我国城市合作金融发展模式的选择

在发达国家的现代市场经济体系中,合作金融的存在是一种值得重视的金融现象。结合合作金融的通行 做法,运用对比分析方法,对我国城市合作金融的重塑提出建议,其目的在于探索我国城市合作金融的新模式。我 国应按国际准则大力发展城市合作金融,这既是对完善金融体系的重要补充,也是构建和谐社会的重要内容。     

青海省实施跨越式发展的战略选择分析

当前,青海省传统的渐进式经济发展模式既不能适应新形势发展的需要,也不能充分发挥青海省现有的各项优势,这就要求进行经济发展战略的创新,即充分发挥青海省的后发优势,实施跨越式发展战略,变渐进式经济发展模式为跳跃式经济发展模式。     

我国沿海港口城市临港工业发展分析

介绍了国外临港工业发展经验,分析了我国沿海港口城市临港工业发展的条件,结合我国沿海港口城市实际情况,指出了我国沿海港口城市发展临港工业的产业选择,对我国沿海港口城市临港工业发展提出了几点建议。     

Strategies for inference robustness in focused modelling

Advances in computation mean that it is now possible to fit a wide range of complex models to data, but there remains the problem of selecting a model on which to base reported inferences. Following an early suggestion of Box & Tiao, it seems reasonable to seek 'inference robustness' in reported models, so that alternative assumptions that are reasonably well supported would not lead to substantially different conclusions. We propose a four-stage modelling strategy in which we iteratively assess and elaborate an initial model, measure the support for each of the resulting family of models, assess the influence of adopting alternative models on the conclusions of primary interest, and identify whether an approximate model can be reported. The influence-support plot is then introduced as a tool to aid model comparison. The strategy is semi-formal, in that it could be embedded in a decision-theoretic framework but requires substantive input for any specific application. The one restriction of the strategy is that the quantity of interest, or 'focus', must retain its interpretation across all candidate models. It is, therefore, applicable to analyses whose goal is prediction, or where a set of common model parameters are of interest and candidate models make alternative distributional assumptions. The ideas are illustrated by two examples. Technical issues include the calibration of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between marginal distributions, and the use of alternative measures of support for the range of models fitted.     

CALCULATING THE TRUE COST OF PRIVATE SCHOOL EDUCATION: BASED ON A SURVEY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL FEES

The cost of a child's education should not be a mystery to consumers, yet little has been published about the true costs, and it is no simple task for parents to calculate. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the research literature that exists in relation to informing parents and educationalists alike as to the true cost of private school education. The term cost is used in the economic sense as encompassing not only the price paid for the product (school fees) but also the opportunity cost to the family in terms of what they forego in order to finance private schooling. Identifying opportunity cost is a useful means of assessing the impact of factors, other than financial, that are influential in determining whether or not private education is purchased. From a survey of South Australian private schools, we have been able to provide a detailed account of the price variations between the fees charged, as well as identifying a variety of additional ancillary charges. Based on the survey figures, we have projected the amount of money that needs to be taken out of the family budget in order to pay for a child's private schooling. At the time the survey was conducted the cost of private school education across three strata, on average, ranged from $13,400 to $42,246. We calculated that incremental family pretax incomes of between $20,303 and $64,009 would be required to fund this education. The amounts represent an opportunity cost to a family whereby money could be put to alternative uses such as home renovation, an overseas holiday, or a buffer against unexpected life events. We conclude that the outlay is substantial for many families and that greater transparency of all costs is needed for families to make informed financial plans to accommodate the overall cost of education for their children.     

教育公平视野下的现阶段义务教育择校探究

在现阶段义务教育择校的存在有一定的合理性和不可避免性,在具体操作中它也造成了一些负面影响。有必要提出合理的意见与建议,规范现阶段义务教育择校,使其良性发展,加强薄弱学校改造,并最终实现教育公平。     

A Bayesian Approach to Selecting Covariates for Prediction

We consider the problem of selecting a regression model from a large class of possible models in the case where no true model is believed to exist. In practice few statisticians, or scientists who employ statistical methods, believe that a "true" model exists, but nonetheless they seek to select a model as a proxy from which they want to predict. Unlike much of the recent work in this area we address this problem explicitly. We develop Bayesian predictive model selection techniques when proper conjugate priors are used and obtain an easily computed expression for the model selection criterion. We also derive expressions for updating the value of the statistic when a predictor is dropped from the model and apply this approach to a large well-known data set.     

视听资料与“最佳证据规则”

视听资料是诉讼中的一类重要的证据,由于其形象直观性,对于证明案件事实具有重要的意义。在运用的过程中,视听资料的证据能力和证明力的认定要遵循一定的原则。对其原件的使用以及非原件的采纳应该引起重视。     

我国城市园林绿化中存在的问题及对策

城市园林绿化是改善城市生态环境、提高城市知名度的重要手段。随着生活质量的提高,人们对园林绿化的要求也在不断提高,而目前的城市园林绿化在适应人们要求的情况下,在配植上也出现了一些布局不合理、绿地结构趋向单一、树种搭配不当、特色树种、乡土树种少等问题,针对这些问题,提出了园林绿化的基本原则及解决问题的关键措施。     

基于AHP法的主导产业选择研究--以娄底市为例

适时地选择和培育符合经济发展阶段要求的主导产业,对一个地区的发展具有重要的战略意义。采用层次分析法(AHP法)进行工业主导产业选择可以取得比较好的效果。从评价指标的选择、调查表格的设计及统计整理等方面对采用AHP法进行主导产业的选择进行了探讨,并以娄底市为例进行了论证。