城市人口密度、国内市场规模与就业增长

我国经济“高增长、低就业”现象的原因在于我国贸易成本过高，国内市场规模较少。解决我国就业问题的关键在于减少行政干预，顺应市场要求，促进人口在空间上的适度集中，提高人口密度，提高消费效率，扩大市场规模。应进一步完善城乡一体的户籍制度，完善整合城乡劳动力市场，提高要素流动能力等。     

西部人口与可持续发展

可持续发展要求有良好的人口环境。人口是西部可持续发展的首要问题。在西部发展中 ,制定积极的人口政策 ,控制人口、提高人口素质 ,为西部可持续发展创造良好的人口环境     

西夏开国人口考论

本文在认真研读相关文献的基础上 ,对西夏开国人口作了较为深入细致的考察和论述 ,认为由于史料采信等原因 ,以往研究与历史事实多有出入 ,存在不少问题。文章进而指出 ,特定的历史与地理条件决定了西夏自建国伊始即是一个“土地有限 ,人民有数”的地方性民族割据政权 ,其开国兵力不过 30余万 ,人口总数则仅及百万     

人口较少民族文化艺术遗产的新开发现象

我国 2 2个人口在 10万以下的少数民族主要生活在西部地区。近年来 ,他们在对待文化艺术遗产方面出现了一些新的特征 :歌手们更加关注自己民族的歌曲 ;地方政府在城镇和旅游建设中强调突出民族特色 ;农牧民组织民族服装模特队等。在此把这种发展变化称为“新开发”现象。     

社会工作视野下的城市少数民族流动人口问题

城市少数民族流动人口问题正逐渐成为社会关注的一大热点,文章主要对城市少数民族流动人口的现状、特点,对城市发挥的积极功能和城市少数民族流动人口问题的具体表现作一概述,并从社会工作这一新的视角分析了城市少数民族流动人口问题的成因,在此基础上就社会工作如何介入此问题提出一些建议.     

浅析中国土族人口分布格局及其社会发展

人口分布格局,既是人在空间分布上呈现出来的地理状态,又是许多附着于分布环境上的社会人文变量的外在表现,因此对其进行研究具有探索自然和认识社会的双重意义。本文就中国土族人口的分布格局进行探讨,从历史和现实两方面分析了形成这种分布的原因,并在此基础上探讨了与人口分布格局密切相关的人口城市化、人口流动、人口素质提高、区域经济发展等社会热点问题,以期为政府政策的制定提供可靠的依据。     

Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists

We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods.     

Choosing summary statistics by least angle regression for approximate Bayesian computation

Bayesian statistical inference relies on the posterior distribution. Depending on the model, the posterior can be more or less difficult to derive. In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in complex settings where the likelihood is analytically intractable. In such situations, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides an attractive way of carrying out Bayesian inference. For obtaining reliable posterior estimates however, it is important to keep the approximation errors small in ABC. The choice of an appropriate set of summary statistics plays a crucial role in this effort. Here, we report the development of a new algorithm that is based on least angle regression for choosing summary statistics. In two population genetic examples, the performance of the new algorithm is better than a previously proposed approach that uses partial least squares.     

福建省“十一五”期间人口变化与人力资源供给分析

人口预测和人力资源供给分析是为了适应社会经济发展的客观需要而提出的,它们未来的发展状况,对于一个地区的社会经济的发展影响深远。在对福建省"十五"期间人口与人力资源状况分析的基础上,对福建省"十一五"期间人口与人力资源状况进行初步预测,旨在为福建省制定未来的社会经济发展战略提供人口统计上的数据依据。     

Quasi-binomial zero-inflated regression model suitable for variables with bounded support

In recent years, a variety of regression models, including zero-inflated and hurdle versions, have been proposed to explain the case of a dependent variable with respect to exogenous covariates. Apart from the classical Poisson, negative binomial and generalised Poisson distributions, many proposals have appeared in the statistical literature, perhaps in response to the new possibilities offered by advanced software that now enables researchers to implement numerous special functions in a relatively simple way. However, we believe that a significant research gap remains, since very little attention has been paid to the quasi-binomial distribution, which was first proposed over fifty years ago. We believe this distribution might constitute a valid alternative to existing regression models, in situations in which the variable has bounded support. Therefore, in this paper we present a zero-inflated regression model based on the quasi-binomial distribution, taking into account the moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and perform a score test to compare the zero-inflated quasi-binomial distribution with the zero-inflated binomial distribution, and the zero-inflated model with the homogeneous model (the model in which covariates are not considered). This analysis is illustrated with two data sets that are well known in the statistical literature and which contain a large number of zeros.