考虑信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型

坚决打好污染防治攻坚战是建设全面小康社会三大任务之一,环境污染群体性事件影响社会稳定和生态文明建设。在当今信息渠道多元化的自媒体时代下,群众能够通过信息搜索行为为决策获取信息。本文考虑了群众信息搜索行为,构建周边居民信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型,分析了不同条件下均衡策略选择,以及在各种地方政府补贴水平和暗箱操作程度下,周边居民的收益变化情况和策略选择差异。结果表明：当政府的暗箱操作程度较低时,群众的最优化策略为信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“抗议”,否则群众的最优化策略为直接抗议。当群众对项目污染程度为严重的先验概率较低且政府的暗箱操作程度比较高时,群众将选择不抗议策略。当周边居民的识别能力较差,群众将会选择策略信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“不抗议”,当暗箱操作程度足够大时,群众将会选择策略直接抗议。随着地方政府提供补贴水平的增加,群众的抗议强度减弱。了解群众的最优决策,有利于政府对环境群体性事件进行防范和应对,维护社会稳定。     

A Bayesian analysis for the Block and Basu bivariate exponential distribution in the presence of covariates and censored data

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian Analysis for the Block and Basu bivariate exponential distribution using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and considering lifetimes in presence of covariates and censored data. Posterior summaries of interest are obtained using the popular WinBUGS software. Numerical illustrations are introduced considering a medical data set related to the recurrence times of infection for kidney patients and a medical data set related to bone marrow transplantation for leukemia.     

越轨与规训：网络人肉搜索的道德失范及镜鉴研究

网络技术革新与社会变迁息息相关。然而,伴随网络技术的飞速发展,众多由网络引发的社会弊病日渐凸显, 其中网络人肉搜索俨然是网络入侵现实生活的代表性产物。网络人肉搜索现象是伴随现代网络技术发展到一定时期 而出现的代表性网络社会现象。作为一种网络搜索工具,网络人肉搜索有着显见的优缺点：在强化社会舆论监督的同 时,衍生出肆意侵犯他人隐私、道德观念“去传统化”、道德发展“内卷化”等道德失范问题。为了避免恶意网络人肉搜 索带来的诸多社会越轨行为,需要从完善法律法规、贯彻道德自律准则、优化技术工具等维度来对网络世界进行正确 的规训,从而涤净网络公共空间,使互联网成为推动我国经济结构转型的关键驱动力。     

低碳环境下的车辆路径问题及禁忌搜索算法研究

基于节能减排的新视角,本文研究了低碳环境下由第三方提供运输服务的车辆路径问题,在安排车辆路径时,同时考虑了能耗、碳排放和租车费用,而这些费用不仅与距离有关,也与客户点的需求量和车辆速度有关。提出了考虑车辆运量和速度的能耗计算方法,建立了非满载运输方式下的低碳路径模型——LCRP。设计了基于路径划分的禁忌搜索算法RS-TS对问题进行求解,该算法引入了一种新颖的路径编码与解码算法WSS,采用了三种邻域搜索方法。通过基准测试实例验证了算法能有效地找到满意解,并揭示了距离、能耗、行驶时间等参数之间的关系,实验分析表明采用低碳路径安排更加经济环保且选择中低的交通速度更有利于节约能耗和降低碳排放。     

Inference in segmented line regression: a simulation study

A segmented line regression model has been used to describe changes in cancer incidence and mortality trends [Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Feuer, E.J. and Midthune, D.N., 2000, Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 335–351. Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Yu, B., Barrett., M.J. and Feuer, E.J., 2004, Comparability of segmented line regression models. Biometrics, 60, 1005–1014.]. The least squares fit can be obtained by using either the grid search method proposed by Lerman [Lerman, P.M., 1980, Fitting segmented regression models by grid search. Applied Statistics, 29, 77–84.] which is implemented in Joinpoint 3.0 available at http://srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/index.html, or by using the continuous fitting algorithm proposed by Hudson [Hudson, D.J., 1966, Fitting segmented curves whose join points have to be estimated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61, 1097–1129.] which will be implemented in the next version of Joinpoint software. Following the least squares fitting of the model, inference on the parameters can be pursued by using the asymptotic results of Hinkley [Hinkley, D.V., 1971, Inference in two-phase regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 736–743.] and Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975a, On asymptotic distribution theory in segmented regression Problems-Identified Case. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 49–83.] Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975b, The log likelihood ratio in segmented regression. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 84–97.] Via simulations, this paper empirically examines small sample behavior of these asymptotic results, studies how the two fitting methods, the grid search and the Hudson's algorithm affect these inferential procedures, and also assesses the robustness of the asymptotic inferential procedures.     

The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once‐for‐all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high‐school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.     

坚持用科学发展观统领学校工作

通过开展深入学习实践科学发展观活动,结合校情,北京联合大学党委深入理解和全面把握科学发展观的科学内涵与精神实质,并把其落实到学校建设的各个方面。校党委紧紧抓住发展这个第一要义,全力推进学校工作,重点解决了几个长期以来影响和制约学校发展的问题,实现了各项工作的全面协调发展。同时,学校还坚持＂以人为本＂,科学开展思想政治工作,采取了多项惠及广大师生员工的措施,保持了学校发展的良好态势,向着实现有特色高水平的办学目标迈进。     

基于Tabu搜索方法的配电网重构的一种新方法

配电网重构是一个组合优化问题,它不仅是配电系统循环控制的重要方法,也是配电管理系统的重要组成部分.随着智能技术的不断发展,用智能算法解决组合优化问题成为一种可能.在配电网重构时,当以最小开关操作程度作为目标函数就可转化为线性规划问题;以最小网损为目标函数,可转化为混合整数线性规划问题.基于配电线路重构模型,以最小开关操作程度和最小网损为目标函数,用Tabu搜索方法解决组合优化问题,最后验证了此方法的合理性和可用性.     

A reactive tabu search algorithm for the vehicle routing problem with simultaneous pickups and deliveries

The vehicle routing problem with pickups and deliveries (VRPPD) extends the vehicle routing problem (VRP) by allowing customers to both send and receive goods. The main difficulty of the problem is that the load of vehicles is fluctuating rather than decreasing as in the VRP. We design a reactive tabu search metaheuristic that can check feasibility of proposed moves quickly and reacts to repetitions to guide the search. Several new best solutions are found for benchmark problems.