新兴产业政策决策过程中的不确定性管理研究——基于物联网产业的宏观政策决策过程的案例

采用纵贯研究、内容分析、深度访谈相结合的定性研究方法,以推动我国物联网产业发展的3个宏观政策决策过程为研究对象,旨在讨论政企互动是如何帮助政府进行不确定性管理的.研究结论表明:新兴产业的宏观政策决策是由数个存在递进关系的渐进式阶段组成,而每个渐进式事项的解决依赖于众多在政企互动中形成的微观政策工具的实施.政企互动帮助政策决策者通过4种机制(信息获取、行动协调、企业行动承诺和政府政策承诺)实现了对因信息缺乏以及对产业行动者资源依赖所造成的不确定性的管理.     

A New Test for Short Memory in Long Memory Time Series

This article considers short memory characteristics in a long memory process. We derive new asymptotic results for the sample autocorrelation difference ratios. We used these results to develop a new portmanteau test that determines if short memory parameters are statistically significant. In simulations, the new test can detect short memory components more often than the Ljung-Box test when these short memory components are in fact within a long memory process. Interestingly, our test finds short memory autocorrelations in U.S. inflation rate data, whereas the Ljung-Box test fails to find these autocorrelations. Modeling these short memory autocorrelations of the inflation rate data leads to improved model accuracy and more precise prediction.     

儒商萌现--浅论《聊斋志异》中的商人形象

《聊斋志异》中,已经出现了儒商的形象,这是文言小说的重大收获.儒商形象的基本特征是诚信为本的经商道德,义利合一的经商准则,诗酒儒雅的经商心理,科学理性的商务管理和回报社会的人文关怀.与此同时,下位性、官本位和农耕圈是《聊斋志异》儒商的历史局限.     

有限理性背景之下的情绪功能

有限理性模式是基于一种假设,即时间、资源和智力能量是有限的。因为这些局限性,人类理解和解决问题的思维能力非常有限,通常在决策时,我们只能做到有限理性,难以达到完全理性的要求。作为非理性因素的情绪能够影响各方面的决策,通过背景情绪,与任务相关情绪和预期情绪三种途径在决策中起着重要的作用。     

综合法学:法的全景解读

法律是什么?是形式、价值、还是社会事实?三大法学派正是在这一问题上展开了长期的论战。20世纪,西方兴起了一个试图融合三大法学派为一体的综合法学,他们力图构建一个“适当的”、“一体化的”法理学。他们批判了三大法学派的偏执与片面,主张用综合的方法研究法律,并得出了虽然各具特色,但都试图溶三大法学为一体的“综合”的法的概念。在资本主义国家仍然存在政治、经济和意识形态冲突的情况下,想在综合法学这一不封闭的容器中把三大法学全部装进去多少带有一些理想的色彩。     

Bayesian boundedly rational agents play the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

In this paper a model of boundedly rational decision making in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma is proposed in which: (1) each player is Bayesianrational; (2) this is common knowledge; (3) players are constrained by limited state spaces (their Bayesian minds) in processing (1) and (2). Under these circumstances, we show that cooperative behavior may arise as an individually optimal response, except for the latter part of the game. Indeed, such behaviorwill necessarily obtain in long enough games if belief systems satisfy a natural condition: essentially, that all events consistent with the players' analysis of the game be attributed by them positive (although arbitrarily small) subjective probability.     

泛长三角旅游一体化下安徽旅游产品的整合营销

整合营销理论在旅游产品生产和销售中的应用日臻成熟。近年来,泛长三角旅游产品整合营销在理论上和实践上都得到了长足的发展。在泛长三角旅游一体化进程中,安徽省的旅游产品相对单一、产业规模较小、整合开发相对缓慢。安徽旅游产业应以地缘为基础、以品牌为方向进行旅游认知、品牌构建、旅游供需整合和旅游相关者关系整合,把自然山水、休闲养生、人文佛教的徽风皖韵有机结合起来,实现旅游主题、线路、品牌有机融合,推出基于泛长三角一体化的安徽旅游产品,形成泛长三角旅游的重要一极。     

Modelling change in cognitive understanding with finite mixtures

Psychological theories often posit the existence of several different states. Individuals are viewed as belonging to one of the states at a given age, but with development pass to another state. A main problem in evaluating such theories is representing the transition from one state to another over age. A stochastic transition framework is proposed which should be useful in many different settings. The model is illustrated with data from a cognitive development task.