经济能人治村情境下普通村民政治参与边缘化——一种类差序格局的分析视角

农村经济社会的改革与发展日渐重塑着传统的村庄治理模式,经济能人治村成为乡土政治的新情境。经济能人治村在盘活农村经济、助推农村发展的同时,也在一定程度上引发了村庄政治参与的失衡。以类差序格局的分析视角介入,可发现经济能人、非治理能人、普通村民在村庄权力秩序上形成了典型的＂差序格局＂,并由此导致普通村民在村庄政治运作的选举过程、治理阶段、利益分配中日趋显出边缘化的倾向,这与现行的村民自治制度、经济能人治村模式及村庄治理主体实力差异等都有一定的关系。要确保经济能人治村情境下普通村民政治参与的有效性,需从村民自治制度优化、能人治村模式完善、治理主体素质培育等方面寻求＂破题＂思路。     

论意象与联想力、想象力之互动——以“多”、“二”、“一（0）”螺旋结构切入作考察

联想力与想象力是思维力的两大翅膀,藉以让思维力遨游于客观与主观时空,以通贯心、物,上撤其本、下撤其末,将真实世界、伦理世界与艺术世界融通为一,以呈现真、善、美的圆融境域.而意与象即相当于心与物,为人类思维活动的原动力,自然和联想力与想象力关系密切.大体说来,就在联想力与想象力的作用下,意象得以形成、表现、组织与统合;其中意象之形成、表现,关涉到偏于主观的"联想力与想象力"所形成之形象思维;意象之组织,关涉到偏于客观的"联想力与想象力"所形成之逻辑思维;而意象之统合,则关涉到合客观与主观为一的"联想力与想象力"所形成之综合思维.由此可知意象与联想力、想象力,在思维力的大力牵合下,不但三位一体,而且使它们形成"意象←→联想力、想象力"的"多"、"二"、"一(0)"螺旋结构.     

怒放的黑郁金香——评《宠儿》叙事手法的黑人女性身份

美国黑人女作家托妮.莫里森代表作《宠儿》从叙事视角和时序安排两方面着手,结合黑人文化传统和非裔黑人、黑人女性的历史现实,将形式与主题严密契合,挑战白人、男性的主体文化统治,建构出真正属于黑人种族和黑人女性身份的政治文本。     

应用油藏规模序列法预测东营凹陷剩余资源量

随着油气勘探程度的不断提高，未发现的剩余油气资源越来越少。如何准确预测高勘探程度即成熟探区的剩余油气资源，成为石油投资者和油气资源评价工作者关注的焦点。详细探讨了油藏规模序列法预测油气资源的原理、方法、操作流程及存在的问题，并运用该方法对东营凹陷剩余可探明储量以油气成藏体系为评价单元进行了预测。研究表明，东营凹陷剩余可探明储量约为17.03×10⁸t，仍具有较高的勘探潜力，并且主要集中在东营中央背斜带和东营凹陷北坡两个油气成藏体系内。实践证明，由于油藏规模序列法合理回避了油气成因机理问题，减少了资源评价工作中人为因素的影响，使资源评价结果更为客观。     

传统行政文化对决策科学化与民主化的负面影响

传统行政文化是影响到决策的深层因素,其思维模式、权威型人格、差序格局和知识阶层的依附性对决策产生了负面影响,是决策科学化与民主化的主要障碍。决策要实现科学化与民主化,除了要进行制度上的改革,更应该从基础因素入手,即促进我国行政文化的创新。     

The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study the partial least squares regression method. It turns out that it is naturally adapted to this setting via the so-called Krylov sequence. The resulting PLS estimator is shown to be consistent provided that the number of terms included is taken to be equal to the number of relevant components in the regression model. A standard PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to the well known primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data.     

A counterexample to Beder's conjectures about Hadamard matrices

In this note we provide a counterexample which resolves conjectures about Hadamard matrices made in this journal. Beder [1998. Conjectures about Hadamard matrices. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 72, 7–14] conjectured that if H$\mathit{H}$ is a maximal m×n$m\times n$ row-Hadamard matrix then m is a multiple of 4; and that if n   is a power of 2 then every row-Hadamard matrix can be extended to a Hadamard matrix. Using binary integer programming we obtain a maximal 13×32$13\times 32$ row-Hadamard matrix, which disproves both conjectures. Additionally for n being a multiple of 4 up to 64, we tabulate values of m   for which we have found a maximal row-Hadamard matrix. Based on the tabulated results we conjecture that a m×n$m\times n$ row-Hadamard matrix with m?n-7$m?n-7$ can be extended to a Hadamard matrix.     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

Approximate confidence intervals for the weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test subject to a case–control design

Case–control design to assess the accuracy of a binary diagnostic test (BDT) is very frequent in clinical practice. This design consists of applying the diagnostic test to all of the individuals in a sample of those who have the disease and in another sample of those who do not have the disease. The sensitivity of the diagnostic test is estimated from the case sample and the specificity is estimated from the control sample. Another parameter which is used to assess the performance of a BDT is the weighted kappa coefficient. The weighted kappa coefficient depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, on the disease prevalence and on the weighting index. In this article, confidence intervals are studied for the weighted kappa coefficient subject to a case–control design and a method is proposed to calculate the sample sizes to estimate this parameter. The results obtained were applied to a real example.