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101.
Quality Measurement Plan (QMP) as developed by Hoadley (1981) is a statistical method for analyzing discrete quality audit data which consist of the expected number of defects given the standard quality. The QMP is based on an empirical Bayes (EB) model of the audit sampling process. Despite its wide publicity, Hoadley's method has often been described as heuristic. In this paper we offer an hierarchical Bayes (HB) alternative to Hoadley's EB model, and overcome much of the criticism against this model. Gibbs sampling is used to implement the HB model proposed in this paper. Also, the convergence of the Gibbs sampler is monitored via the algorithm of Gelman and Rubin (1992). 相似文献
102.
This paper considers estimation of the parameter of a Poisson distribution using Varian's (1975) asymmetric LINEX loss function L (δ) = b{exp(aδ) - aδ - 1}, where δ is the estimation error and b > 0, a 0. It is shown that for a < 0, the sample mean X¯ is admissible whereas for a > 0, X¯ is dominated by c*X¯, where c*= (n/a)log(1+a/n). Practical implications of this result are indicated. More general results, concerning the admissibility of estimators of the form cX¯+ d are also presented. 相似文献
103.
This paper gives an exposition of the use of the posterior likelihood ratio for testing point null hypotheses in a fully Bayesian framework. Connections between the frequentist P-value and the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio are used to interpret and calibrate P-values in a Bayesian context, and examples are given to show the use of simple posterior simulation methods to provide Bayesian tests of common hypotheses. 相似文献
104.
105.
Inference in model-based cluster analysis 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Bensmail Halima Celeux Gilles Raftery Adrian E. Robert Christian P. 《Statistics and Computing》1997,7(1):1-10
A new approach to cluster analysis has been introduced based on parsimonious geometric modelling of the within-group covariance matrices in a mixture of multivariate normal distributions, using hierarchical agglomeration and iterative relocation. It works well and is widely used via the MCLUST software available in S-PLUS and StatLib. However, it has several limitations: there is no assessment of the uncertainty about the classification, the partition can be suboptimal, parameter estimates are biased, the shape matrix has to be specified by the user, prior group probabilities are assumed to be equal, the method for choosing the number of groups is based on a crude approximation, and no formal way of choosing between the various possible models is included. Here, we propose a new approach which overcomes all these difficulties. It consists of exact Bayesian inference via Gibbs sampling, and the calculation of Bayes factors (for choosing the model and the number of groups) from the output using the Laplace–Metropolis estimator. It works well in several real and simulated examples. 相似文献
106.
James H. Albert 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1990,18(4):347-363
One method of testing for independence in a two-way table is based on the Bayes factor, the ratio of the likelihoods under the independence hypothesis H and the alternative hypothesis H. The main difficulty in this approach is the specification of prior distributions on the composite hypotheses H and H. A new Bayesian test statistic is constructed by using a prior distribution on H that is concentrated about the “independence surface” H. Approximations are proposed which simplify the computation of the test statistic. The values of the Bayes factor are compared with values of statistics proposed by Gunel and Dickey (1974), Good and Crook (1987), and Spiegelhalter and Smith (1982) for a number of two-way tables. This investigation suggests a strong relationship between the new statistic and the p-value. 相似文献
107.
Hiroyuki Kashima 《Statistical Papers》2005,46(4):523-540
This paper shows that a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators can be effectively applied to portfolio selection under
the Bayesian approach. Specifically, it is shown that the portfolio selection problem can result in a statistical decision
problem in some situations. Following that, we present a method for solving a problem involved in portfolio selection under
the Bayesian approach. 相似文献
108.
A. L. Rukhin 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1996,24(4):503-515
ABSTRACT The limiting behaviour of Bayes procedures in the asymptotic setting of the change-point estimation problem is studied. It is shown that the distribution of the difference between the Bayes estimator and the parameter converges to the distribution of a fairly complicated random variable. A class of linear statistics is introduced, and the form of the Bayes estimator within this class is deduced. The asymptotic properties of this linear estimator are investigated in two different settings for the prior distribution. 相似文献
109.
石板坡长江大桥位于重庆主城区,结构采用连续梁与连续刚构混合连续体系,主跨跨度在同类型桥梁中居世界之首。结合该桥设计及施工特点,采用按龄期调整的有效模量法结合有限元步进法对石板坡长江大桥混凝土收缩与徐变效应进行了计算分析。计算结果表明预应力筋的张拉、混凝土的收缩徐变等对桥梁的竖向变形与轴向变形都有较大影响,混凝土的收缩徐变以及预应力损失使该桥混凝土梁的应力减小,钢梁的应力增加。 相似文献
110.
We consider the problem of estimating R=P(Y<X) when X and Y are independent Burr-type X random variables. We assume that the sample from each population contains one spurious observation. Bayes estimates are derived
for exchangeable and identifiable cases. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to compare the bias and the expected loss of
R. 相似文献