关于健全经济增长成果城乡共享机制的思考——以促进上海郊区新农村建设为例的研究

改革开放后,上海经济的发展给城市带来了活力,也提高了城乡居民的生活水平与生活质量。但数据分析也清楚地告诉我们,郊区农民在上海转入高速发展期后并未能更多地共享上海经济高速增长的成果。主要表现为城乡居民收入差距一度缩小后拉大,郊区农村基础设施建设薄弱、社会事业发展滞后、人居环境尚不完善、社会保障水平差异大等。文章就其原因作了分析,并就如何让农民更多地共享经济高速增长的成果进行了探讨。     

市场化与中国民众社会公平感的变迁:2005—2015

本文基于CGSS 2005和CGSS 2015研究中国民众社会公平感的变迁趋势，并从市场化的角度分析社会变迁与公平感变迁之间的关系。研究发现，2005—2015年，民众的结果公平感有所提升，但机会公平感有所下降。模型分析结果支持“参照群体论”，但与“社会结构论”并不完全一致。在控制所有变量的影响以后，地区的市场化程度能够显著提升个体的结果公平感，并削弱机会公平感。Oaxaca-Blinder分解结果进一步显示，2005—2015年，中国社会市场化程度的提高是导致民众结果公平感上升和机会公平感下降的主要影响因素。随着市场化改革的不断深入，机会公平问题应当在日后的公平感研究中得到更多关注。     

Regularized robust estimation in binary regression models

In this paper, we investigate robust parameter estimation and variable selection for binary regression models with grouped data. We investigate estimation procedures based on the minimum-distance approach. In particular, we employ minimum Hellinger and minimum symmetric chi-squared distances criteria and propose regularized minimum-distance estimators. These estimators appear to possess a certain degree of automatic robustness against model misspecification and/or for potential outliers. We show that the proposed non-penalized and penalized minimum-distance estimators are efficient under the model and simultaneously have excellent robustness properties. We study their asymptotic properties such as consistency, asymptotic normality and oracle properties. Using Monte Carlo studies, we examine the small-sample and robustness properties of the proposed estimators and compare them with traditional likelihood estimators. We also study two real-data applications to illustrate our methods. The numerical studies indicate the satisfactory finite-sample performance of our procedures.     

社会医疗保险对老年人健康水平的影响：基于浙江省的实证研究

本研究根据2010年浙江省城乡老年人口生活状况调查的数据认为,对于老年人的社会医疗保险问题,不仅要关注保险覆盖面的扩大,更应关注不同保险项目参保老人之间的健康平等。在揭示医疗服务使用与健康水平负向关系这一主效应的基础上,研究发现,职工医保作为moderator可以改善使用较多医疗服务老人的健康水平,新农合的作用则相反。研究希望对医疗保险的改革思路进行反思,全民医保的改革思路不仅是医疗服务可及性的提高,更应该是不同社群享有平等的医疗福利,并最终促进健康结果的平等。     

The effect of compliance-improving interventions on the cognitive-behavioural treatment of pathological gambling

This exploratory study investigated the effect of interventions designed to improve compliance and reduce dropout rates during the outpatient treatment of pathological gambling at a University-based gambling treatment clinic. Forty subjects (29 males, 11 females, mean age = 37.6) meeting DSM-IV criteria (APA, 1994) for pathological gambling were randomly assigned to either a cognitive-behavioural treatment or a cognitive-behavioural treatment combined with interventions designed to improve treatment compliance. Compliance was indicated by the completion of all treatment sessions. Outcome measures were DSM-IV criteria assessed by structured clinical interview, South Oaks Gambling Screen scores, and percentage of income gambled. Logistic regression analyses identified pretreatment characteristics predicting compliance and outcome. Compliance-improving interventions significantly reduced dropout rates, resulting in superior outcomes at posttreatment compared to the cognitive behavioural treatment alone. At 9-month follow-up, there was no difference in outcome between treatments, although both produced clinically significant change. Comorbid problem drinking, drug use, and problem gambling duration predicted poor compliance. Poor outcome was predicted by comorbid problem drinking. The clinical implications of these results are discussed in light of the exploratory nature of the study and the need for future research to address compliance, outcome, and comorbidity issues.     

How prospective trial registration can prevent selective outcome reporting and salami slicing?

