construct effective DTRs. This article reviews a simple to use ‘weighted and replicated’ estimation technique for comparing DTRs embedded in a SMART design using logistic regression for a binary, end-of-study outcome variable. Based on a Wald test that compares two embedded DTRs of interest from the ‘weighted and replicated’ regression model, a sample size calculation is presented with a corresponding user-friendly applet to aid in the process of designing a SMART. The analytic models and sample size calculations are presented for three of the more commonly used two-stage SMART designs. Simulations for the sample size calculation show the empirical power reaches expected levels. A data analysis example with corresponding code is presented in the appendix using data from a SMART developing an effective DTR in autism.     

Double sampling |S| control chart with variable sample size and variable sampling interval

This study presents a control chart for monitoring shifts in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normally distributed process. This chart combines the double sampling, variable sample size and variable sampling interval features, and is called the DSVSSI |S| chart. A Markov chain approach is developed to design the DSVSSI |S| chart, by minimizing the average time to signal (ATS), for a specified shift size in the covariance matrix. The DSVSSI |S| chart has a better ATS performance compared to other existing charts. An example is given to illustrate the operation of the DSVSSI |S| chart.     

Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect with density ratio model

In this study we propose a unified semiparametric approach to estimate various indices of treatment effect under the density ratio model, which connects two density functions by an exponential tilt. For each index, we construct two estimating functions based on the model and apply the generalized method of moments to improve the estimates. The estimating functions are allowed to be non smooth with respect to parameters and hence make the proposed method more flexible. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and illustrate the application with several simulations and two real data sets.     

A Leadership Training Group for at Risk Fifth & Seventh Graders: Results from A Brief Strength-Based Group Program

ABSTRACT

An increasing number of youth are exhibiting social, emotional, and behavioral problems that hinder their ability to function at grade level. Subsequently, school mental health services have not been able to address the need for services particularly among students who are minority and poor. A mixed methodology study was conducted to determine the treatment outcomes from a brief strength-based leadership training group for primarily students who are African American and poor. Pre–post scores on three scales and focus group data revealed significant positive changes in regard to internal areas of functioning and social skills, anger management skills, and school attitude. Gender and age significantly impacted outcomes.