The calibration of P-values,posterior Bayes factors and the AIC from the posterior distribution of the likelihood

The posterior distribution of the likelihood is used to interpret the evidential meaning of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and Akaike's information criterion when comparing point null hypotheses with composite alternatives. Asymptotic arguments lead to simple re-calibrations of these criteria in terms of posterior tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio. (Prior) Bayes factors cannot be calibrated in this way as they are model-specific.     

An ISO 9001:2000-based framework for realizing quality in small businesses

The purpose of ISO 9001:2000 Quality Management System (QMS) is to provide businesses with a model to grow systematically while assuring the quality of their products. The validity of ISO 9001:2000 QMS stems, largely, from the fact that the best minds worldwide have contributed to its development and maintenance, and the fact that many companies have reported real business gains because of its implementation. Unfortunately, many small businesses fail to survive due to the absence or lack of adequate system for managing quality. An obvious recommendation would be to implement ISO 9001:2000 QMS. Nevertheless, small businesses often cite lack of resources and time as the main reasons for not implementing ISO 9001:2000 QMS.     

基于两阶段优化算法的神经网络预测模型

采用基于两阶段优化算法(multi-stage optimization approach,MSOA)的GA人工神经网络,将训练集分为两部分,在前一训练集训练后获得的网络基础上使用后一训练集进行进一步的训练获得更为优化的网络结构.针对复杂系统建模输入节点难以确定的问题,提出将其与自组织数据挖掘算法相结合,利用GMDH算法获得神经网络的初始化节点,使用训练好的神经网络模型进行预测.将由此建立的预测模型应用于粮食价格的预测,并进一步探讨了MSOA算法的收敛性问题.结果表明基于GMDH和MSOA的神经网络组合预测模型能较大提高神经网络的全局收敛能力和收敛速度,提高预测精度.     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

A Security Model and Legal Guarantee for Chinese Maritime Shipping: As Exemplified in the Response to Piracy along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important decision for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Maritime security has a significant place in this process. In recent years, there have been frequent violent terrorist incidents at sea, including piracy, armed hijackings and terrorist attacks, posing a dire threat to both international and Chinese maritime transport interests and seriously challenging the fulfillment of the maritime part of the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Five direct measures can be taken to protect ocean shipping from violence at sea. One example is the defensive measures taken against the Somali pirates. The employment of armed guards from professional security companies on board ship is an effective model for guaranteeing maritime security; it not only meets the standards of international law, but is also legally permitted in many developed countries and regions, and is thus strategically significant for overall Chinese maritime security. In the Chinese context, this model carries its own legal risks. We should embrace a new approach to national security law, strengthen legal guarantees and make concerted efforts to provide warship (military aircraft) escorts to jointly build an optimum model of Chinese maritime security in order to ensure the realization of core Chinese maritime interests.     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

A Narrative Approach to Pregnancy‐related Discrimination and Leader–follower Relationships

This study sheds light on women's perceptions of pregnancy‐related discrimination committed by the discriminated woman's immediate leader. The purpose is to show how women describe this perception during pregnancy and after their return to working life after maternity leave. Further, the study explores the ways in which the quality of the leader–follower relationship is revealed during the narration process. The research draws on five individual stories, collected in two rounds of interviews. Representations of several kinds of discriminatory practices can be found in the narratives and reveal that even being a partner in a good‐quality leader–follower relationship does not necessarily protect a woman from pregnancy‐related discrimination. However, women involved in a high‐quality leader–follower relationship described their perceptions in a more positive manner than those in a low‐quality relationship. The contribution of the article to the literature is twofold: firstly, the results challenge the traditional view that high‐quality leader–member exchange relationships lead to positive outcomes. Secondly, examining the different ways in which people describe their perceptions of discrimination deepens our understanding of the equality problems that working women face.     

Bootstrapping estimators for the seemingly unrelated regressions model

In this paper we consider the possibility of using the bootstrap to estimate the finite sample variability of feasible generalized least squares and improved estimators applied to the seemingly unrelated regressions model. The improved estimators we employ include members of the Stein-rule family and a hierarchical Bayes estimator proposed by Blattberg and George (1991). Simulation experiments are carried out using several SUR examples as well as a very large example based on the price-promotion model, and data, from marketing research.     

Marginal likelihood estimation from the Metropolis output: tips and tricks for efficient implementation in generalized linear latent variable models

The marginal likelihood can be notoriously difficult to compute, and particularly so in high-dimensional problems. Chib and Jeliazkov employed the local reversibility of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to construct an estimator in models where full conditional densities are not available analytically. The estimator is free of distributional assumptions and is directly linked to the simulation algorithm. However, it generally requires a sequence of reduced Markov chain Monte Carlo runs which makes the method computationally demanding especially in cases when the parameter space is large. In this article, we study the implementation of this estimator on latent variable models which embed independence of the responses to the observables given the latent variables (conditional or local independence). This property is employed in the construction of a multi-block Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm that allows to compute the estimator in a single run, regardless of the dimensionality of the parameter space. The counterpart one-block algorithm is also considered here, by pointing out the difference between the two approaches. The paper closes with the illustration of the estimator in simulated and real-life data sets.     

Bayes shrinkage estimator for consistency assessment of treatment effects in multi-regional clinical trials

The primary objective of a multi-regional clinical trial is to investigate the overall efficacy of the drug across regions and evaluate the possibility of applying the overall trial result to some specific region. A challenge arises when there is not enough regional sample size. We focus on the problem of evaluating applicability of a drug to a specific region of interest under the criterion of preserving a certain proportion of the overall treatment effect in the region. We propose a variant of James-Stein shrinkage estimator in the empirical Bayes context for the region-specific treatment effect. The estimator has the features of accommodating the between-region variation and finiteness correction of bias. We also propose a truncated version of the proposed shrinkage estimator to further protect risk in the presence of extreme value of regional treatment effect. Based on the proposed estimator, we provide the consistency assessment criterion and sample size calculation for the region of interest. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with some existing methods. A hypothetical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method.