Codependent Cycles of Chinese Inflation

A test and decomposition of the codependent cycles of the consumer price index (CPI), agricultural producer price index (APPI) and M2 reveals that the sharp cyclical fluctuations in agricultural producer prices largely stem from the grain price fluctuations induced by factors such as land enclosure and the impact on APP of the abrupt changes in pork prices and other factors. Therefore, changing the current policy of grain purchasing price subsidies to one of subsidies to grain production and sales will reduce the impact of grain prices and other factors on APP and inflation. The weak cyclic codependence among APP, CPI and M2, along with the strong cyclic codependence between M2 and CPI, has given rise to a “shuttle-shaped” intersection of cyclic elements. This indicates that China’s monetary policy goal has been alternating between curbing inflation and stimulating growth. When the APP cycle is basically stable, China can implement a moderately easing monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, but this must be based on a 1.5 or so margin of increase in the codependent cycle components of M2. When APP rises sharply or is in the rising phase of cycle elements, China should emphasize APP control, and should delay the moderately easing monetary policy till the APP cycle becomes stable or is in the downlink phase.     

The Secular and Cyclical Behavior of Real GDP in 19 OECD Countries, 1957–1983

Log per capita real gross domestic product is modeled as a third-order autoregression with a pair of complex roots whose amplitude is smaller than the amplitude of the real root. The behavior of this terms series is interpreted in terms of these two amplitudes, the periodicity of the complex roots, and the standard deviation of the disturbance. Restrictions are evaluated and inference is conducted using the likelihood principle, applying Monte Carlo integration with importance sampling. These Bayesian procedures efficiently cope with restrictions that are awkward taking a classical approach. We find very little difference in the amplitudes of real roots between countries and of complex roots relative to within-country uncertainty. There are some substantial differences in the periodicities of complex roots, and the greatest differences between countries are found in the standard deviation of the disturbance.     

Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

Critical Bellman–Harris branching processes with infinite variance allowing state-dependent immigration

The branching processes with state-dependent immigration are considered as alternating regenerative processes. The main purpose is to demonstrate some new “regenerative” methods. Critical Bellman–Harris branching processes with state-dependent immigration are investigated and new limit theorems are obtained in the case of an infinite offspring variance and possibly infinite mean of the immigrants.     

Fault-free mutually independent Hamiltonian cycles in hypercubes with faulty edges

Two Hamiltonian paths are said to be fully independent if the ith vertices of both paths are distinct for all i between 1 and n, where n is the number of vertices of the given graph. Hamiltonian paths in a set are said to be mutually fully independent if two arbitrary Hamiltonian paths in the set are fully independent. On the other hand, two Hamiltonian cycles are independent starting at v if both cycles start at a common vertex v and the ith vertices of both cycles are distinct for all i between 2 and n. Hamiltonian cycles in a set are said to be mutually independent starting at v if any two different cycles in the set are independent starting at v. The n-dimensional hypercube is widely used as the architecture for parallel machines. In this paper, we study its fault-tolerant property and show that an n-dimensional hypercube with at most n−2 faulty edges can embed a set of fault-free mutually fully independent Hamiltonian paths between two adjacent vertices, and can embed a set of fault-free mutually independent Hamiltonian cycles starting at a given vertex. The number of tolerable faulty edges is optimal with respect to a worst case. An extended abstract of this paper appeared in Proceedings of the 2006 International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information and Control (ICICIC), pp. 288–292, IEEE Computer Society Press.     

