Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series

Summary.  Many long instrumental climate records are available and might provide useful information in climate research. These series are usually affected by artificial shifts, due to changes in the conditions of measurement and various kinds of spurious data. A comparison with surrounding weather-stations by means of a suitable two-factor model allows us to check the reliability of the series. An adapted penalized log-likelihood procedure is used to detect an unknown number of breaks and outliers. An example concerning temperature series from France confirms that a systematic comparison of the series together is valuable and allows us to correct the data even when no reliable series can be taken as a reference.     

RLC串并联电路的等效互换问题探讨

通过对RLC串并联电路的分析 ,推导出串并联电路等效互换后计算电路参数的统一表达式 ,并对两个元件的串并联电路等效互换进行了讨论。     

A Bayesian Analysis for Accelerated Lifetime Tests Under an Exponential Power Law Model with Threshold Stress

In this paper, we present a Bayesian methodology for modelling accelerated lifetime tests under a stress response relationship with a threshold stress. Both Laplace and MCMC methods are considered. The methodology is described in detail for the case when an exponential distribution is assumed to express the behaviour of lifetimes, and a power law model with a threshold stress is assumed as the stress response relationship. We assume vague but proper priors for the parameters of interest. The methodology is illustrated by a accelerated failure test on an electrical insulation film.     

知识的价值决定——一种基于理论的探讨

劳动价值理论是经济学的基本理论。经济学价值论的使命是说明商品交换价值的决定和运动规律。新经济时代正在到来,人类生产方式也正在发生广泛而深刻的变化,价值决定理论也将随着现实经济的发展而发展。在知识经济时代,商品同样有一个客观的交换基础——劳动时间,但所有商品的价值已不完全由社会必要劳动时间确定,特别是知识产品的价值量是由个别劳动时间确定的。     

串联冰蓄冷系统设计中的泵能耗分析

介绍了串联冰蓄冷系统设计中泵能耗的3种节能方法：串联泵，变频泵和制冷机旁通，通过对某工程实例的模拟计算，对比分析了这3种方式的节能效果，提出了有效的节能方式。     

新型蓄光性长余辉荧光陶瓷的研制

研究了基础釉的成分、蓄光粉的加入量、釉层厚度和烧成温度制度等因素对蓄光陶瓷发光性能的影响以及各种制品最佳工艺技术路线的确定.     

甲骨文时间词研究

本文首先阐述了独立研究时间词的意义,然后确立了判定甲骨文时间词的标准,对各家的观点进行了一番梳理,最后得出甲骨文时间词共有109个。     

刑法溯及力原则立法上的缺失——兼论中间时法的生存之理

<中华人民共和国刑法>对溯及力问题作了从旧兼从轻的原则性规定,这是我国刑法向科学化、民主化方向发展的重要表现,然而刑法在其动态运行中又产生了中间时法的问题.本文通过对中间时法的产生及其机理的分析,并结合中间时法在我国实践中的作用,探讨了刑法对中间时法效力亟待完善的问题.     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.