BackgroundPre-registration of a clinical trial before the first participant is recruited can help to prevent selective outcome reporting and salami-slicing that can distort the evidence base for an intervention and result in people being offered care or treatment that is not effective. Rates of clinical trial registration in nursing and midwifery are low.AimTo use a hypothetical example from midwifery practice to illustrate how selective outcome reporting and salami-slicing can distort the evidence base.FindingsA trial of immersion in water during labour and birth is used to consider issues in outcome selection and how researchers may be drawn to switch primary outcomes or report different outcomes across multiple papers.DiscussionIn nursing and midwifery science, selective outcome and salami reporting are seemingly common. Prospective trial registration is intended to prevent these practices, enhancing the quality and integrity of the work.ConclusionClinical trials are a robust form of primary research evidence and directly impact clinical practice. Researchers must ensure their trials are correctly registered and editors need to reconcile submitted papers and registration entries as part of the review process.     

A comparison of two programmes for victims of child sexual abuse: a treatment outcome study

This study aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of individual therapy and combined individual and group therapy in the treatment of the psychological sequelae of child sexual abuse. The Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL), the Youth Self Report form (YSR), the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) and the Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC) were administered before treatment and 6 months later to a group of 20 young people who participated in individual therapy (IT) programmes and to a group of 18 young people who participated in programmes that involved combined individual and group therapy (IGT). For both types of programmes, statistically significant improvement occurred on the following scales: the total problems, internalizing problems, externalizing problems, withdrawn, somatic complaints, anxious/depressed, social problems, attention problems and aggressive behaviour problems CBCL scales; the total depression, interpersonal problems and anhedonia CDI scales; and the depression and anger TSCC scales. The only scale for which one therapy programme led to greater improvement than another was the CDI ineffectiveness scale. The IGT programme led to a reduction in the mean CDI ineffectiveness score, whereas a slight increase in the mean ineffectiveness score occurred in the IT group. There were no significant differences in the rates of clinically significant improvement associated with the two treatments and no major differences between cases who improved and those that did not improve over the course of therapy. From this study, it may be concluded that after 6 months, individual therapy and combined individual and group therapy were equally effective in the treatment of the psychological sequelae of child sexual abuse. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)

Adverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert-driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts steatosis for the chemicals from our external data. In addition, we demonstrate how end users can utilize the model to simulate the confidence (based on posterior probability) associated with predicting steatosis. We demonstrate how the network topology impacts predictions across the AOPBN, and how the AOPBN helps us identify the most informative key events that should be monitored for predicting steatosis. We close with a discussion of how the model can be used to predict potential effects of mixtures and how to model susceptible populations (e.g., where a mutation or stressor may change the conditional probability tables in the AOPBN). Using this approach for developing expert AOPBNs will facilitate the prediction of chemical toxicity, facilitate the identification of assay batteries, and greatly improve chemical hazard screening strategies.     

我国高校财务治理中的财权配置现状与优化

财务治理的效率关系到我国高校的办学绩效和健康发展，合理的财权配置是实现高校财务治理的基石和重要内容。随着高校收支规模的扩大和来源、支出结构的复杂化，优化财权配置对改进和提升教育产出的意义愈加重要。当前，我国高校财权配置存在相关制度规范和管理架构不完善以及共同治理乏力等问题，成因涉及历史、政策和治理等诸多方面。高校应当采取强化预算过程、推进网络治理和落实责任中心管理等改进措施。这些措施对优化高校财权配置、完善财务治理、提升资金管理效率，进而促进事权落实、改进办学质量并提高教育产出具有重要作用。     

Forensic Evaluation in Alleged Sibling Incest Against Children

Sibling incest is a serious form of intrafamilial sexual abuse with health, social, and legal relevance. A retrospective study was conducted through the analysis of forensic medical reports of the alleged sibling incest of victims under 18 years old (n = 68) from 2004 to 2011 as well as the respective judicial outcomes. Results demonstrated that sibling’s sexual abuse is associated with several circumstances that might exacerbate its severity such as vaginal, anal, and/or oral penetration. Moreover, the victim’s young age, the proximity between victim and abuser, and the fact that it is committed at the victim’s and/or abuser’s home and by using physical violence and verbal threats justify a late detection of these cases.