Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

社会学的想象与想象的社会学:帕森斯、米尔斯社会学研究进路比较论要

帕森斯的社会理论和米尔斯的社会研究是“二战”后美国社会学的两条重要且独特的研究路径。帕森斯倡导社会科学中的一般理论研究,核心在于理论和经验的互惠发展的动力学,意在促进社会科学的积累性发展,但确立统一的社会科学无异于建立一种不可能实现的“学术巴别塔”。米尔斯强调的基于社会学想象的社会研究纲领,实质上是一种政治导向的社会研究,最终难免落入学术和政治的双重“想象”困境。研究范式的差异,导致他们对其身处的美国社会作出了判然有别的研究论断。进而言之,这种差异的背后隐含着研究者对现代性问题的不同态度以及政治立场上的深刻分歧。     

以“匠人精神”,写“社会学的诗”:米尔斯的社会学遗产之重估

在米尔斯诞辰百年之际,本文试图重估其社会学遗产。本文指出,米尔斯作为“智识匠人”的志业,即是从内外两个面向揭示美国文明自19世纪末以来的转型及其危机。就内部面向而言,本文聚焦于米尔斯及其同时代的批评者关于美国社会的不同判断及其分歧的实质;就外部面向而言,本文则以米尔斯关于古巴革命的晚期著述为核心,考察米尔斯对古巴问题的讨论在何种意义上构成了对美国民主的外部批评。但是,对米尔斯的社会学遗产的重估,并不止步于此。米尔斯关于社会学写作的文体和“风格”的想象,即其关于“社会学的诗”的论述,构成了其学术遗产的另一个重要部分。本文指出,“社会学的诗”所倡导的审美与人格意蕴,实则是对社会学写作的人文传统的回归。最后,本文讨论了在中文学界的语境下,米尔斯的社会学研究所具有的启发意义。     

Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.     

ICT and Rural Development: a Study of Warana Wired Village Project in India

In the present century, the advancements in information and communication technologies (ICTs) are changing the various components of human life. The changes in the ICTs have brought a positive impact in the process of public service delivery and socio-economic structure of communities. In India, e-Governance applications in the recent past have demonstrated their positive impact in minimizing the processing costs, increase transparency and support economic development by income generating ventures, increase in agricultural production, and improvements in health and education sectors, all of which promote the overall quality of life of rural people. This paper reviews the e-Governance initiative called the Warana Wired Village Project in the rural areas of Maharashtra, India. It evaluates the contribution of Warana Project in providing the transactional services for the rural people with the benefit of time and cost savings in obtaining the public services with efficiency and effectiveness and it also examines changes in agricultural productivity and improved quality of life due to the ICT services.

Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey

Measuring, analyzing and understanding systemic risk in financial system have become very important in the light of the recent global crisis. In this study, we follow Holló, Kremer, and Lo Duca (2012) and evaluate systemic stress of financial system of Turkey with a high frequency (daily) financial stress index which consists of daily 13 financial market indicators. Dynamics of the financial stress index indicate that the index creates proper signals to the well-known financial stress events. The dynamic interaction between financial stress and real economic activity is investigated with application of structural VAR (SVAR) model. Results of the study suggest that deterioration of financial conditions impacts real economic activity significantly and adversely.     

The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries

This study examines the effects of adult and non-adult mortality on the long-run level of income in a heterogeneous dynamic and cross-sectionally dependent panel. Employing data for 20 countries between 1800 and 2010, it is found that (i) while non-adult mortality has no long-run effect on GDP per capita, reductions in adult mortality lead to statistically and economically significant increases in the long-run level of per capita income; (ii) there are no significant differences in the long-run effects of adult mortality and non-adult mortality on GDP per capita before and after the onset of the demographic transition; and (iii) mortality in middle adulthood has the greatest impact on economic development, whereas early adulthood mortality and mortality in later adulthood have little to no impact on the long-run level of per capita income.     

The impact of tourism and finance on women empowerment

The Goal-5 of United Nations Development Agenda for gender equality and women empowerment through equalizing the ratio of girls and boys enrolment in primary education remains suffered in almost every part of the globalized world, which does not even violate the basic human rights while it is the mandatory foundation for global peace and prosperity. The contribution of international tourism development to empower women is the key initiative of the developed world to provide an equal opportunity to the women to sustain their livelihoods. This study focused on the role of international tourism development on women empowerment through mediating a number of financial factors in a panel of 24 selected European countries, over a period of 1990–2015. The results show that financial intermediaries act as a catalyst to empower women through international tourism. More specifically, tourism and financial factors promote (i) gender parity in tertiary enrollment, (ii) gender parity in primary and secondary school enrollment, (iii) female employment, and (iv) women’s share in non-agriculture wage employment, while the results further support the (i) growth-led tourism, (ii) finance-led growth, (iii) growth stimulate women empowerment, and (iv) tourism-induced women’s empowerment hypothesis across countries.     

The causal relationship among electricity consumption,economic growth and capital stock in Iran

Due to the progress in industries, electricity consumption (EC) plays a vital role in economic growth (EG) as one of the important components of production. Furthermore, the influence of capital stock (CS) and labor is significant in EG. The main purpose of this paper is to examine causality and relationship among EG, EC, and CS, to forecast these variables and to propose related policy viewpoints for Iran. The empirical findings indicate the lack of short-run causality between pairwise variables. The results of standard Granger-causality (SGC) test demonstrate a bi-directional long-run causality between EC and EG and a uni-directional long-run causality from EC to CS. To forecast variables, the vector auto regression (VAR) model is estimated using logged variables. The Ariño and Franses approach is applied to transform time series data and forecast variables. The performance of the estimated VAR model is investigated and it clarified a highly accurate estimation with mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of less than 4% for all variables. The results of the impulse response function (IRF) analysis indicate the dynamic behavior of long-run causalities. Therefore, to reduce EC and avoid negative impact on EG, Iran should adopt appropriate and affordable policies to raise efficiency optimization of EC. Finally, four policies including privatization, industrialization, supervision of banking resources and allocation of credits and liberalization of electricity prices are proposed.     

Decolonial strategies in world politics: C.L.R. James and the writing and playing of cricket

Discussions of decolonizing world politics have flourished in international studies recently but few of these engage with popular culture, especially sports. In this paper, I address this gap and consider sports – specifically the sport of cricket – as a global phenomenon, useful for discussing key decolonizing strategies. This paper argues that cricket, as a form of popular culture, offers language and practices to critique oppressive sociopolitical norms and global hierarchies. It draws upon the cricket-writing of C.L.R. James, specifically his book Beyond a Boundary, as well as on the experiences of playing cricket to outline some decolonial strategies. These strategies include shifting perspectives on world politics, the role of biography and autobiography as critique, and the relevance of positionality in describing global processes and in the construction of knowledge. Overall, this paper claims that popular culture, especially those which are popular in the Global South, offers ways to rethink and rework relations between the powerful and less powerful. Cricket provides examples of ways in which these various decolonial strategies can be enacted in practice.