Macroeconomic stabilization of primary commodities price cycles in developing economies

This paper proposes a strategy for stabilizing macroeconomic policy to address jointly the effects of changes in the prices of food, minerals and energy (oil). Our approach differs from the general literature, which analyzes the effects of a commodity boom or bust and therefore the solutions in terms of economic policy separately, that is, by type of commodity. The stabilization strategy that we propose considers a key fact affecting many open economies, namely, that they not only are affected by increases or decreases in commodity prices, but also benefit from them. Consequently, we use a structural model for an open economy with restricted households to show that welfare could be improved with a fiscal rule incorporating transfers to stabilize household consumption. This strategy noticeably dominates an aggressive monetary policy focused only on stabilizing inflation and a fiscal policy that has an excessive bias toward saving income from exports.     

China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence

The China–Africa relationship has blossomed in recent years and the scale and scope of Chinese engagement and investment in the latter have expanded enormously in the last decade. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic linkages and volatility transmission mechanisms between Chinese and African stock markets in recent years while highlighting the relative importance of Chinese capital flows and investments. We utilise dynamic forecasting models including Bayesian VAR and BEKK GARCH to estimate both price and volatility behaviours of Chinese and 15 selected African stock markets. Our empirical results indicate strong evidence of spillover effects in terms of both price movement and volatility behaviour, implying that Chinese and African stock markets are showing signs of integration. For price movement, bidirectional feedback relationships between Chinese and most of the African stock markets are observed, suggesting that both Chinese and African stock markets could influence each other. China has been building a strong African partnership and, therefore, increasing its trade and investment influences in the region. Examining volatility transmissions, at least one spillover effect (shock and/or volatility) from China to most of the African stock markets is reported. This suggests that the Chinese stock market now plays an influential role across African stock markets given that it has major investments in 46 out of 54 countries. Our findings show important portfolio management implications as a surge in Chinese investments provide new portfolio diversification opportunities for international investors. Policy-wise, we believe further market-oriented reforms and carefully designed and long-term development policies are required to boost capacity for development and achieve sustainable trade and growth.     

The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

We employ a new approach to the twin deficit hypothesis aimed at enhancing policy making in Egypt. In contrast to the conventional twin deficit hypothesis between the current account, which comprises many items out of governments’ scope of maneuvering, and the budget deficit, we track the causal link between Egypt’s merchandise trade deficit and the budget deficit. We begin first by examining the conventional twin deficit hypothesis using a VAR model, which implies short run reverse causation running from the current account deficit to the budget deficit. Second, as cointegration exists between the budget deficit and the merchandise trade deficit, we run a multivariate VECM model which refutes the twin deficit hypothesis in favor of the current account targeting hypothesis. In policy terms, ameliorating Egypt’s trade balance would ultimately improve its fiscal balance as well.     

Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking

This study conducts policy-based macro stress testing of the Indian banking sector and also assesses its resilience towards compliance with BASEL norms with the aid of an empirical macro-financial model. It uses scenario analysis and quantitative techniques to capture the impact of macroeconomic stress on the stability of the Indian banks by evaluating financial soundness indicators (credit quality, quantity and quality of capital adequacy). The scenarios are generated through policy-based shocks vis-à-vis other external shocks. The results from the estimation of the model indicate a cointegrating relationship between credit quality and key macroeconomic variables including output growth rate, interest rate, money growth rate and exchange rate. The results of the scenario analysis reveal that the Indian banking sector remains largely sound in terms of total regulatory capital adequacy ratio as per current BASEL II and even BASEL III requirement. The results also show that expansionary monetary policy impacts credit quality and capital adequacy in a positive and significant manner via its effect on the economy’s growth rate.     

基于C2C模式下的女装品牌推广探析

随着互联网在全球的普及以及近年来我国服装产业的迅猛发展,电子商务产业也随之崛起,越来越多的女性选择在网上购买女装品牌。从C2C模式的内涵及女装品牌市场的发展现状为出发点,分析了利用C2C模式是推广女装品牌的基础与保障,结合当前网上女装市场的现状,归纳总结出女装品牌推广过程中存在各类女装品牌存在竞争性,女装品牌的信息与品质不符;信用评价体系不健全,女装品牌推广的市场环境差;第三方支付遭遇难题,女装品牌推广后劲不足等问题,最后,笔者针对问题提出了利用多种新型营销手段实事求是的宣传,打造女装品牌的核心竞争力;健全信用评价体系,完善市场监督机制;加快第三方支付平台的改革,创建女装品牌推广模型等对策,旨在为女装品牌推广建言献策。     

客运专线32 m箱梁徐变效应研究

针对已建成通车的武广、沪杭客运专线两种32 m跨预应力混凝土箱梁,对比分析施工阶段梁体跨中上拱变形实测数据,探讨箱梁在施工阶段的徐变特性。在此基础上,应用MIDAS/Civil分析软件,采用ACI 209R收缩徐变计算模式,根据设计图纸和施工控制要求,建立梁体有限元模型,对比两种箱梁的徐变变形,与实测结果互为验证,预测二恒铺装对梁体变形影响和铺装后期徐变变形。结果表明,沪杭客专32 m梁徐变变形较武广客专32 m梁小,变形控制措施更为完善。     

An iterative sparse algorithm for the penalized maximum likelihood estimator in mixed effects model

In this paper, we propose a new iterative sparse algorithm (ISA) to compute the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) or penalized MLE of the mixed effects model. The sparse approximation based on the arrow-head (A-H) matrix is one solution which is popularly used in practice. The A-H method provides an easy computation of the inverse of the Hessian matrix and is computationally efficient. However, it often has non-negligible error in approximating the inverse of the Hessian matrix and in the estimation. Unlike the A-H method, in the ISA, the sparse approximation is applied “iteratively” to reduce the approximation error at each Newton Raphson step. The advantages of the ISA over the exact and A-H method are illustrated using several synthetic and real examples.     

Imagining The Sociological Imagination: the biographical context of a sociological classic

Charles Wright Mills's arguments in The Sociological Imagination are very popular and this paper focuses on the biographical context in which his programmatic statements were occasioned. This breaks new ground by locating The Sociological Imagination and earlier programmatic statements in the professional and personal travails that motivated them. This approach is adopted in order to display the intersection between biography and sociology in Mills's life and career, a feature that he made a central part of sociology's promise. The paper utilizes this approach to reflect on the reasons why The Sociological Imagination became so popular and was able to transcend Mills's general unpopularity at the time of his death; and as part of the explanation of why the dismissal of the book on its publication contrasts with the contemporary view, enabling it to transpose successfully to a time significantly different than at its writing.     

关于C语言指针定义的讨论

在教学和实践中发现,C语言指针定义的信息量不足,难于解释指针使用的许多方面。本文大胆地剖析了已有的定义,从中找出问题所在,并试图加以改进。还结合实例给出了“拟构”概念,较好地说明了相关知识尤其是指针与数组的关系。     

消费者在线交易信任影响因素的实证研究——来自台湾的证据

因特网强大的通讯与实时能力使之成为绝佳的交易平台,随着因特网使用者的日益增加,网络购物在台湾也形成一股热潮,然而在因特网的环境中,网络消费者对网站的信任相当薄弱。为了找出网络消费者对网络商店的信任关键因素,提高网络商店的收益,本研究希望通过实证的数据分析,了解B2C购物环境下消费者信任程度的决定因素,并给出一个整合的理论模型,从而希望对网站经营者提供管理实践的启示。