利用WALL构建双主教学模式深化大学英语教学改革

作为大学英语改革的主要内容，WALL（网络辅助语言学习）为大学英语改革带来了勃勃生机。本文分析了借助WALL构建大学英语双主模式，即教师主导，学生为认知主体的教学模式的实践意义。并根据相关理论分析了新型模式下教师和学生各自的作用和角色，对如何构建双主模式深化大学英语教学改革提出了一些设想。     

开发区类企业的企业化博弈演进分析

基于我国开发区发展瓶颈现象和一个动态博弈模型，指出开发区类企业所具有的特殊的企业形态．该类企业在开发区初创阶段，以完成政府的效用为其义务．政府在开发区发展的各个阶段，其效用函数是不同的．当政府的期望效用基本完成之后，就应当逐渐退出其行政控制．由于政府的政绩诉求和权威惯性，其行政控制的退出往往比较迟缓．通过开发区类企业与政府的利益博弈，开发区类企业逐步完成其纯企业化的过程．这种博弈引发的交易成本可能使得开发区类企业的纯企业化过程时间过长，从而导致整个过程的非效率性．     

试析高职高专学校近年来女生人数大幅度增加的现象

近年来高职高专学校女生人数大幅度增加这是一个不争的事实,其原因有主客观方面的因素。在这种情况下,学校原有的设施、专业和课程都难以适应,必须做出较大的调整和改进。     

烟台市水资源承载力变化的驱动力研究

阐述了水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素,根据烟台市各县区的统计资料,分析了烟台市自上个世纪80年代以来水资源承载力变化的总体趋势和驱动因子。结果表明:人口、社会固定资产投资和GDP是影响烟台市水资源承载力变化的主要驱动因素。通过多元线性回归模型,预测出了2005和2015年的水资源量,并进一步预测了该市的需水量和缺水量。     

A modification of Honoré's triple-link model in the synoptic problem

Summary.  In New Testament studies, the synoptic problem is concerned with the relationships between the gospels of Matthew, Mark and Luke. In an earlier paper a careful specification in probabilistic terms was set up of Honoré's triple-link model. In the present paper, a modification of Honoré's model is proposed. As previously, counts of the numbers of verbal agreements between the gospels are examined to investigate which of the possible triple-link models appears to give the best fit to the data, but now using the modified version of the model and additional sets of data.     

The evaluation of DNA evidence in pedigrees requiring population inference

Summary. The evaluation of nuclear DNA evidence for identification purposes is performed here taking account of the uncertainty about population parameters. Graphical models are used to detail the hypotheses being debated in a trial with the aim of obtaining a directed acyclic graph. Graphs also clarify the set of evidence that contributes to population inferences and they also describe the conditional independence structure of DNA evidence. Numerical illustrations are provided by re-examining three case-studies taken from the literature. Our calculations of the weight of evidence differ from those given by the authors of case-studies in that they reveal more conservative values.     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

文化需求与信息资源管理的转型

由于人文环境的巨大转变及互联网文化无可匹敌的影响,21世纪的都市文化需求尤其是阅读需求,发生了革命性的变化.都市文化与人本角色的这种互动,对于社会科学信息资源的合理配置和深度开发利用,具有决定性的影响,并直接造成了信息资源管理模式的转型.重点讨论都市文化需求对信息资源合理配置的影响,以及由此产生的信息资源管理模式的转范.     

Goodness‐of‐fit methods for matched case‐control studies

The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study.     

关于移动自组网自安全证书管理模型

对目前建立移动自组网信任模型的各种主流方案进行了分类和评述,重点阐述了自安全证书管理模型各种方案的优缺点,并指出了今后的研究方向.