构建新发展格局视域下的营商环境治理研究

营商环境治理作为中国国家治理的重要部分,是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要标志,也是中国式现代化在经济领域的突出表现,彰显着国家治理现代化水平。因此,要牢牢把握营商环境发展方向,坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和党的二十大精神为指导、以中国式现代化为目标、以马克思主义中国化时代性成果和经验为基础,将营商环境的制度优势转化为国家治理效能。文章以中国式现代化作为营商环境治理的方向引领,以大国经济发展理论、新新贸易理论、马克思主义政治经济学为理论支撑,剖析了构建新发展格局视域下营商环境治理的内在机制,即大国经济理论从“人口规模巨大的现代化”出发,从人口规模多样性和市场多样性的现实角度,揭示了构建形成强大国内市场的重要意义;共同富裕、物质文明与精神文明相协调、人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化目标,与新新贸易理论中基于企业异质性、挖掘企业潜力、关注企业参与度与社会责任感、最终实现产业整体效益的逻辑相符合;马克思主义政治经济学追求的国民经济良性循环目标,从国内国际“双循环”的角度,诠释了“和平发展道路”的政治经济学内涵。其次,文章基于三大理论基础,解析新发展格局视域下营商环境治理促进经济发展的多维动态逻辑,即基于大国经济发展理论的要素市场化配置逻辑、基于新新贸易理论的产业链供应链升级逻辑与基于马克思主义政治经济学的现代流通体系建设逻辑。最后,文章将营商环境治理的多维动态逻辑融入中国当前构建新发展格局的目标取向和战略选择中,提出构建新发展格局视域下营商环境治理的市场化改革路径、创新驱动路径和“放管服”改革路径,三条作用路径相辅相成、协同发力,以制度创新为新发展格局经济体系注入源源不断的活力。     

Narrative transformation in child abuse reporting

This paper examines how a case of child abuse is turned into ‘political news’. It raises the following questions: (i) which moments in the chain of events concerning child abuse are selected for coverage by the media; (ii) what is the nature of the transformation of institutional events into a particular type of covered event; and (iii) what is the dynamics of struggle over definitions of reality and the projection of certain causal links. We compare how the trade press and the national press report child abuse by concentrating on three different cycles of a particular case, Stephanie Fox (cycle 1: discovery of Stephanie's death; cycle 2: the conviction of Stephen Fox; and cycle 3: the inquiry report). Our primary focus is on the narrative transformation of the storyline as different voices and discourses are recruited to substantiate different agendas. We show how different rhetorical strategies are deployed to account for the facts of the case, while linking this up with the current situation of the reader of such media reports. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forging the links: (de)constructing chains of behaviours

This paper will discuss an article by Becker and French (2005) in this Journal which proposed the general acceptance of correlations or the ‘links’ between child abuse, animal abuse and domestic violence. Becker and French claim this topic has ‘seen a growth of interest’ (p. 399) over the past two decades and they suggest that organizations across the UK should ‘institutionalize the “links” within policy and practice’ (p. 410). In this paper we question the appropriateness of linking different forms of violence in such a mechanistic and predictive way by drawing on and extending arguments we have made elsewhere. We consider the proposed ‘links’ in terms of assumptions, de?nitions, methods and logic, and raise concerns for a prospective practice which is based on retrospective (and ?awed) research. We aim to appeal to in?uential doubters (social workers, child care workers, animal welfare workers, vets, educators and policy‐makers) in a language of ‘reason’, and we propose that the identi?ed reluctance of professionals in the UK to adopt the rhetoric of ‘links’ can be viewed as an informed and re?ective response. Throughout, we offer a corrective commentary to the ?awed assumptions of the ‘links’ argument and seek to encourage others to remain sceptical about these claims and the suggested implications for practice. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡库区肉牛生产综合技术

该文根据三峡库区肉牛生产现状和生产中的技术问题 ,参考国内外肉牛生产先进技术和经验 ,提出其肉牛生产“五推五改一防”综合技术方案。该技术方案针对性强 ,对三峡库区肉牛生产具有指导性意义     

信息网络化对宏观经济管理的影响

建立在信息技术基础上的信息网络化产生的影响已经渗透到了现代经济活动的许多领域。在我国经济的宏观层面上 ,信息网络化无论对经济的总体运行还是对政府在宏观经济管理中的作用、经济调控方式、甚至具体宏观经济政策都有不同程度的影响。深入、系统地研究信息网络化在宏观经济层面上产生的影响 ,对提高政府宏观经济调控的能力和有效性有重要的现实意义