Meta-analysis of the impact of age structure on fertility

The paper uses a meta-analysis to comparatively evaluate the literature addressing the aggregate relationship between a populations age structure and fertility, as hypothesized by Richard Easterlin. The analysis is based on 334 estimated effects retrieved from 19 studies. The results suggest that several factors undermine the empirical support of the Easterlinian age structure/fertility link. These include the neglect of income, the use of relative cohort size to characterize the age structure, mis-specifications of the relevant age-cohorts, as well as the functional form and estimation technique. The results also suggest that the sample of published estimates possibly suffers from two types of publication bias, an under-representation of insignificant effects for small samples, and bias towards supportive effects in the earlier years followed by a bias towards negative effects as the literature matured.All correspondence to: Brigitte Waldorf. The authors appreciate the insightful comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers. The research also benefited from discussions with participants of the International Colloquium on Meta-analysis in Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, December 2002. Finally, we would like to thank David Brown, Meagan Cahill, Angela Donelson, Calvin Farris, and Melaney Seacat from the University of Arizona for their research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

The value of experiential approaches to evaluation training

The training of evaluators is an important task—important because of the good that well trained evaluators can do and because of the mischief that poorly trained evaluators can cause. There is broad agreement on the importance of producing evaluators who are methodologically versatile and organizationally savvy. To accomplish these educational ends it is necessary to supplement classroom based instruction with experiential approaches. This paper describes a theoretical model of an effective experiential educational program for training evaluators, assesses two operating programs against the requirements of the model, and reports the results of a quasi-experimental evaluation of the effectiveness of the programs in producing important educational outcomes.     

Minimax subset selection for the multinomial distribution

Let (X₁,…,X_k) be a multinomial vector with unknown cell probabilities (p₁,?,p_k). A subset of the cells is to be selected in a way so that the cell associated with the smallest cell probability is included in the selected subset with a preassigned probability, P¹. Suppose the loss is measured by the size of the selected subset, S. Using linear programming techniques, selection rules can be constructed which are minimax with respect to S in the class of rules which satisfy the P¹-condition. In some situations, the rule constructed by this method is the rule proposed by Nagel (1970). Similar techniques also work for selection in terms of the largest cell probability.     

农民日常反抗的道义标准与策略——斯科特的农民研究

詹姆斯·斯科特的农民日常反抗理论包含两个层面的论证,第一个层面是小农反抗的道义基础、标准和逻辑,即在生存线上挣扎的小农具有特殊的公正感和道德感,它包含两个基本原则：“安全第一”和“互惠”,忽视或破坏这两个原则,会激起小农的愤怒和反抗。第二个层面是,小农的力量和文化习惯等因素决定了小农的反抗是“日常反抗”,而非大规模的革命。这些看似微不足道的隐微反抗,包括行为层面的和象征性符号层面的,有其自身逻辑和意义,并影响着日常政治的运行。斯科特的研究堪称农民研究史上的一个拐点,对当今农民理论研究具有重要的借鉴意义。     

作为史家的王瑶与陈寅恪学术路径之交集蠡测

王瑶与陈寅恪不仅有师承关系,而且在学术路径上也交集颇多。总体而言,二者不仅在求是这一学术目的上颇为相合,其实现这一目的的学术路径,诸如＂从史实中求史识＂＂了解之同情＂＂内热的心情＂等,也很是类似。     

Unification of Dirichlet Methodology

In this article we provide a unified framework for solving Dirichlet related probability and waiting time problems. We consider a Pólya sampling scheme in which each time an object is selected, it is put back into the population along with c additional objects of the same type. By considering both fixed sample size and inverse sampling procedures, we unify the Dirichlet I, J, C, and D functions with their hypergeometric counterparts by extending these functions to Pólya sampling. We then use these functions to unify and extend the corresponding expected waiting time results.     

On some tests for independence in nonnormal situations: neyman'S C(A)test

A study is made of Neyman's C(a) test for testing independence in nonnormal situations. It is shown that it performs very well both in terms of the level of significance and the powereven for smallvalues of the samplesize. Also, in the case of the bivariate Polsson distribution, itis shown that Fisher's z and Student's t transforms of the sample correlation coefficient are good competitors for Neyman's procedure.

     

Two Statistics for Unconditional Exact Tests in Matched-Pairs Design

Abstract

In a recent article Hsueh et al. (Hsueh, H.-M., Liu, J.-P., Chen, J. J. (2001 Hsueh, H.-M., Liu, J.-P. and Chen, J. J. 2001. Unconditional exact tests for equivalence or noninferiority for paired binary endpoints. Biometrics, 57: 478–483. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Unconditional exact tests for equivalence or noninferiority for paired binary endpoints. Biometrics 57:478–483.) considered unconditional exact tests for paired binary endpoints. They suggested two statistics one of which is based on the restricted maximum-likelihood estimator. Properties of these statistics and the related tests are treated in this article.