试析阿瑞吉资本主义体系积累周期理论

乔万尼·阿瑞吉从马克思关于资本的一般公式中发现资本主义发展的规律,认为这一公式不仅描述了单个资本的发展,而且是世界资本主义历史周期性出现的内在逻辑。他在《漫长的20世纪——金钱、权力与我们社会的根源》一书中将世界资本主义演变过程划分为四个资本体系积累周期,分别是热那亚、荷兰、英国、美国体系积累周期。然而四个资本体系积累周期并非是截然分开的,受世界规模资本主义积累周期发展演变内在逻辑的支配。     

An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles, however, are found to be duration independent. More importantly, we find that the degree of duration dependence of the US stock market cycles has dropped after the launch of the NASDAQ index.     

“双循环”发展战略的内在逻辑和理论机制研究

不断升级的中美贸易摩擦与持续爆发的全球新冠肺炎疫情对世界经贸发展造成了重大冲击，全球性经济贸易衰退已经不可避免。面对发达国家市场萎缩、新兴市场体量不足、贸易保护主义兴起等一系列持续演变的风险和挑战，加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，不仅是应对外部环境复杂局势的战略定位，也是实现中国经济长期可持续发展的必由之路。文章立足于中国改革开放40多年来所取得的发展成就，归纳梳理中国已经积累的物质技术基础，基于中国当前所面临的国内经济结构调整和国际环境不确定性，探讨创新发展格局必须立足于"内循环"的时代背景及理论机制，分析国内国际"双循环"互相促进的战略意义，并据此提出政策建议。     

A joint test of fractional cyclic integration and a linear time trend

We propose in this article a joint test for testing simultaneously a deterministic trend component and the degree of integration of the cyclical component in a given time series. The test is directly derived from Robinson's (1994) procedure, which is based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Thus, it has standard null and local asymptotic distributions. However, finite-sample critical values of the tests are evaluated and, an empirical application using historical annual data, is also carried out at the end of the article.     

On demographic transition,structural change,and economic growth and stagnation

The paper analyzes an economy with an agrarian and an industrial sector. Demand is determined by Engel's Law. Population growth follows a non‐linear income dependent path according to the theory of demographic transition. In case of decreasing returns to scale in the agrarian sector the existence of a stable low‐income equilibrium with high population growth can be shown. If this equilibrium is globally unstable, the system evolves towards a steady‐state of perpetual economic growth and low population growth. The path of demographic transition coincides with a path of structural change from an economy specialized in agriculture to a fully industrialized economy. The introduction of an income dependent savings rate allows the interpretation of the low‐income equilibrium as a limit cycle and, therefore, the explanation of high fluctuations in population growth and per capita income in least developed economies.     

浅析海州五大宫调的结构形态和艺术特色

海州五大宫调是流传在江苏海州一带（今连云港市及周边地区）以[软平]、[叠落]、[鹂调]、[波扬]五个曲牌为主要内容的一种古老的民间音乐演唱形式。是明清俗曲在江苏的重要一支,2006年5月被国务院批准进入国家级非物质文化遗产名录。它分为大调和小调两类,在演唱形式上又分为单支和套曲。套曲中的一种为集曲,堪称我国民间音乐的绝唱。它具有自娱自乐、南北交汇和雅俗和谐等鲜明的艺术特色。     

一类非线性微分系统极限环的存在唯一性

利用后继函数法研究了一类非线性微分系统极限环的相关问题,获得了该系统极限环的存在性,唯一性和不存在性的完整结果.     

中国经济周期的典型事实

文章考察了1952~1999年间我国经济周期性波动的统计规律性,并从中概括出我国经济周期的典型事实。其结果表明:就经济波动的持久性、不同变量的相对波动程度和协同变动而言,我国经济周期性波动的特征与其他国家经济周期的典型事实基本一致,不过在波动幅度上存在很大差异。以1978年作为分界点,对典型事实所作的动态稳定性检验表明,改革后我国经济周期性波动的幅度显著降低了。但是,经济周期的其他大多数典型事实具有时间上的稳定性。     

On the (Sample) Condorcet Efficiency of Majority Rule: An alternative view of majority cycles and social homogeneity

The Condorcet efficiency of a social choice procedure is usually defined as the probability that this procedure coincides with the majority winner (or majority ordering) in random samples, given a majority winner exists (or given the majority ordering is transitive). Consequently, it is in effect a conditional probability that two sample statistics coincide, given certain side conditions. We raise a different issue of Condorcet efficiencies: What is the probability that a social choice procedure applied to a sample matches with the majority preferences of the population from which the sample was drawn? We investigate the canonical case where the sample statistic is itself also majority rule and the samples are drawn from real world distributions gathered from national election surveys in Germany, France, and the United States. We relate the results to the existing literature on majority cycles and social homogeneity. We find that these samples rarely display majority cycles, whereas the probability that a sample misrepresents the majority preferences of the underlying population varies dramatically and always exceeds the probability that the sample displays cyclic majority preferences. Social homogeneity plays a fundamental role in the type of Condorcet efficiency investigated here.

     

企业核心能力的框架及学习模型

企业核心能力是企业通过战略管理对内外部资源进行鉴别、获取、整合利用以形成竞争优势的一个动态过程.它是企业在信息空间中通过由审视、解决问题、抽象、扩散、吸收和影响组成的学习循环将数据提升为信息继而为知识的过程.因此,它具有独特性、难以模仿性和不可替代性.