Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

社会学的想象与想象的社会学:帕森斯、米尔斯社会学研究进路比较论要

帕森斯的社会理论和米尔斯的社会研究是“二战”后美国社会学的两条重要且独特的研究路径。帕森斯倡导社会科学中的一般理论研究,核心在于理论和经验的互惠发展的动力学,意在促进社会科学的积累性发展,但确立统一的社会科学无异于建立一种不可能实现的“学术巴别塔”。米尔斯强调的基于社会学想象的社会研究纲领,实质上是一种政治导向的社会研究,最终难免落入学术和政治的双重“想象”困境。研究范式的差异,导致他们对其身处的美国社会作出了判然有别的研究论断。进而言之,这种差异的背后隐含着研究者对现代性问题的不同态度以及政治立场上的深刻分歧。     

以“匠人精神”,写“社会学的诗”:米尔斯的社会学遗产之重估

在米尔斯诞辰百年之际,本文试图重估其社会学遗产。本文指出,米尔斯作为“智识匠人”的志业,即是从内外两个面向揭示美国文明自19世纪末以来的转型及其危机。就内部面向而言,本文聚焦于米尔斯及其同时代的批评者关于美国社会的不同判断及其分歧的实质;就外部面向而言,本文则以米尔斯关于古巴革命的晚期著述为核心,考察米尔斯对古巴问题的讨论在何种意义上构成了对美国民主的外部批评。但是,对米尔斯的社会学遗产的重估,并不止步于此。米尔斯关于社会学写作的文体和“风格”的想象,即其关于“社会学的诗”的论述,构成了其学术遗产的另一个重要部分。本文指出,“社会学的诗”所倡导的审美与人格意蕴,实则是对社会学写作的人文传统的回归。最后,本文讨论了在中文学界的语境下,米尔斯的社会学研究所具有的启发意义。     

Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting (IT) on output growth over the “globalization years” of 1986-2004. Employing static panel data methods that control for traditional growth determinants, trade openness and financial globalization, the paper finds that the adoption of a fully fledged IT regime results in higher output income per capita for industrial and emerging economies. However, under dynamic model specifications, the estimated long-run output impact of inflation targeting for emerging market economies is found to be lower than in the case of static models. We argue that this might be due to the long lags until the full effects of greater credibility are felt in the real economy and the fact that emerging market economies adopted the regime much later than industrial economies.     

Efficiency of financial market intermediation in Kenya: A comparative analysis

Wide interest margins as witnessed in Kenya are a sign of a repressed and inefficient financial sector. This paper carries out a cross-country analysis of the determinants of financial market efficiency using panel cointegration with a view to recommending policy options for improving the efficiency of the financial sector intermediation process in Kenya. The study finds that the major contributors to the differences in financial sector inefficiency in Kenya compared to the other countries in the study are high bank operating costs, default risk and financial market structure. The study recommends, among other measures, that the government through the Central Bank need to collaborate with the commercial banks and establish a working credit reference bureau to enable easy identification of credit worthy customers in order to reduce default risk; there is also need by the central bank to license more new banks to increase competition and reduce bank concentration. The study also recommends increased use of technology including phone-banking and e-banking to reduce operation costs of the banks. The paper concludes that contrary to the findings from other cross-country analysis, the factors that lead to financial market in/efficiency varies from one country to the other.     

C语言课程设计教学新模式的构建与实现

课程设计是计算机专业培养方案的重要组成部分,是计算机专业实践教学体系的核心内容之一。针对C语言课程设计没有达到它原本培养学生解决实际问题能力为目标的现状,本文在分析C语言课程设计教学中存在的问题基础上,提出了一种行之有效的教学新模式。本模式按照模块化实训、案例剖析、实战开发的教学步骤,逐步提高学生的动手能力和独立地获取知识的能力,激发学生对课程设计的兴趣,加强学生的软件工程思维模式的培养。     

C+C合建站中脉冲雷达新工作模式精度分析

介绍了雷达测量精度相关原理、测量误差的计算方法以及C+C合建站的基本工作原理,分析了合建站中单脉冲测量雷达系统与统一测控系统角度测量误差分量的异同,并计算了C+C合建站中脉冲雷达新工作模式的测量误差,通过处理实测数据验证脉冲雷达新工作模式的测量精度.     

自酿葡萄酒的卫生指标和理化指标的检测

本实验以手工酿造的葡萄酒为原料,分别用维生素C试验盒法、密度瓶法、甲醇比色法和大肠菌群9管发酵法来测定葡萄酒酿造过程中的酒精度、甲醇的含量,维生素C含量、菌落总数和大肠菌群情况.结果显示,自酿葡萄酒的酒精度达（8.24～8.28）%、甲醇含量为0.029g/100mL,符合国家新标准中规定的红葡萄酒甲醇含量.维生素C随着酿造时间的延长,含量逐渐下降,由20d的28.536μg/mL降低到90d的25.013μg/mL.菌落总数和大肠菌群均符合国家标准.     

The effect of education,income inequality and merit on inequality acceptance

A large number of observational and experimental studies have explored the determinants of individual preferences for redistribution. In general, inequalities are more likely to be accepted by people of higher socioeconomic status, in richer societies and when inequalities are perceived as justifiable owing to differences in productivity. Almås et al. (2020) show that in a relatively unequal society (the United States), the highly educated accept inequality significantly more than the less educated, whereas, in a relatively equal society (Norway), the less educated accept inequality more, but not significantly more, than the highly educated. Here, we replicate this finding using data from experiments conducted in four locations across three countries all distinct from the ones studied by Almås et al. However, a closer look at the data indicates that the origin of the interaction effect varies depending on which societies one compares. Data for Norway and the United States indicate that meritocratic values among the highly educated are less prevalent in more equal societies and that this is the driver of the triple interaction effect. In contrast, in our data the interaction effects have multiple drivers.     

Decolonial strategies in world politics: C.L.R. James and the writing and playing of cricket

Discussions of decolonizing world politics have flourished in international studies recently but few of these engage with popular culture, especially sports. In this paper, I address this gap and consider sports – specifically the sport of cricket – as a global phenomenon, useful for discussing key decolonizing strategies. This paper argues that cricket, as a form of popular culture, offers language and practices to critique oppressive sociopolitical norms and global hierarchies. It draws upon the cricket-writing of C.L.R. James, specifically his book Beyond a Boundary, as well as on the experiences of playing cricket to outline some decolonial strategies. These strategies include shifting perspectives on world politics, the role of biography and autobiography as critique, and the relevance of positionality in describing global processes and in the construction of knowledge. Overall, this paper claims that popular culture, especially those which are popular in the Global South, offers ways to rethink and rework relations between the powerful and less powerful. Cricket provides examples of ways in which these various decolonial strategies can be enacted in practice.