对张学良联共抗日思想形成的几点思考

指出中华民族的千古功臣张学良将军,是中国共产党人的一位真正朋友。论述了张学良联共抗日的思想基础、形成及其实现联共抗日的途径。同时,对张学良联共抗日思想与行动进行了评析,从而为学术界进一步研究和评价张学良将军与中国共产党人的关系提供了借鉴。     

新硼试剂3—甲氧基—甲亚胺H与硼显色反应的研究

对新硼试剂3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H与硼显色反应体系研究结果表明,在pH=5的醋酸-醋酸铵缓冲体系中,硼与3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H在常温下形成2:3的黄绿色配合物,配合物稳定24h以上,λmax=410nm,ε550=6.82×104cm·mol-1·L-1,硼含量在0～2.5μg/25mL范围符合比耳定律.     

On the asymptotic normality of the L1- and L2-errors in histogram density estimation

The L₁ and L₂-errors of the histogram estimate of a density f from a sample X₁,X₂,…,Xn using a cubic partition are shown to be asymptotically normal without any unnecessary conditions imposed on the density f. The asymptotic variances are shown to depend on f only through the corresponding norm of f. From this follows the asymptotic null distribution of a goodness-of-fit test based on the total variation distance, introduced by Györfi and van der Meulen (1991). This note uses the idea of partial inversion for obtaining characteristic functions of conditional distributions, which goes back at least to Bartlett (1938).     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

张学良体育情源探究

分析了张学良终身热爱体育、积极倡导体育、竭力发展体育的深深体育情结之渊源;提出"以健全之身体,求精妙之学问"是张学良体育情源之基点,"健身强国,抵御外侵"是张学良体育情源之核心,"倡导体育,造成复兴民族之生力"是张学良体育情源之根本三大基本观点;得出张学良决不是单纯地关注体育,而是站在国家的高度、民族的高度、救亡的高度,从战略的意义上来认识体育、倡导体育、发展体育,是要通过发展体育来为振兴中华、复兴民族奠定物质基础和精神基础之结论。     

B股与H股及红筹股之间的溢出效应与信息流动

运用向量GARCH-M模型检验了B股与H股及红筹股之间的溢出效应与信息流动.实证结果表明:红筹股对沪深市B股、H股对沪市B股的收益和波动溢出效应均显著存在,而反向的溢出效应均不显著,表明信息是从红筹股向沪深市B股、从H股向沪市B股单向流动的;深市B股与H股之间相互的收益溢出效应均存在,而波动溢出效应均不存在,信息在H股和深市B股之间的流动情况不明显;在信息流动过程中,红筹股始终处于信息领先地位.     

Empirical Bayes estimation in finite population sampling under functional measurement error models

The paper considers simultaneous estimation of finite population means for several strata. A model-based approach is taken, where the covariates in the super-population model are subject to measurement errors. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators of the strata means are developed and an asymptotic expression for the MSE of the EB estimators is provided. It is shown that the proposed EB estimators are “first order optimal” in the sense of Robbins [1956. An empirical Bayes approach to statistics. In: Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol. 1, University of California Press, Berkeley, pp. 157–164], while the regular EB estimators which ignore the measurement error are not.     

The calibration of P-values,posterior Bayes factors and the AIC from the posterior distribution of the likelihood

The posterior distribution of the likelihood is used to interpret the evidential meaning of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and Akaike's information criterion when comparing point null hypotheses with composite alternatives. Asymptotic arguments lead to simple re-calibrations of these criteria in terms of posterior tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio. (Prior) Bayes factors cannot be calibrated in this way as they are model-specific.     

Evaluating a private foundation's health program

Public policy decisions in health are increasingly difficult and expensive. Although there will never be enough information available, private foundations can help to bridge the most important gaps in knowledge. Larger foundations may also wish to respond to those who doubt the value of foundation activities. This article reviews the experiences over the past eight years of The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation in employing evaluation and related social research procedures in the planning and implementation of a major philanthropic effort to improve the health and medical care of Americans. Discussed are the still evolving Foundation evaluation framework, the unanticipated problems in undertaking specific evaluations, and the substantive findings of some of the studies.     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.