Bayesian inference and prediction analysis of the power law process based on a natural conjugate prior

Under a natural conjugate prior with four hyperparameters, the importance sampling (IS) technique is applied to the Bayesian analysis of the power law process (PLP). Samples of the parameters of the PLP are obtained from IS. Based on these samples, not only the posterior analysis of parameters and some parameter functions in the PLP are performed conveniently, but also single-sample and two-sample prediction procedures are constructed easily. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the posterior mean of the parameter functions in the PLP is studied with respect to the hyperparameters of the natural conjugate prior and it can guide the selections of the hyperparameters directly. Coupled this sensitivity with the relations between the prior moments and the hyperparameters in the natural conjugate prior, it is possible to give directions about the selections of the prior moments to a certain degree. After some numerical experiments illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed methods, an engineering example demonstrates its application.     

Ranked set sampling with random subsamples

A ranked sampling procedure with random subsamples is proposed to estimate the population mean. Four methods of obtaining random subsamples are described. Several estimators of the mean of the population based on random subsamples in ranked set sampling are proposed. These estimators are compared with the mean of a simple random sample for estimating the mean of symmetric and skew distributions. Extensive simulation under several subsampling distributions, sample sizes, and symmetric and skew distributions shows that the estimators of the mean based on random subsamples are more accurate than existing methods.     

On estimating parameters of a progressively censored lognormal distribution

We consider the problem of making statistical inference on unknown parameters of a lognormal distribution under the assumption that samples are progressively censored. The maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) are obtained by using the expectation-maximization algorithm. The observed and expected Fisher information matrices are provided as well. Approximate MLEs of unknown parameters are also obtained. Bayes and generalized estimates are derived under squared error loss function. We compute these estimates using Lindley's method as well as importance sampling method. Highest posterior density interval and asymptotic interval estimates are constructed for unknown parameters. A simulation study is conducted to compare proposed estimates. Further, a data set is analysed for illustrative purposes. Finally, optimal progressive censoring plans are discussed under different optimality criteria and results are presented.     

A flexible sampling scheme for variables inspection with loss consideration

This article develops a variables sampling scheme for resubmitted lots by incorporating the concept of Taguchi loss function. The probability of lot acceptance is derived based on the exact sampling distribution and two-point condition on operating characteristic curve is used to determine the plan parameters that meet both the producer's and consumer's quality and risk requirements. Moreover, the performance of the proposed variables resubmitted sampling plan is investigated and compared with the classical variables single sampling plan. The results indicate that the developed resubmitted sampling plan can provide the same protection with less inspection when the submitted lot is good enough. Tables of the plan parameters under various conditions are provided and the use of the proposed plan is also illustrated with an example.     

A control chart using an auxiliary variable and repetitive sampling for monitoring process mean

In this paper, a new control chart is proposed by using an auxiliary variable and repetitive sampling in order to enhance the performance of detecting a shift in process mean. The product-difference type estimator of the mean is plotted on the proposed control chart, which utilizes the information of an auxiliary variable correlated with the main quality variable. The proposed control chart is based on the outer and inner control limits so that repetitive sampling is allowed when the plotted statistic falls between the two limits. The average run length (ARL) of the proposed control chart is evaluated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed control chart is compared with the Riaz M control chart and the results show the outperformance of the proposed control chart in terms of the ARL.     

Identification of the important parameters in thermal building simulation models

Two parameter screening techniques, a sequential bifurcation technique and a factorial sampling method, have been applied to a building thermal model, used to predict thermal comfort performance of a building in its design stage. Combined application of both screening methods revealed a set of 12 important model parameters out of a total of 81, explaining 94% of the variability in the model output. These important parameters were identified by the factorial sampling method on the basis of 246 model evaluations, while sequential bifurcation only needed 52 evaluations. However, the factorial sampling scheme was effective in identifying of not only the important parameters, but also the directions of parameter main effects and the severity of interaction effects. This additional information showed that isolated application of the sequential bifurcation method would have been unreliable, as satisfaction of the inherent assumptions could not be guaranteed. Only on the basis of proper knowledge of the sign of the parameter main effects, adequate clustering of important parameters and transformation of the model output, all obtained from the results of the factorial sampling scheme, reliable and economic application of sequential bifurcation was possible.     

Comments on the paper “Bias-adjustment and calibration of jackknife variance estimator in the presence of non-response”

Singh and Arnab (2010) presented a bias adjustment to the jackknife variance estimator of Rao and Sitter (1995) in the presence of non-response. In their paper, they obtained a second-order approximation of the bias of the Rao-Sitter variance estimator and then proposed a bias-adjusted estimator based on this approximation. To compare their proposed variance estimator to various other variance estimators, they performed a simulation study and showed that their variance estimator is superior to the Rao-Sitter variance estimator. In fact they showed that the Rao-Sitter variance estimator suffers from severe underestimation. These results contradict those in the literature, which indicate that the Rao-Sitter variance estimator suffers from a positive bias if the sampling fractions are not negligible; see Rao and Sitter (1995), Lee et al. (1995) and Haziza and Picard (2011). Because of this contradiction, we felt that a further investigation was warranted. In this paper, we attempt to recreate the results of Singh and Arnab (2010) and, in fact, show that their second order approximation to the bias of the Rao-Sitter variance estimator is incorrect and that their simulation results are also questionable.     

Efficient Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with random censoring

This paper considers Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distribution with random censoring. The efficient Bayesian sampling plan for a general loss function is derived. This sampling plan possesses the property that it may make decisions prior to the end of the life test experiment, and its decision function is the same as the Bayes decision function which makes decisions based on data collected at the end of the life test experiment. Compared with the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004), the efficient Bayesian sampling plan has the smaller Bayes risk due to the less duration time of life test experiment. Computations of the efficient Bayes risks for the conjugate prior are given. Numerical comparisons between the proposed efficient Bayesian sampling plan and the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004) under two special decision losses, including the quadratic decision loss, are provided. Numerical results also demonstrate that the performance of the proposed efficient sampling plan is superior to that of the optimal sampling plan by Chen et al. (2004).     

Mean estimation through proportion estimation

In this work a device which changes the problem of mean estimation into that of proportion estimation is proposed. The device consists of perturbing the observations. The goal of the work is the construction of conservative confidence intervals for means. Three applications are given: (1) proportion estimation in the context of cluster random sampling, (2) differences of proportions of a multinomial population and (3) variance estimation.