民族地区农村社会保障制度建设的时间表研究--以云南省为例

作者分析了制定民族地区农村社会保障制度建设时间表需要正确处理好的几个关系,提出了不同保障制度实施的具体时间表及总体时间表,并针对时间表的制定进行了具体的财力和农民承受能力分析。     

第十三世达赖喇嘛转世灵童候选拉木登珠1938—1939年间滞留西宁问题探析

1938-1939年间,第十三世达赖喇嘛转世灵童候选拉木登珠被迫滞留西宁,学界多以此事为青海省政府主席马步芳牟取私利向西藏噶厦政府勒索钱财所为。但是,相关档案资料显示,此事经历了性质不同的两个阶段:前期中央政府利用在青海觅得达赖喇嘛转世灵童候选之机,通过阻留拉木登珠与西藏噶厦政府进行政治交涉,目的在于改善与西藏地方政府的关系,客观上为维护中央政府的权威创造了有利条件;后期马步芳违抗中央命令,扣留拉木登珠,企图借机控制西藏。在其政治阴谋失败后,又对西藏噶厦政府实施敲诈勒索。这一事件反映了民国政府在特定的历史条件下为维护中央政府对西藏主权所做的努力以及当时中国社会的政治无序状态。     

关于中国共产党名称定名的研究

关于中国共产党名称的定名 ,目前党史学界研究较少。笔者经过考察后认为 ,中国共产党名称的定名 ,是在列宁关于《加入共产国际的条件》的影响下所确定的     

Confession of prior knowledge about experimental procedures as a function of evaluation apprehension and commitment

Subjects' evaluation apprehension (anxiety about being judged by the experimenter) and commitment to (involvement in) the experiment were manipulated in an experimental study of subjects' honesty in postexperimental interviews. Previous studies have shown that subjects are typically dishonest in postexperimental interviews by refusing to admit prior knowledge of the experiment imparted to them by a confederate. It was found that both high apprehension and low commitment lead to greater subject honesty. Other features of the experimental design were successful in inducing subjects to be generally more honest than their counterparts in previous confederate tip-off studies.     

International cooperation in stockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions

This paper provides a unified treatment of oil stockpiling and demand restraint as policy responses for enhancing energy security and examines the implications of recent changes in the structure and performance of the international oil market for the design of policies. These issues are addressed using a dynamic programming framework in which international policy actions of key oil-importing countries are modeled as a Nash dynamic game. Significant policy implications from the analysis include: (1) the result that, with realistic assumptions about disruption risks and inventory capacities, differences between noncooperative and coordinated stockpile policies appear to be minor and (2) significant mutual gains could be reaped from a modest degree of collective restraint on normal market oil demand. The broader role of international cooperation in enhancing energy security is also discussed.     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

循环经济:三个方面的深化研究

随着循环经济成为国家战略,我国循环经济理论与实践已经处于需要深化研究的阶段。回顾1998年以来我国循环经济理论与实践的发展,对需要进一步理清和深化的问题进行评述。在此基础上, 从定位、理论和战略三个方面提出了深化循环经济研究的框架体系和发展方向。     

信用证欺诈及其防范对策

作为国际贸易主要支付方式的信用证 ,被誉为“国际商业的生命液”。但是一些不法分子却利用信用证单证交易的特点 ,相互勾结串通 ,在信用证运转的各个环节上疯狂地实施欺诈活动 ,给权益人造成巨大的经济损失 ,影响企业的正常发展 ,损害银行信誉 ,破坏交易秩序 ,危及整个信用证制度。因此 ,信用证各方当事人应对信用证欺诈进行有效的预防 ,本文就预防信用证欺诈的原则性措施和技术性措施进行了论述。     

Policy responses to external shocks in sub-Saharan African countries

The author analyzes the experience of sub-Saharan African countries with external shocks in the form of the deterioration of the terms of trade and the world recession between 1973 and 1978, with distinction made between low-income and middle-income countries. Adjustment to external shocks in low-income sub-Saharan African countries took largely the form of reductions in imports through lower rates of economic growth and lower income elasticity of import demand while these countries lost export market shares. Losses in export market shares were smaller in the middle-income countries and in the entire group, export performance was positively correlated with the rate of economic growth.