Conceptual and Methodological Issues in Treatment Outcome Research

Few studies have evaluated the comparative efficacy, effectiveness and mode of action of specific treatment interventions, or developed evidence-based best-practice management guidelines for the treatment of problem gambling. While individual and multi-modal programmes demonstrate positive results, systematic well-designed randomised controlled studies incorporating follow-up blind assessments and standardised diagnostic and outcome measures are needed to establish long-term outcomes.     

The effect of compliance-improving interventions on the cognitive-behavioural treatment of pathological gambling

This exploratory study investigated the effect of interventions designed to improve compliance and reduce dropout rates during the outpatient treatment of pathological gambling at a University-based gambling treatment clinic. Forty subjects (29 males, 11 females, mean age = 37.6) meeting DSM-IV criteria (APA, 1994) for pathological gambling were randomly assigned to either a cognitive-behavioural treatment or a cognitive-behavioural treatment combined with interventions designed to improve treatment compliance. Compliance was indicated by the completion of all treatment sessions. Outcome measures were DSM-IV criteria assessed by structured clinical interview, South Oaks Gambling Screen scores, and percentage of income gambled. Logistic regression analyses identified pretreatment characteristics predicting compliance and outcome. Compliance-improving interventions significantly reduced dropout rates, resulting in superior outcomes at posttreatment compared to the cognitive behavioural treatment alone. At 9-month follow-up, there was no difference in outcome between treatments, although both produced clinically significant change. Comorbid problem drinking, drug use, and problem gambling duration predicted poor compliance. Poor outcome was predicted by comorbid problem drinking. The clinical implications of these results are discussed in light of the exploratory nature of the study and the need for future research to address compliance, outcome, and comorbidity issues.     

Families of proper generalized neighbor designs

A generalized neighbor design relaxes the equality condition on the number of times two treatments occur as neighbors in the design. In this article we have constructed a new series of generalized neighbor designs with equal block sizes, a series of neighbor designs of Rees [1967. Some designs of use in serology. Biometrics 23, 779–791] and a series of neighbor designs with two distinct block sizes. Two more new series of GN₂ designs are also constructed for even number of treatments. It has been shown that quasi neighbor designs introduced by Preece [1994. Balanced Ouchterlony neighbor designs. J. Combin. Math. Combin. Comput. 15, 197–219] are special cases of generalized neighbor designs with t=2$t=2$. All the designs given here are binary. A new definition—partially balanced circuit design is introduced which is a special case of generalized neighbor designs with binary blocks.     

On Bayesian sample size determination

Three Bayesian methods are considered for the determination of sample sizes for sampling from the Laplace distribution – the distribution of time between rare events – with a normal prior. These methods are applied to the sizing of aircraft mid-air collisions in a navigation system or large flight path deviations of aircraft in air traffic management scenarios. A computer program handles all computations and gives a good insight about the best suggested method.     

大学教师协会联盟对澳大利亚高等教育双轨制改革的影响——兼与中国高校教师工会比较

为了满足战后激增的高等教育入学需求而又不降低质量,澳大利亚建立了高等教育双轨制,即把高等教育机构分为侧重研究的大学和侧重教学的高等教育学院两种类型,但双轨制从产生到解体一直充满了大学和高等教育学院之间的争斗,澳大利亚大学教师协会联盟长期采用维护双轨制的方式来遏制高等教育学院的发展,以维护自身既得利益。虽然联盟最终无法改变道金森废除双轨制的一体化改革方向,但它确实极大影响了双轨制产生、发展以及解体的整个进程。将其与我国20世纪90年代开始高校合并时期的教师工会进行比较,以期有所启示。     

Comparison between Bayesian approach and frequentist methods for estimating relative risk in randomized controlled trials: a simulation study

Relative risks (RRs) are often considered as preferred measures of association in randomized controlled trials especially when the binary outcome of interest is common. To directly estimate RRs, log-binomial regression has been recommended. Although log-binomial regression is a special case of generalized linear models, it does not respect the natural parameter constraints, and maximum likelihood estimation is often subject to numerical instability that leads to convergence problems. Alternative methods for solving log-binomial regression convergence problems have been proposed. A Bayesian approach also was introduced, but the comparison between this method and frequentist methods has not been fully explored. We compared five frequentist and one Bayesian methods for estimating RRs under a variety of scenario. Based on our simulation study, there is not a method that can perform well based on different statistical properties, but COPY 1000 and modified log-Poisson regression can be considered in practice.     

Nonparametric Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice

We consider empirical measurement of equivalent variation (EV) and compensating variation (CV) resulting from price change of a discrete good using individual‐level data when there is unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. We show that for binary and unordered multinomial choice, the marginal distributions of EV and CV can be expressed as simple closed‐form functionals of conditional choice probabilities under essentially unrestricted preference distributions. These results hold even when the distribution and dimension of unobserved heterogeneity are neither known nor identified, and utilities are neither quasilinear nor parametrically specified. The welfare distributions take simple forms that are easy to compute in applications. In particular, average EV for a price rise equals the change in average Marshallian consumer surplus and is smaller than average CV for a normal good. These nonparametric point‐identification results fail for ordered choice if the unit price is identical for all alternatives, thereby providing a connection to Hausman–Newey's (2014) partial identification results for the limiting case of continuous choice.     

市场化与中国民众社会公平感的变迁:2005—2015

本文基于CGSS 2005和CGSS 2015研究中国民众社会公平感的变迁趋势，并从市场化的角度分析社会变迁与公平感变迁之间的关系。研究发现，2005—2015年，民众的结果公平感有所提升，但机会公平感有所下降。模型分析结果支持“参照群体论”，但与“社会结构论”并不完全一致。在控制所有变量的影响以后，地区的市场化程度能够显著提升个体的结果公平感，并削弱机会公平感。Oaxaca-Blinder分解结果进一步显示，2005—2015年，中国社会市场化程度的提高是导致民众结果公平感上升和机会公平感下降的主要影响因素。随着市场化改革的不断深入，机会公平问题应当在日后的公平感研究中得到更多关注。     

女性主义人类学对二元论的挑战--跨文化妇女地位研究

利用人类学研究资料，阐述了女性主义人类学通过对跨文化范围内妇女地位的研究在理论和方法论上取得的成果以及研究动态。