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121.
The Edgeworth expansion is well known as a means for obtaining approximate tail probabilities from information concerning the moments of the distribution. Recent saddlepoint and asymptotic methods lead to several alternative approximations. These alternatives are developed and compared by means of average relative error. 相似文献
122.
Alan D. Hutson 《Journal of applied statistics》2006,33(7):679-690
In this note we provide a simple continuity and tail-corrected approach to the standard exact test for a single binomial proportion commonly used in practice. We redefine the p-value for the two-sided alternative by noting the skewed distribution of the sample proportion under the null hypothesis. We illustrate that for both one and two-sided alternatives the coverage probabilities of the new methodology approaches more closely the desired type I error α and thus recommend these modifications to the applied statistician for consideration. 相似文献
123.
Edi Karni 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2003,26(1):17-38
This paper explores two axiomatic structures of subjective expected utility assuming a finite state-space and state-dependent, connected, topological outcome-spaces. Building on the work of Karni and Schmeidler (1981) the analytical framework includes, in addition to the preference relation on acts, introspective preferences on hypothetical lotteries that are linked to the preference relation on acts by consistency axioms. The two models accommodate state-dependent preferences and yield subjective probabilities that correctly represent the decision-maker's beliefs. State-independent preferences are a special case. 相似文献
124.
In this paper, we develop noninformative priors for linear combinations of the means under the normal populations. It turns
out that among the reference priors the one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order probability matching criterion.
Moreover, the second order probability matching priors match alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and
are also HPD matching priors. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than the
other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. 相似文献
125.
Paul Blackwell 《Statistics and Computing》1994,4(3):213-218
This paper describes a conditional simulation technique which can be used to estimate probabilities associated with the distribution of the maximum of a real-valued process which can be written in the form of a moving average. The class of processes to which the technique applies includes non-stationary and spatial processes, and autoregressive processes. The technique is shown to achieve a considerable variance reduction compared with the obvious simulation-based estimator, particularly for estimating small upper-tail probabilities. 相似文献
126.
127.
Under stochastic dominance Choquet-expected utility and anticipated utility are identical 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Peter Wakker 《Theory and Decision》1990,29(2):119-132
The aim of this paper is to convince the reader that Choquet-expected utility, as initiated by Schmeidler (1982, 1989) for decision making under uncertainty, when formulated for decision making under risk naturally leads to anticipated utility, as initiated by Quiggin/Yaari. Thus the two generalizations of expected utility in fact are one. 相似文献
128.
Testing of a composite null hypothesis versus a composite alternative is considered when both have a related invariance structure. The goal is to develop conditional frequentist tests that allow the reporting of data-dependent error probabilities, error probabilities that have a strict frequentist interpretation and that reflect the actual amount of evidence in the data. The resulting tests are also seen to be Bayesian tests, in the strong sense that the reported frequentist error probabilities are also the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses under default choices of the prior distribution. The new procedures are illustrated in a variety of applications to model selection and multivariate hypothesis testing. 相似文献
129.
Lexicographic state-dependent subjective expected utility 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
An additive-across-states decomposition of lexicographic linear utility is easily obtained under a mild structural assumption concerning sufficient richness of acts in the domain of preference assessment, but the vectorial nature of lexicographic utility introduces two complexities absent in the real-valued case. First, the concept of state nullity becomes lexicographic rather than binary; and second, a standard construction for obtaining subjective probabilities from real-valued, state-dependent utilities produces matrices instead of nonnegative real numbers in the lexicographic setting. 相似文献
130.
Hanfeng Chen Jiahua Chen John D. Kalbfleisch 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2004,66(1):95-115
Summary. We consider a finite mixture model with k components and a kernel distribution from a general one-parameter family. The problem of testing the hypothesis k =2 versus k 3 is studied. There has been no general statistical testing procedure for this problem. We propose a modified likelihood ratio statistic where under the null and the alternative hypotheses the estimates of the parameters are obtained from a modified likelihood function. It is shown that estimators of the support points are consistent. The asymptotic null distribution of the modified likelihood ratio test proposed is derived and found to be relatively simple and easily applied. Simulation studies for the asymptotic modified likelihood ratio test based on finite mixture models with normal, binomial and Poisson kernels suggest that the test proposed performs well. Simulation studies are also conducted for a bootstrap method with normal kernels. An example involving foetal movement data from a medical study illustrates the testing procedure. 相似文献