Comparison of methods for analyzing binary repeated measures data: A simulation-based study (comparison of methods for binary repeated measures)

In this study, some methods suggested for binary repeated measures, namely, Weighted Least Squares (WLS), Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE), and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) are compared with respect to power, type 1 error, and properties of estimates. The results indicate that with adequate sample size, no missing data, the only covariate being time effect, and a relatively limited number of time points, the WLS method performs well. The GEE approach performs well only for large sample sizes. The GLMM method is satisfactory with respect to type I error, but its estimates have poorer properties than the other methods.     

Likelihood procedure for testing changes in skew normal model with applications to stock returns

The skew normal distribution family is an attractive distribution family due to its mathematical tractability and inclusion of the normal distribution as the special case. It has wide applications in many applied fields such as finance, economics, and medical research. Such a distribution family has been studied extensively since it was introduced by Azzalini in 1985 Azzalini, A. (1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 12:171–178. [Google Scholar] for the first time. Yet, few work has been done on the study of change point problem related to this distribution family. In this article, we propose the likelihood ratio test (LRT) to detect changes in the parameters of the skew normal distribution associated with some asymptotic results of the test statistic. Simulations have been conducted under different scenarios to investigate the performance of the proposed method. Comparisons to some other existing method indicate the comparable power of the method in detecting changes in parameters of the skew normal distribution model. Applications on two real data: Brazilian and Tanzanian stock returns illustrate the detection procedure.     

Aging and ordering properties of multivariate lifetimes with Archimedean dependence structures

This paper further studies monotone aging properties of the multivariate random lifetime. We revise the sufficient condition for the negative monotone aging property in terms of the multivariate usual stochastic order in Theorem 3.3 of Rezapour et al. (2013) Rezapour, M., Alamatsaz, M.H., Pellerey, F. (2013). Multivariate aging with Archimedean dependence structures in high dimensions. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 42:2056–2070.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and derive the condition sufficient to the multivariate monotone aging properties in terms of the upper orthant order. Also we study the upper orthant order of multivariate residual lifetimes and inactivity times from populations sharing a common Archimedean survival copula and Archimedean survival copula, respectively. Two simple applications in multivariate stress-strength and frailty models are presented as well.     

MAP segmentation in Bayesian hidden Markov models: a case study

We consider the problem of estimating the maximum posterior probability (MAP) state sequence for a finite state and finite emission alphabet hidden Markov model (HMM) in the Bayesian setup, where both emission and transition matrices have Dirichlet priors. We study a training set consisting of thousands of protein alignment pairs. The training data is used to set the prior hyperparameters for Bayesian MAP segmentation. Since the Viterbi algorithm is not applicable any more, there is no simple procedure to find the MAP path, and several iterative algorithms are considered and compared. The main goal of the paper is to test the Bayesian setup against the frequentist one, where the parameters of HMM are estimated using the training data.     

What do we call post-apartheid?

In this paper, the author examines the different uses and meanings of the usual expression “post-apartheid.” It has been used extensively in the social sciences, political discourse and the media since the mid-1980s. But what does it refer to, and has it always meant the same thing over the last 20 years? To answer that question, the author reviews the different ways she has used the notion in her research into workers’ forms of thinking and political subjectivities in South Africa since 1996. She distinguishes between its use as a chronological marker, an academic concept open to various problematics and epistemological decisions and a notion used by interviewees under various acceptations. She concentrates more specifically on the sequential implications of the adverb “post” in her work and argues that there have been political sequences in what she (with others) has named “post-apartheid.” She concludes that she intends to stop using this term in order to concentrate on identifying the current political sequence in South Africa.     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

关于抛物线与相交直线围成的弓形面积初等数学解法的探讨

文章运用两种巧妙的分割和利用无究递缩等比数列求和公式等初等数学知识，求出了抛物线与相交直线围成的弓形面积计算公式。     

水稻基因图谱绘制成功对世界粮食和环境问题的意义

我国科学家率先成功绘制出水稻基因组草图 ,在提供绿色基因资源、加速全球第二次绿色革命———基因革命的前进步伐 ,解决世界粮食安全问题和环境保护方面作出了重要贡献。     

Inequality for equireplicated n-ary block designs with unequal block sizes

It is shown that certain inequalities known for binary, equireplicated, equiblock-sized block designs remain valid for equireplicated n-ary block designs with unequal block sizes. The approach used here is based on the spectral expansion of the C-matrix of the block design. The main theorems include some useful and combinatorially interesting results.     

非连续型Volterra积分方程最小和最大解

本文研究了带有不连续项的 Volterra积分方程的最小和最大解 ,并证明了参考文献 [1]中的主要结果的条件可被较弱条件代替