上市公司财务困境预警的Logit模型实证研究

把传统财务指标与现金流指标结合起来,利用logit方法构建了一个上市公司财务困境预警模型,该模型对预测样本进行实证研究,证明是一种有效、实用的预测方法。     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

从社会历史存在物维度看社会科学研究方法的特殊性

社会历史存在物就是以自然存在物和客观实在性为前提,以实践为中介或在实践基础上创造建构的社会历史性物质实体、物质性活动及其功能性的关系、结构和规律等。这一内含人及人的实践的存在物规定了社会科学研究方法至少应具以下特殊性:与自然科学研究方法相互渗透更彼此区别;具体研究过程中无法剔除主客互逆悖论;在前提假定、要件构成及具体的研究技术与细节方面有自己的特殊要求;其最高层次、最终境界与核心问题是一种社会历史认识论     

The Time Series and Cross‐Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators

In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of within groups (WG), GMM, and LIML estimators for an autoregressive model with random effects when both T and N tend to infinity. GMM and LIML are consistent and asymptotically equivalent to the WG estimator. When T/N→ 0 the fixed T results for GMM and LIML remain valid, but WG, although consistent, has an asymptotic bias in its asymptotic distribution. When T/N tends to a positive constant, the WG, GMM, and LIML estimators exhibit negative asymptotic biases of order 1/T, 1/N, and 1/(2N−T), respectively. In addition, the crude GMM estimator that neglects the autocorrelation in first differenced errors is inconsistent as T/N→c>0, despite being consistent for fixed T. Finally, we discuss the properties of a random effects pseudo MLE with unrestricted initial conditions when both T and N tend to infinity.     

End‐of‐Sample Instability Tests

This paper considers tests for structural instability of short duration, such as at the end of the sample. The key feature of the testing problem is that the number, m, of observations in the period of potential change is relatively small—possibly as small as one. The well‐known F test of Chow (1960) for this problem only applies in a linear regression model with normally distributed iid errors and strictly exogenous regressors, even when the total number of observations, n+m, is large. We generalize the F test to cover regression models with much more general error processes, regressors that are not strictly exogenous, and estimation by instrumental variables as well as least squares. In addition, we extend the F test to nonlinear models estimated by generalized method of moments and maximum likelihood. Asymptotic critical values that are valid as n→∞ with m fixed are provided using a subsampling‐like method. The results apply quite generally to processes that are strictly stationary and ergodic under the null hypothesis of no structural instability.     

习近平文化思想：马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化相结合的理论指向

党的二十大报告再次提出了把马克思主义基本原理与中华优秀传统文化相结合,此后党和国家领导人在不同的场合多次强调这一思想。如何认识和理解这一结合?它具有怎样的理论指向?有研究者从文化思想的宏观视角,表达了深刻的理论洞见,却忽视了这一主张提出时的具体时空情境,以致偏离了二者结合的本质及特征。事实上,从性质上来说,马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化相结合是新时代中国的一项文化政策,其出发点是实现马克思主义中国化时代化,其理论指向在新时代体现为习近平文化思想,这是中国共产党在新时代背景下回应时代理论需求的结果。在与西方理论竞争中,中国文化相关理论的竞争力还不够强,也不能满足中国特色社会主义现代化建设的发展需要。因此,中国文化理论的供需矛盾形成了当前中国社会文化发展的困境。这一困境引起了以习近平同志为核心的党中央的高度重视,激发了中国共产党发展中国文化理论的思想动力。中国共产党通过制定文化发展政策,绘制中国文化发展蓝图,以马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化相结合作为理论创新方法,扎根中国历史经验和社会主义实践经验,形成马克思主义中国化时代化的文化理论最新成果——习近平文化思想。习近平文化思想是一个与时俱进的开...     

论建筑创作整合思维方法及其应用

本文针对建筑创作思维方法进行研究 ,提出了研究整合思维方法的目的、意义以及功能 ,论述了以“真、善、美”作为建筑创作的追求目标和应用整合思维方法进行建筑创作应遵循的基本原则     

今本《大唐新语》非伪书辨--与吴冠文女士商榷

吴冠文《关于今本"<大唐新语>"的真伪问题》一文提出了今本《大唐新语》是明人伪造的观点,这一观点值得商榷。《澹生堂书目》将《大唐新语》与《唐世说新语》分别著录在两个不同的类目,是因为采用了互著法,与真伪问题无涉;《玄赏斋书目》是伪书目,不足为证。宋代类书《太平广记》、《太平御览》等所征引的《大唐新语》在今本中几乎都保存下来了,并没有有意删削的痕迹;今本《大唐新语》与《何氏语林》中所引《大唐新语》不一致,是因为何良俊在引书过程中的删改和失误所形成的。今本《大唐新语》中有与刘肃之后所出书《唐书新语》相同的文字内容,应当是《唐书新语》采用了《大唐新语》,或二者同出一源。没有任何证据表明今本《大唐新语》是伪书。     

流动人口变动对广东出生人口数量影响研究

大量研究证实流动人口会降低全国各城市生育率水平,但是两者的数量关系仍然不是十分清楚。本文以广东为例,利用1990—2005年广东流动人口和出生人口数据,对流动人口变动与广东出生人口数量关系进行了实证研究。     

型塑法律思维是法学专业人才培养的重要目标

法学专业以实践性强为其专业特色,因此,它应当以对人才的从业技能,至少是依法行为以及分析问题和解决问题的能力之培养为不可或缺的重要目标。然而,我国法学教育长期以来缺乏对学生法律思维养成的自觉,导致法学教育型塑法律思维功能的失却。由之,我们必须努力变革现有的法学教育模式,实现法学本科教育教学观念由偏重知识传授向注重学生职业法律思维养成的转型。这种转型虽难度较大,但必须为之努力。