Remainder Markov systematic sampling

Systematic sampling is the simplest and easiest of the most common sampling methods. However, when the population size N cannot be evenly divided by the sampling size n, systematic sampling cannot be performed. Not only is it difficult to determine the sampling interval k equivalent to the sampling probability of the sampling unit, but also the sample size will be inconstant and the sample mean will be a biased estimator of the population mean. To solve this problem, this paper introduces an improved method for systematic sampling: the remainder Markov systematic sampling method. This new method involves separately finding the first-order and second-order inclusion probabilities. This approach uses the Horvitz-Thompson estimator as an unbiased estimator of the population mean to find the variance of the estimator. This study examines the effectiveness of the proposed method for different super-populations.     

Flexible clustering via hidden hierarchical Dirichlet priors

The Bayesian approach to inference stands out for naturally allowing borrowing information across heterogeneous populations, with different samples possibly sharing the same distribution. A popular Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering probability distributions is the nested Dirichlet process, which however has the drawback of grouping distributions in a single cluster when ties are observed across samples. With the goal of achieving a flexible and effective clustering method for both samples and observations, we investigate a nonparametric prior that arises as the composition of two different discrete random structures and derive a closed-form expression for the induced distribution of the random partition, the fundamental tool regulating the clustering behavior of the model. On the one hand, this allows to gain a deeper insight into the theoretical properties of the model and, on the other hand, it yields an MCMC algorithm for evaluating Bayesian inferences of interest. Moreover, we single out limitations of this algorithm when working with more than two populations and, consequently, devise an alternative more efficient sampling scheme, which as a by-product, allows testing homogeneity between different populations. Finally, we perform a comparison with the nested Dirichlet process and provide illustrative examples of both synthetic and real data.     

Semiparametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function under competing risks and left-truncated sampling

In this article, we propose semiparametric methods to estimate the cumulative incidence function of two dependent competing risks for left-truncated and right-censored data. The proposed method is based on work by Huang and Wang (1995). We extend previous model by allowing for a general parametric truncation distribution and a third competing risk before recruitment. Based on work by Vardi (1989), several iterative algorithms are proposed to obtain the semiparametric estimates of cumulative incidence functions. The asymptotic properties of the semiparametric estimators are derived. Simulation results show that a semiparametric approach assuming the parametric truncation distribution is correctly specified produces estimates with smaller mean squared error than those obtained in a fully nonparametric model.     

健康与贸易,孰轻孰重?——SPS措施的保护目的探讨

卫生与植物检疫（SPS）措施是各国以科学为依据制定的保护消费者健康和环境安全的法规标准。随着SPS措施在国际贸易中的广泛使用，其保护目标常常被质疑是为了保护贸易，而非健康。本文基于2001—2018年WTO成员针对农产品的SPS通报数据，分别选取代表“健康保护”和“贸易保护”的指标，采用零膨胀负二项回归模型（ZINB），研究SPS措施的保护目的。结果发现，与健康相关的变量与WTO成员的SPS措施通报数显著相关，SPS措施主要是为了保护消费者的健康，但也存在贸易保护的嫌疑；发达国家SPS措施保护贸易的嫌疑更大；加工农产品SPS措施相比初级农产品更具有贸易保护倾向。     

On Sampling with Prescribed Second‐order Inclusion Probabilities

Abstract. Methods to perform fixed size sampling with prescribed second‐order inclusion probabilities are presented. The focus is on a conditional Poisson design of order 2, a CP(2) design. It is an exponential design of quadratic type and it is carefully studied. In particular, methods to find the suitable values of the parameters and methods to sample are described. Small examples illustrate.     

Nearly optimal truncated group sequential test on binomial proportions

In this article, we systematically study the optimal truncated group sequential test on binomial proportions. Through analysis of the cost structure, average test cost is introduced as a new optimality criterion. According to the new criterion, the optimal tests on different design parameters including the boundaries, success discriminant value, stage sample vector, stage size, and the maximum sample size are defined. Since the computation time in finding optimal designs by exhaustive search is intolerably long, group sequential sample space sorting method and procedures are developed to find the near-optimal ones. In comparison with the international standard ISO2859-1, the truncated group sequential designs proposed in this article can reduce the average test costs around 20%.     

Human resource management in the just-in-time environment

Successful just-in-time (JIT) implementation requires a multiskilled group-oriented and self-disciplined workforce with good quantitative skills. Little discussion exists in the JIT literature concerning the development of such a workforce. The human resource management (HRM) literature deals with employee issues but does not identify strategies for achieving a JIT workforce. In order to identify appropriate HRM strategies for a JIT environment, a comprehensive model is presented to show the critical linkage between JIT and HRM. Interactions between legal issues, management and union, and human input are examined. The impact of US labour laws on HRM practices is discussed and contrasted with Japanese practices. The literature review of HRM-related JIT articles suggests that HRM practices in the areas of staffing, training and development, compensation, and employee retention can be used to develop an effective JIT workforce. The article will help production managers to understand the impact of specific HRM strategies that are appropriate for developing a JIT workforce.     

An exact test for trend among binomial proportions based on a modified Baumgartner-Weiß-Schindler statistic

The Cochran-Armitage test is the most frequently used test for trend among binomial proportions. This test can be performed based on the asymptotic normality of its test statistic or based on an exact null distribution. As an alternative, a recently introduced modification of the Baumgartner-Weiß-Schindler statistic, a novel nonparametric statistic, can be used. Simulation results indicate that the exact test based on this modification is preferable to the Cochran-Armitage test. This exact test is less conservative and more powerful than the exact Cochran-Armitage test. The power comparison to the asymptotic Cochran-Armitage test does not show a clear winner, but the difference in power is usually small. The exact test based on the modification is recommended here because, in contrast to the asymptotic Cochran-Armitage test, it guarantees a type I error rate less than or equal to the significance level. Moreover, an exact test is often more appropriate than an asymptotic test because randomization rather than random sampling is the norm, for example in biomedical research. The methods are illustrated with an example data set.     

A jackknife variance estimator for unequal probability sampling

Summary.  The jackknife method is often used for variance estimation in sample surveys but has only been developed for a limited class of sampling designs. We propose a jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design. We demonstrate design consistency of this estimator for a broad class of point estimators. A Monte Carlo study shows how the proposed estimator may improve on existing estimators.