论皮尔斯的现象学范畴

受康德影响,皮尔斯极为重视范畴演绎,他试图找到比康德范畴更普遍的基本范畴.1902年以后,范畴演绎进入现象学时期,基本范畴最终确定为第一性、第二性和第三性.范畴演绎是皮尔斯哲学的基石,是皮尔斯建构体系最重要的方法和工具.     

党的四代领导集体的青少年道德观与启示

从毛泽东到胡锦涛的四代领导人的青少年道德观,是针对具体历史条件,对青少年道德建设提出的一系列论述的集中体现。从整体看,他们把青少年道德建设与中国特色社会主义相结合,与青少年健康成长相渗透,与青少年全面发展相统一,使得社会主义道德观具有了鲜明的方向性、协调性、时代性,体现出了鲜明的创新性。从“全面发展”到“社会主义荣辱观”的演进过程,是我们党的四代领导人青少年道德观的创新过程。分析与学习四代领导集体的青少年道德观,对于进一步推进青少年思想道德建设有积极意义。     

试论美国外交史学中的“威斯康星学派”之形成

美国外交史学中的“威斯康星学派”是一个富有特色的学派。该学派之所以能够在20世纪60年代崛起于威斯康星大学,除了威大历史上的进步主义史学传统这一丰厚的思想资源外,一个激进的史学家社区的存在,及紧密的私人情谊,是该学派得以创立的根本保证。正是通过威廉斯,美国外交史学中的“进步主义”传统才得以从查尔斯·比尔德、哈林顿一代,传递给了拉夫伯、加德纳和麦考密克一代;也正是威廉斯组建了一个人员基础雄厚的激进知识分子社区,并通过这一社区,把他本人以及拉夫伯等人置放在富有成果的思想脉络当中,从而获得创新的能量,然后打开局面,开宗立派。     

高校房产管理系统的设计与实现

通过对房产数据进行符合GIS要求的质量检查、数据编辑的研究,将编辑完成的CAD格式文件通过GIS平台提供的空间数据引擎功能转换存储到GIS数据库中,减小重复录入的工作量,也有利于系统数据的及时性。这有利于减轻GIS软件开发者的负担,而且增强了GIS软件的可扩展性。GIS应用开发者,只需熟悉基于Windows平台的通用集成开发环境,以及GIS各个控件的属性、方法和事件,就可以完成高校房产信息管理的开发与集成工作。     

Empirical Bayes regression analysis with many regressors but fewer observations

In this paper, we consider the prediction problem in multiple linear regression model in which the number of predictor variables, p, is extremely large compared to the number of available observations, n  . The least-squares predictor based on a generalized inverse is not efficient. We propose six empirical Bayes estimators of the regression parameters. Three of them are shown to have uniformly lower prediction error than the least-squares predictors when the vector of regressor variables are assumed to be random with mean vector zero and the covariance matrix (1/n)X^tX$(1/n){\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}\mathit{X}$ where X^t=(_x1,…,_xn)${\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}=({\mathit{x}}_1,\dots ,{\mathit{x}}_n)$ is the p×n$p\times n$ matrix of observations on the regressor vector centered from their sample means. For other estimators, we use simulation to show its superiority over the least-squares predictor.     

Using pilot study information to increase efficiency in clinical trials

It is often necessary to conduct a pilot study to determine the sample size required for a clinical trial. Due to differences in sampling environments, the pilot data are usually discarded after sample size calculation. This paper tries to use the pilot information to modify the subsequent testing procedure when a two-sided t$t$-test or a regression model is used to compare two treatments. The new test maintains the required significance level regardless of the dissimilarity between the pilot and the target populations, but increases the power when the two are similar. The test is constructed based on the posterior distribution of the parameters given the pilot study information, but its properties are investigated from a frequentist's viewpoint. Due to the small likelihood of an irrelevant pilot population, the new approach is a viable alternative to the current practice.     

Sensitivity analysis of longitudinal data with intermittent missing values

Several models for longitudinal data with nonrandom missingness are available. The selection model of Diggle and Kenward is one of these models. It has been mentioned by many authors that this model depends on untested modelling assumptions, such as the response distribution, from the observed data. So, a sensitivity analysis of the study’s conclusions for such assumptions is needed. The stochastic EM algorithm is proposed and developed to handle continuous longitudinal data with nonrandom intermittent missing values when the responses have non-normal distribution. This is a step in investigating the sensitivity of the parameter estimates to the change of the response distribution. The proposed technique is applied to real data from the International Breast Cancer Study Group.     

Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

社会学的想象与想象的社会学:帕森斯、米尔斯社会学研究进路比较论要

帕森斯的社会理论和米尔斯的社会研究是“二战”后美国社会学的两条重要且独特的研究路径。帕森斯倡导社会科学中的一般理论研究,核心在于理论和经验的互惠发展的动力学,意在促进社会科学的积累性发展,但确立统一的社会科学无异于建立一种不可能实现的“学术巴别塔”。米尔斯强调的基于社会学想象的社会研究纲领,实质上是一种政治导向的社会研究,最终难免落入学术和政治的双重“想象”困境。研究范式的差异,导致他们对其身处的美国社会作出了判然有别的研究论断。进而言之,这种差异的背后隐含着研究者对现代性问题的不同态度以及政治立场上的深刻分歧。     

以“匠人精神”,写“社会学的诗”:米尔斯的社会学遗产之重估

在米尔斯诞辰百年之际,本文试图重估其社会学遗产。本文指出,米尔斯作为“智识匠人”的志业,即是从内外两个面向揭示美国文明自19世纪末以来的转型及其危机。就内部面向而言,本文聚焦于米尔斯及其同时代的批评者关于美国社会的不同判断及其分歧的实质;就外部面向而言,本文则以米尔斯关于古巴革命的晚期著述为核心,考察米尔斯对古巴问题的讨论在何种意义上构成了对美国民主的外部批评。但是,对米尔斯的社会学遗产的重估,并不止步于此。米尔斯关于社会学写作的文体和“风格”的想象,即其关于“社会学的诗”的论述,构成了其学术遗产的另一个重要部分。本文指出,“社会学的诗”所倡导的审美与人格意蕴,实则是对社会学写作的人文传统的回归。最后,本文讨论了在中文学界的语境下,米尔斯的社会学研究所具有的启发意义。