青少年道德判断能力研究

道德教育重要组成部分的道德判断能力,在规范人际关系上发挥着法律所无法起到的作用,对此进行研究为中国学校道德教育提供有效的评估工具和手段．使道德教育更具科学性和可操作性。德国道德心理学家林德设计的“道德判断测验（MJT）”界定了道德认知和情感。对湖北省青少年的研究发现,青少年道德判断能力的总体相对偏低。在政治面貌这一特征上出现了显著差异,而性别职业学历、是否为独生子女、家住农村或城镇等方面的不同不会带来显著差异。具体到各特征内部,出现了年龄、政治面貌等值得进一步关注的问题。     

Measures of individual risk attitudes and portfolio choice: Evidence from pension participants

We use a large non-student sample to test how distinct measures of risk-attitudes relate to each other, to demographic characteristics and to real-life risk taking in the financial domain. These measures, namely the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), self-reported willingness to take risks in general, the choice in a hypothetical lottery, the score in the Domain Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, appear to be positively correlated and exhibit a certain degree of consistency. Furthermore, a subset of these measures is driven by similar demographic characteristics as such that males are more risk seeking and risk-aversion increases with age. Using extensive data on the retirement portfolios of the participants during the years 2008–2014, we find that all of these measures are positively correlated with the riskiness of individual portfolios. The self-reported willingness to take risks in general appears to be the most relevant measure in predicting actual risk-taking behavior.     

Do people think about absolute or relative price differences when choosing between substitute goods?

The article presents experimental evidence that shows that people often consider relative price differences in addition to absolute differences when choosing between substitute goods. Because the choice between substitute goods is a very common one, this is an important finding. The experiment uses scenarios in various consumption categories: hotel rooms, flights, and books. Subjects were either students or participants in an economics conference. The data allow to reject the hypothesis that people think only about relative price differences in favor of the hypothesis that people think about both relative and absolute price differences. Whether the price given to the subjects is that of the high-quality good or of the low-quality good makes a large difference, a result that is related to the endowment effect and the status quo bias. Implications of the results for business strategy and other areas are also discussed.     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

ABSTRACT

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

C2C卖家的诚信行为模式及其动态性研究

现有电子商务的信用评价体系单一维度的特点使得评级体系难以准确衡量、比较店铺在各维度之间的差异及其变化。为了提高C2C电子商务信用评级体系的信息揭示作用,本文试图从多维度指标分析店铺的诚信行为模式及其动态性。本文对淘宝7大行业不同信用等级的卖家的诚信指标数据进行聚类分析表明,店铺在动态评分、信用等级、好评率上分别具有六类不同的静态组合特征,信用积分在解释店铺诚信状态上弱于动态评分和好评率指标。动态模式分析表明,店铺的好评率、动态评分指标及其与同业行业比值会呈现出三个不同的组合变化趋势。最后本文提出对现有的评价体系改进,以体现店铺之间在模式上的差异,从而真实展现卖家的诚信水平。     

中国C2C交易市场电子服务质量对顾客忠诚的影响——以顾客满意和顾客价值为中介变量

通过构建整合性的理论研究模型，揭示了C2C交易市场电子服务质量、顾客满意、顾客价值以及顾客忠诚之间相互作用的机理。并对中国具有C2C网上购物经验的用户进行问卷调查，建立结构方程模型，采用验证性因子分析法实证检验研究假设。研究结果发现：（1）C2C网站的电子服务质量对顾客满意和顾客价值产生显著的正向影响；（2）C2C卖家的电子服务质量对顾客满意产生显著的正向影响，对顾客价值的影响不显著；（3）顾客满意和顾客价值都对顾客忠诚产生显著的正向影响；（4）确认了顾客满意和顾客价值在C2C交易市场电子服务质量和顾客忠诚之间的中介效应。根据研究结论对C2C交易网站和网上卖家提高电子服务质量和顾客忠诚提出一些富有决策指导意义的对策和建议。     

Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference,development and communication: some comments

We extend the average derivatives estimator to the case of functionally dependent regressors. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and has a limiting normal distribution. A consistent covariance matrix estimator for the proposed estimator is provided.     

淘宝网C2C交易市场的运营措施分析

我国的C2C电子商务交易市场已进入寡头垄断时期，呈现出“三强纷争、淘宝独大”的局面。淘宝网的市场决策将引领和决定这个市场的未来发展方向，对此加以研究分析意义深刻。     

科学发展观的经济功能——以诺思的意识形态理论为视角

以诺思意识形态理论为视角,科学发展观是一种成功的意识形态,它能在节约人民对于党执政合法性地位的认同成本、减小制度转轨与实施的成本代价、克服经济活动中的"搭便车"行为、节约用于人民群众的激励成本以及消除人们参与市场经济活动的摩擦成本等方面发挥积极的作用.