A simple monotone process with application to radiocarbon-dated depth chronologies

Summary.  We propose a new and simple continuous Markov monotone stochastic process and use it to make inference on a partially observed monotone stochastic process. The process is piecewise linear, based on additive independent gamma increments arriving in a Poisson fashion. An independent increments variation allows very simple conditional simulation of sample paths given known values of the process. We take advantage of a reparameterization involving the Tweedie distribution to provide efficient computation. The motivating problem is the establishment of a chronology for samples taken from lake sediment cores, i.e. the attribution of a set of dates to samples of the core given their depths, knowing that the age–depth relationship is monotone. The chronological information arises from radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating at a subset of depths. We use the process to model the stochastically varying rate of sedimentation.     

集成化供应链绩效评价方法研究

提出了一种基于客户服务水平的集成化供应链绩效评价的区间数线性规划方法。通过引入系数a,将区间数线性规划问题转化为参数线性规划问题,使评价方法能够反映实现客户服务承诺效用的大小,其评价过程更具柔性,并通过实例分析了该方法的应用效果。研究结果表明,多客户服务是企业所在的供应链之间竞争的焦点,处于集成化供应链响应市场需求的关键环节,而基于客户服务水平的集成化供应链绩效评价能较准确地反映供应链整体绩效,具有重要的参考价值。     

GPS/SINS组合导航系统的多传感器最优融合算法

对GPS/SINS组合导航的工作原理和模型建立进行详细的分析,设置了两个传感器。提出一种基于信息融合的导航参数最优估计滤波方法。通过计算机仿真说明该方法可提高导航系统的计算精度和速度,有较好的容错性和环境适应性,具有实际使用价值。     

绍兴地区居住建筑节能整体设计探讨

绍兴地处夏热冬冷地区，通过探讨绍兴地区居住建筑节能整体设计遵循的原则，使规划设计为建筑节能提供有利的条件．     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

国库集中收付与会计集中核算的比较和选择

国库集中收付与会计集中核算是两种不同的财政管理模式。通过对两种模式基本内容的阐述,就两者在产生基础、行使职能、监控监督范围和力度,以及资金拨付和结存方式方面的异同进行了分析,指出会计集中核算模式存在有较多的潜在问题,明确地提出了应选择国库集中收付模式为财政部门改革的基本方向,并围绕这一模式的选择实施提出了相关配套性改革措施和建议。     

综合课程内容选择标准的理性思考

综合课程是 2 0世纪 6 0年代以来兴起的一种新的课程理论。其形式多种多样。它通过对不同视角的综合课程观的梳理 ,力图站在教育学的角度去审视和反思课程内容选择的尺度和原则。     

A knowledge chain management framework to support integrated decisions in global supply chains

Knowledge management has been identified as a key enabler to achieve organisation’s value chain competitiveness. It, however, has been facing fresh challenges in a global supply chain setting. This paper proposes a global knowledge chain management (GKCM) framework that identifies and prioritises critical knowledge that a global supply chain can focus on to support integrated decisions. The framework explores three types of global context knowledge, namely global market knowledge, global capacity knowledge and global supply network configuration knowledge. Empirical study has been undertaken within the manufacturing industry to evaluate the GKCM framework. Analytic network process has been explored as a key method to assess the importance of the global knowledge constructs from supply chain managers’ perspectives. A key contribution of the paper is that it advances existing knowledge chain management approaches within one organisation and its local supply chain to include the global context knowledge applicable to global manufacturing settings, and highlights how the GKCM framework can support global supply chain integrated decisions.     

The role of social support when giving up drug abuse: a female perspective

This article contains a presentation and analysis of the results from two qualitative studies, which examined female drug abusers' everyday lives and the social support available to them within their close relationships. Both studies concerned women who were participating in work-training or treatment programmes and who were in the process of giving up drug abuse. The two main questions concerned the supply of social support from the women's social networks and whether the amount of support available or lack of support had any impact on the exit process. Social support within different relationships of the women's social networks is presented, as well as different types of professional social support and treatment. The results in relation to previous research about female drug abusers and social support from gender and class perspectives are discussed. Conclusions about three important factors when creating a new life after drug abuse are drawn.     

A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using data from a prevalent cohort study

Summary.  Cohort studies of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) provide useful information on the past pattern of HIV diagnoses, progression of the disease and use of antiretroviral therapy. We propose a new method for using individual data from an open prevalent cohort study to estimate the incidence of HIV, by jointly modelling the HIV diagnosis, the inclusion in the cohort and the progression of the disease in a Markov model framework. The estimation procedure involves the construction of a likelihood function which takes into account the probability of observing the total number of subjects who are enrolled in the cohort and the probabilities of passage through the stages of disease for each observed subject conditionally on being included in the cohort. The estimator of the HIV infection rate is defined as the function which maximizes a penalized likelihood, and the solution of this maximization problem is approximated on a basis of cubic M -splines. The method is illustrated by using cohort data from a hospital-based surveillance system of HIV infection in Aquitaine, a region of south-western France. A simulation study is performed to study the ability of the model to reconstruct the incidence of HIV from prevalent cohort data.